| IN THIS ISSUE |
|
|
|
 |
TEXAS RANGERS Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart |
Return to Top |
Acquire RHP Ryan Dempster from the Chicago Cubs for 3B-R Christian Villanueva and RHP Kyle Hendricks. [7/31]
Texas still holds the lead in the AL West, but with some activity from the Angels earlier in the week and some disturbing developments in their own rotation, this was a move the Rangers were under considerable pressure to make. Yu Darvish should be fine at the front of the staff, but the dual losses of Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz to Tommy John surgery made the Rangers' rotation vulnerable. It seems unlikely that Matt Harrison will continue his success as a starting pitcher, and Derek Holland and Scott Feldman have been uninspiring so far this year. As a result, it won’t be too difficult for the Rangers to make room for Dempster.
It also keeps Dempster out of the Yankees' hands; at one point, New York was rumored to have actually acquired the pitcher. Division leads might have played a small part in the decision to trade for a rotation upgrade.
Right now, this is strictly a rental for the Rangers; Dempster is eligible for free agency after the season. And with a deal this close to the trade deadline, there wouldn’t have been any way to get a window to talk to the pitcher about a possible extension. But the Rangers have the means to make an attractive offer to Dempster if they wish to retain him after the season. He has been pitching out of his mind this season, but nothing about his performance screams “sustainable,” given a .244 BABIP. Still, even before this year, he’d managed to transform himself from a journeyman and reliever to an above-average starter who can give you 200 innings in a season. Teams always have a use for pitchers like that, so he’ll likely be looking at a handsome reward on the free-agent market if the Rangers don’t offer him enough to stick around.
The Cubs have to be relieved to have dealt one of their two big trading chips, after famously whiffing on a deal to send Dempster to the Braves. This is the second deadline deal between the Rangers for the Cubs, who sent Dempster's batterymate, Geovany Soto, to Texas last night. —Colin Wyers
 |
CHICAGO CUBS Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart |
Return to Top |
Acquire 3B-R Christian Villanueva and RHP Kyle Hendricks from the Texas Rangers for RHP Ryan Dempster. [7/31]
Signed out of Mexico in 2008, the 21-year-old Villanueva is one of those players whose greatest strength might be a lack of weaknesses. He has a good idea at the plate and a quick bat; he uses all fields and projects as a .280 hitter in the big leagues. He has gap power now, and scouts believe that will turn into solid average power down the road as he fills out, with 15-20 home run potential. He's a good athlete and an average runner, and an easy plus defender with a strong arm. He's a bit on the small side at 5-foot-11, which hurts his projection, but he looks like he should be a solid-average everyday third baseman if his development stays on track.
An eighth-round pick in 2011 out of Dartmouth, Hendricks has had a successful full-season debut, with a 2.82 ERA and a remarkable 112-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 130.2 innings for High-A Myrtle Beach. Based on those numbers, it's no surprise that some feel he has the best control in the system. That's also his best asset, as his below-average fastball sits at 86-90 mph with a bit of life, and his arsenal is no more than average across the board. He succeeds by throwing strikes and changing speeds, and it will be a challenge for him to find the same success at the upper levels while lacking an out pitch. —Kevin Goldstein
Thank you for reading
This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.
Subscribe now
He's at the peak of his value right now, the Cubs get two prospects and some cash. It's a pretty decent deal given the constraints the Cubs had to work with.
And you are missing the broader point; Dempster is not accepting a one-year qualifying offer (in the absence of a serious injury over the next two months). His actual value is only relevant if he accepts a one-year qualifying offer, which he assuredly will not. If he does, the Cubs have chalked up a huge win.
Again, the value question here is Dempster + (salary) + sandwich pick versus Villanueva.
Dempster obviously would like to stay in Chicago which is why he utilized his 10-5 rights. Thus, I think the chances of him accepting a qualifying offer, even if it's below his market value, are quite high. So, fast forward a year and the Cubs again want to trade him at the deadline. If he's lucky enough to be unhurt, he definitely won't have a nice-looking 2.25 ERA, his perceived value would go down and he'd be less likely to warrant the kind of return the Cubs got for them. In addition, he'd be even more likely to accept the Cubs 2014 qualifying offer, which means the Cubs would have to let him walk without any kind of compensation.
As far as sandwich picks go versus Villanueva, he's already had some minor league success and he projects as a major league average third baseman, if not a tick better. That's more value than a lot of second round picks.
I grant you, Dempster's value is unlikely to increase. He is 35, and his ERA is, perhaps, a bit of a fluke. Discounting the really improbable, I still believe he was unlikely to accept arbitration, so the equation is still Dempster vs. sandwich pick (and, yes, more money than I have). You answered that question; you believe Villanueva is at least as good as the pick; that is all I was asking.
(Superfluous side argument: staying in Chicago was clearly not such a priority for Dempster or else he wouldn't be, you know, a Ranger.)
I always enjoy your thoughts, Richard. For the Cubs, let's hope Villanuava has some value.
Besides, there is some PR involved. If he refused the Rangers, chances are the Cubs would never take him back and he might generate some ill-will around the league which might hurt his free agent prospects.
I like to think he'll try to re-sign with the Cubs just like he saw Kerry Wood do.
I do enjoy talking with you, as I have in the past whether we agree or disagree. It's nice to see you and others here have an intelligent and civil discussion, even if I find the minusbats a little annoying. I may disagree with what you're saying, but I don't think you deserve minuses.
:)