Last July, Sam Miller administered a blind BABIP test, providing nine GIFs of batted-ball outs and nine GIFs of hits but cutting them off just before the point at which contact was made. The purpose was to test whether we could tell which would be which, based on all the visual information we had about the pitch prior to the point of contact. We failed with flying colors.
So this is a catcher framing version of that. Below you'll find 10 pairs of GIFs. One pitch on each row is a called strike, and the other is a ball, but I've cut them off before the umpire starts to signal either way. All of the pitches are from this past Wednesday, and all of them are on 0-0 counts.
Record your guesses and leave them in the comments section, or email me by clicking the email button below, or send me a tweet @ben_lindbergh. You can just list your responses ("The strikes are on the 1. Left 2. Right 3. Left", etc.), or you can include explanations of why you guessed the way you did. I'm interested either way. I'll tally up the responses and report back next time. Maybe I'll do it again at the end of the season to see if we've gotten any better at predicting strikes after watching catchers frame pitches for the next few months.
You'll find all the usual "This Week in Catcher Framing" features below the test. You might want to let your browser load for a while, so that the GIFs don't destroy it.
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***
League Leaders
The Best (min. 30 OZoneStrikes+ZoneBalls)
Ratio
|
Catcher |
OZoneStrikes |
ZoneBalls |
Ratio |
|
108 |
49 |
2.20 |
|
|
37 |
17 |
2.18 |
|
|
24 |
12 |
2.00 |
|
|
58 |
37 |
1.57 |
|
|
97 |
69 |
1.41 |
|
|
73 |
54 |
1.35 |
|
|
41 |
32 |
1.28 |
|
|
27 |
22 |
1.23 |
|
|
67 |
55 |
1.22 |
|
|
58 |
54 |
1.07 |
Runs
|
Catcher |
OZoneStrikes |
ZoneBalls |
Runs |
|
Jonathan Lucroy |
108 |
49 |
7.7 |
|
Yadier Molina |
97 |
69 |
3.6 |
|
Evan Gattis |
58 |
37 |
2.7 |
|
Carlos Corporan |
37 |
17 |
2.6 |
|
Francisco Cervelli |
73 |
54 |
2.5 |
|
Hank Conger |
24 |
12 |
1.6 |
|
Erik Kratz |
67 |
55 |
1.6 |
|
Jose Lobaton |
41 |
32 |
1.2 |
|
Wilson Ramos |
27 |
22 |
0.7 |
|
Jose Molina |
58 |
54 |
0.5 |
- If it's possible to be a dominant pitch framer, Lucroy is doing it.
- Remember the terrible defensive problems Conger had in spring training? Since the regular season started, he hasn't committed a throwing error, he's caught one of two attempted basestealers, and he's done a fine job of framing. No catcher will ever replace Jeff Mathis in Mike Scioscia's heart, but Conger must at least be winning a grudging regard.
- I spoke to Cervelli yesterday about his apparent improvement behind the plate—prior to this season, he'd been a below-average framer. More on that next week.
The Worst (min. 30 OZoneStrikes+ZoneBalls)
Ratio
|
Catcher |
OZoneStrikes |
ZoneBalls |
Ratio |
|
8 |
24 |
0.33 |
|
|
29 |
80 |
0.36 |
|
|
45 |
110 |
0.41 |
|
|
40 |
92 |
0.43 |
|
|
21 |
47 |
0.45 |
|
|
44 |
94 |
0.47 |
|
|
17 |
35 |
0.49 |
|
|
61 |
121 |
0.50 |
|
|
21 |
41 |
0.51 |
|
|
40 |
78 |
0.51 |
Runs
|
Catcher |
OZoneStrikes |
ZoneBalls |
Runs |
|
Nick Hundley |
45 |
110 |
-8.5 |
|
Matt Wieters |
61 |
121 |
-7.8 |
|
Chris Iannetta |
40 |
92 |
-6.8 |
|
Jesus Montero |
29 |
80 |
-6.6 |
|
Rob Brantly |
44 |
94 |
-6.5 |
|
A.J. Pierzynski |
40 |
78 |
-4.9 |
|
47 |
84 |
-4.8 |
|
|
41 |
74 |
-4.3 |
|
|
Gerald Laird |
21 |
47 |
-3.4 |
|
T-10 John Jaso |
34 |
59 |
-3.3 |
|
T-10 A.J. Ellis |
50 |
75 |
-3.3 |
- Last week, I said it was strange that Matt Wieters, Yorvit Torrealba, and Ryan Hanigan were on the list of the bottom 10 backstops. Now only Wieters remains, but he holds a prominent place.
This Week in Molina, 4/18-4/24
Weekly Net Strikes: -5
Weekly Net Runs: -0.65
Weekly Playing Time: 5 G, 5 GS, 46.0 innings
Yearly Playing Time: 17 G, 13 GS, 118.3 innings
Yearly Net Strikes: 4
Yearly Net Runs: 0.5
It was a net negative week for Molina, but he's still above even on the season. And his best frames of the week were still pretty sexy:
3. Date: 4/24
Batter: Francisco Cervelli
Pitcher: Alex Cobb
Umpire: Sam Holbrook
Count: 2-2
Pitch type: 92-mph four-seam fastball
Distance from Strike Zone: 0.195 feet
Cervelli wins the week's best batter reaction:
He also said some very complimentary things about the Molinas to me, which I'll relay next week as well.
2. Date: 4/24
Batter: Robinson Cano
Pitcher: Alex Cobb
Umpire: Sam Holbrook
Count: 0-0
Pitch type: 79-mph curveball
Distance from Strike Zone: 0.223 feet
1. Date: 4/21
Batter: Josh Reddick
Pitcher: Roberto Hernandez
Umpire: Jeff Nelson
Count: 2-2
Pitch type: 93-mph sinker
Distance from Strike Zone: 0.279 feet
And Reddick is the runner-up for this week's best batter reaction:
One nice thing about watching a bunch of called strikes every week is that you start to recognize umpire punchouts. Jeff Nelson's is one of the best. It's pretty much a prelude to the People's Elbow.
We have Lucroy's framing valued at 117.6 runs over the past three seasons (in 23,439 pitches) and Molina's at 115.4 runs (in 13,759 pitches). That makes Molina the reigning pitch-per-pitch champion, but because Lucroy has been so great this season, I'm adding him to the weekly update rotation. Welcome to "This Week in Lucroy."
This Week in Lucroy, 4/18-4/24
Weekly Net Strikes: 3
Weekly Net Runs: 0.39
Weekly Playing Time: 6 G, 6 GS, 30.0 innings
Yearly Playing Time: 18 G, 16 GS, 54.0 innings
Yearly Net Strikes: 59
Yearly Net Runs: 7.7
3. Date: 4/23
Batter: Will Venable
Pitcher: Jim Henderson
Umpire: Gary Darling
Count: 2-0
Pitch type: 93-mph four-seam fastball
Distance from Strike Zone: 0.288 feet
2. Date: 4/23
Batter: Will Venable
Pitcher: Yovani Gallardo
Umpire: Gary Darling
Count: 0-0
Pitch type: 79-mph curveball
Distance from Strike Zone: 0.355 feet
This is a low pitch, and Lucroy gets even lower to receive it by going down to one knee. That helps explain his uncanny ability to get low strikes.
3. Date: 4/24
Batter: Chase Headley
Pitcher: Marco Estrada
Umpire: Paul Emmel
Count: 1-1
Pitch type: 89-mph four-seam fastball
Distance from Strike Zone: 0.453 feet
This seems like a solid reception, but it also looks like a pretty nice pitch, and maybe not as far from the zone as PITCHf/x says. On to the best and worst frames of the week among all catchers:
Best Frames of the Week
5. Date: 4/23
Catcher: Yadier Molina
Batter: Jayson Werth
Pitcher: Adam Wainwright
Umpire: Cory Blaser
Count: 0-0
Pitch type: 92-mph sinker
Distance from Strike Zone: 0.384 feet
Textbook.
4. Date: 4/21
Catcher: Chris Stewart
Batter: Maicer Izturis
Pitcher: Ivan Nova
Umpire: Tim Timmons
Count: 0-1
Pitch type: 95-mph two-seam fastball
Distance from Strike Zone: 0.396 feet
Stewart has been buried behind Cervelli in the early going, but New York's pitching staff is in good hands no matter which one is catching.
3. Date: 4/24
Catcher: Jason Castro
Batter: Endy Chavez
Pitcher: Bud Norris
Umpire: Tom Hallion
Count: 0-0
Pitch type: 89-mph four-seam fastball
Distance from Strike Zone: 0.448 feet
Carlos Corporan has been the better Astros framer so far this season, but Castro's technique looks okay here.
2. Date: 4/24
Catcher: Jonathan Lucroy
Batter: Chase Headley
Pitcher: Marco Estrada
Umpire: Paul Emmel
Count: 1-1
Pitch type: 89-mph four-seam fastball
Distance from Strike Zone: 0.453 feet
This is the Lucroy frame of the week we saw earlier.
1. Date: 4/21
Catcher: Yan Gomes
Batter: Marwin Gonzalez
Pitcher: Joe Smith
Umpire: Dan Bellino
Count: 1-0
Pitch type: 90-mph sinker
Distance from Strike Zone: 0.544 feet
This is a low delivery, but the call may have had as much to do with Gonzalez's extreme crouch (which made the ball look higher relative to his strike zone) as it did Gomes' glove.
Worst Frames of the Week
5. Date: 4/22
Catcher: Carlos Santana
Batter: Jeff Keppinger
Pitcher: Justin Masterson
Umpire: Jeff Kellogg
Count: 1-0
Pitch type: 92-mph sinker
Distance from Center: 0.466 feet
Masterson misses his spot by a bit here, but Santana's reception is still too stabby.
4. Date: 4/20
Catcher: Chris Iannetta
Batter: Alex Avila
Pitcher: Michael Roth
Umpire: Paul Emmel
Count: 0-1
Pitch type: 91-mph sinker
Distance from Center: 0.423 feet
Sliding after the catch isn't a great way to get calls. This pitch looks slightly outside, and maybe it was, but imagine what it might have looked like if Iannetta had stayed still.
3. Date: 4/23
Catcher: Gerald Laird
Batter: Michael Cuddyer
Pitcher: Cory Gearrin
Umpire: Wally Bell
Count: 0-1
Pitch type: 87-mph sinker
Distance from Center: 0.374 feet
Can only kind of see the plate, but that pitch looks like it crossed the corner.
2. Date: 4/19
Catcher: Nick Hundley
Batter: Hunter Pence
Pitcher: Edinson Volquez
Umpire: James Hoye
Count: 1-0
Pitch type: 93-mph four-seam fastball
Distance from Center: 0.557 feet
Maybe more of a Volquez error than a Hundley mistake, though Hundley didn't do anything to minimize the amount by which the pitch appeared to miss. Volquez had his first career start of at least seven innings without a walk on Wednesday, with Hundley catching, but it doesn't seem as if his catcher got him any extra strikes in that outing:
1. Date: 4/22
Catcher: Jose Lobaton
Batter: Brett Gardner
Pitcher: Matt Moore
Umpire: Andy Fletcher
Count: 1-0
Pitch type: 93-mph four-seam fastball
Distance from Center: 0.335 feet
The new, aggressive Brett Gardner didn't swing, but that looks like a strike. Could be that Lobaton's collapsing knees during the delivery distract the ump. Could be it was just a bad call.
Thanks to Ryan Lind for research assistance.
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You have changed the way I watch baseball games. I now spend my time evaluating the catcher instead of what the pitcher or hitter is doing. I'm not sure that I even care what the score of the game is anymore. Thanks for nothing.
If I do well then you get the credit, this series has done a great job explaining the markers to look for. Doug Thorburn has done the same excellent job explaining pitching posture. It would be great if BP could have similar series on hitting and fielding posture.
Basically their ERAs are 2.5x with Laird than Gattis so far.
However, that being said, I think Gattis is much better defensively than what we were told by scouts. He seems to have a great arm, blocks pitches in the dirt, and does well at framing. I don't think Laird is a super great defensive catcher but he isn't horrible either.
The only public work I know of on looking into how much missing the target impacts the probability of getting a strike on a borderline pitch was done by Max for the fourth PITCHf/x summit, when he was granted access to some of Sportvision's COMMANDf/x data (the tech that tracks the position of the catcher's glove). He looked at borderline pitches (which he defined as those with a 40-60% probability of being called a strike), and then he calculated the distance between the target and where the pitch ended up. The average distance from strikes was 0.85 feet, and the average distance for balls was 1.04 feet. So there is some trend toward pitches that hit the target being called strikes, but unfortunately, we don't have access to all of that data.
Looks like Dave Holgado and I think similarly. Some of these pairs are so different (like 4LR & 5LR), I'm going to have a hard time ascribing the outcome to the catcher, whatever the outcome.
Was the ump in 6. so jumpy because Jerry Lane had already left the game with a broken finger?
2. right -- really tough call b/c it's kind of a sloppy snag back into the zone and the other catcher doesn't have any glove carry.
3. right -- the pitch is just closer to the zone. Also very Molina-esque snag
4. left -- another Molina snag
5. right -- Molina snag
6. right -- pitch's in the same spot but receiver's glove is more over the plate
7. left -- catcher's glove moves to much, just like Hundley example above
8. left -- not as noticeable as 7 but still more glove movement
9. left -- right catcher's glove falls out of the zone
10. right -- Molina snag
P.S. I know it's not proper terminology but whenever I watch Yadi or Jose behind the dish they're doing the "Molina snag," sorry I can't think of a better way to describe it but yall know what i'm talking about
LRRRLLLLLR
You would need to create an "umpire" factor to somehow quantify this subjective call, much like park factors. At least with park factors, the wall distance doesnt change from day to day. An umpires strike zone may.
Add to it that you are trying to add value to something in which a subjective judgement call was made in error. Just toooooooo noisy of a data set to make any sort of conclusion. There is also the part where a catcher can get penalized simply because he is catching a pitcher with bad command/control....its a lot like the old CERA stat that was tried.
Jonathan Lucroy is good at framing pitches, but he is a below average catcher. His arm isnt very good, and his footwork behind home plate is sub par. This is why Catcher defense is so difficult to address because a big part of what goes into the position defensively is his ability to move smoothly to get pitches, get into position to make throws and catch, calling a game, etc.
There isnt a catcher in the world that was drafted or developed because of his pitch framing ability.
And I'm not sure how you reach the conclusion in your last sentence--receiving skills are widely considered an important part of a catcher's skill set. Lucroy doesn't have a great arm, but it's not awful. Even if it were, his ability to get extra strikes would more than make up for it.
P.S. I would agree with you that pitch-framing analysis is becoming a bit overexposed. Not sure we need weekly columns on it.
So I'll attempt to justify. A couple of these - notable #2 & #3 - show the catchers (White Sox & Dodgers in those two) dropping the mitt to the ground and then pulling it up to the ball. The mitt seems to be traveling a long way to the ball.
In #2 the Padres' catcher drops the mitt but the ball lands low, so he isn't required to move the glove more than a couple of inches.
Since I attempted to find a pattern and haven't gone back to read the older articles in the series yet (I will!), I would assume my reasoning is illogical, unsound, or just misses the boat.
1. L
2. R the most difficult choice of the ten
3. L
4. R glove movement on L seems too obvious
5. R nice knee drop technique
6. L more still
7. L another knee drop
8. L the R is too stabby
9. R too much glove movement on L
10. L glove moves, but whole catcher moves on R
2. Left… Again the catcher shows movement in the head.’
3. Left … Again same head bob…. Is it bad I am watching the catcher and not where the pitch goes?
4. Right….this has been the toughest one. The left has the head bob down but makes a very clean grab. The right the catcher almost lets the pitch keep carrying his glove upward. I almost feel I am going right just because I had 3 lefts in a row.
5. Right…. I don’t like how the catcher stabs at the ball but the left pic shows my hated headbob.
6. Left… these are two of the better ones but the late grab and dip on the right pushes me to pick Left who just stays really stable through out.
7. Left…. Even though it looks like Perdo Hernedez is catching :) He stays very stable except for dropping his left knee at the end. On the other hand the right looks like he is reaching back, flipping the glove, just blah!
8. Left…the right has too much stab while the left looks very very stable body even with the slight head dip.
9. Another tough one…. The left has the glove move up and then go back down… the right has the glove just track and frame nicely but there is the head bob. I’m going to go LEFT because the right frame even the umps head seams to dip at the end
10. Right…. The left the glove moves up and away after the catch the right it moves back down just a little
2. Right. Although I like both frame jobs. Not much movement by either.
3. Right. Dodger catcher does a bad job with the old college style of framing.
4. Left. Cervelli is an excellent receiver now and frames really well.
5. Left. D-back catcher is very lazy with this pitch, collapsing his throw hand leg. Too much movement.
6. Left. Nice job by Ross here. The A's catcher has far too much body movement and actually leans forward from the waist on this pitch.
7. Right. Both catchers look awkward here. Not really a good job by either.
8. Left
9. Right.
10. Left.
2. Right
3. Right
4. Left
5. Right
6. Right
7. Left
8. Left
9. Left
10. Right
with the proviso that I may be wrong on every last one of these, although I have been following this series faithfully, and learning from it (or so I thought).
One suggestion for what has become one of my favorite BP series this year. Any chance of setting these up with pushable radar buttons poll-style? I've found it hard to keep consistency between what I was saying to myself as I saw the GIFs and what I wrote in the reply at the end of the article. This is such an excellent feature that making it easy to use, and therefore getting it used by a wider cross section of readers, would make it not just excellent but a valuable tool.
2.Left
3.Right
4.Right
5.Left
6.Left
7.Left
8.Left
9.Right
10.Left
Definitely overthinking most of these picks.
2. Right
3. Right
4. Right
5. Left
6. Left
7. Right
8. Left
9. Right
10. Right
1. L
2. L
3. R
4. R
5. R
6. L
7. L
8. L
9. R
10. L
LLLRRLRLRR