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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 389: 2014 Season Preview Series: Pittsburgh Pirates

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February 19, 2014


Ben and Sam preview the Pirates' season with Michael Clair, and Nick talks to Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Pirates reporter Travis Sawchik (at 27:45).

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BillJohnson
2/19
Wow. So they really do expect ultra-regression. I'm shocked. I would have expected a post-regression Pittsburgh to be a middle-of-the-pack team, not a bottom-ten bunch. There are just too many other teams in baseball that really aren't very good.
Reply to BillJohnson
neastws
2/20
I think the biggest issue is that they have so many guys expected to regress negatively but nobody who really had a down year and has room to bounce back.

Going by 2013 WARP-Projected 2014 WARP:

McCutchen: -2 Wins
Alvarez: -2.1 Wins
Marte: -0.9 Wins
Martin: -1.1 Wins
Walker: -0.6 Wins
Mercer: +0.4 Wins
Liriano: -0.7 Wins
Melancon: -0.7 Wins

So -7.7 Wins from those guys regressing, then another -1.6 for losing Burnett, and you're at -9.3. They won 94 games last year, but only 88 games by Pythagorean record, so if you subtract the 9 wins from that they are at 79 wins, close to PECOTA's 78.

Reply to neastws