Raising Aces: Stuffing the Ballot

With the end of the regular season comes the start of awards season, kicking off debates over the ballplayers who had the most remarkable performances in 2014. MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year—these are the mainstream awards that will be wrestled over the next month—but here at Raising Aces we like to acknowledge another set of awards: the best stuff of the past season.

There are three categories for Best Stuff of 2014: fastballs, breaking balls, and off-speed pitches. There are three candidates for each category, and a pitcher can be eligible for multiple categories if his repertoire is deserving. A blend of objective and subjective information was utilized in formulating the final three candidates in each category, and pitch-count thresholds were used to frame the categories.

I encourage the readers to cast their votes in the comments section by selecting a favorite in each category. Write-in candidates are welcome. Please confine the votes to starting pitchers only, as relievers will be covered on a future ballot.

[stats through games of 9/26]

The Heat

(minimum 800 fastballs)

Yordano Ventura

Avg Velo	Whiff/Sw %	Opp AVG	Opp SLG
98.2 mph	24.50%	.222	.339

Ventura won the radar gun title (brought to you by Stalker) among starting pitchers, averaging more than 98 mph and frequently hitting triple digits. It takes more than raw velo to dominate at the highest level, and Ventura has utilized subtle movement mixed with a deep arsenal to keep hitters off balance. He generates late swings in buckets with his heat, and he finished third among all qualifying pitchers with a whiff-per-swing rate of 24.5 percent. He registered 55 strikeouts in at-bats that ended with the four-seamer, most among his pitch types, and though his four-seam K total was juxtaposed with 41 walks, it's also common for pitchers to lean on the straight pitch when they find themselves in a three-ball count.

Ventura also owned the two-seam category in terms of raw velocity, just for good measure, averaging 97.7 mph on the fastball variation. Throw in an occasional cutter that averages 95 mph, and the right-hander possesses the ability to throw hot lava rocks with a touch of English in multiple directions. The six-foot-no-inch Ventura has been followed by the standard doubts which accompany a pitcher who lacks ideal size, and though his high-powered delivery does raise questions with regard to durability, nobody should be knocking his downhill plane—Ventura has a vertical release point that averaged 6.34 feet this season, which comes out to a positive Z score of 0.46 on the spectrum of MLB pitchers.

Chris Sale

Avg Velo	Whiff/Sw %	Opp AVG	Opp SLG
94.9 mph	23.93%	.207	.278

The vulture is deceptive, from his wing-spread delivery to his unique release. Sale cruises at 94-96 mph and can hit 98, with a different flight path than any other starter in the game. The horizontal movement on his fastball is ludicrous, averaging 11.4 inches per four-seamer, a mark which is not only the highest in baseball but which outpaces the second-highest tally by 2.7 inches (Z score of positive 2.54, for those scoring at home). The release point also impacts his downhill plane, resulting in a vertical movement score of just 6.7 inches, which is the fourth-lowest value among pitchers who have thrown at least 500 four-seamers this year (Z score of -1.53). Despite this relatively flat flight path, Sale has given up just two homers on the four-seam this season, serving as yet another counterexample to the conventional wisdom that surrounds downhill plane. He can register the punchout with any of his three put-away pitches, but the four-seam fastball outnumbers the other bullets with 76 strikeouts in 2014.

For most pitchers, the batting-against numbers are relatively rough when comparing fastballs to secondaries, but Sale has been extremely difficult for opposing batters to square up when he reaches for gas. His whiff-per-swing rate on the fastball ranks eighth among qualifying pitchers this year, and the lanky left-hander has coaxed more batters to come up empty as the season has progressed, increasing his percentage of fastball whiffs in each of the last four months. There's tons of funk and some mechanical red flags during the delivery, but he consistently finishes in a strong position, with plus-plus posture and exceptional extension at release point that further disguises the incoming pitch.

Madison Bumgarner

Avg Velo	Whiff/Sw %	Opp AVG	Opp SLG
92.8 mph	28.47%	.204	.350

Bumgarner breaks the mold of typical candidates for best fastball, utilizing a relatively modest 91-94 mph heater that earns bonus points from the left side but pales in comparison to the infernos that are stoked by the previous two candidates. So it might surprise some to learn that Bummer has registered the highest whiff-per-swing rate on his fastball in all of baseball this season.

He shares some similarities to Sale, including a deceptive delivery, a low release point, and great extension that comes from the south side of the mound. Bumgarner is superior in terms of balance and repetition, with an extremely consistent release point that supports his impeccable command. Opposing batters have a very difficult time with pitch recognition when facing Bummer, given the natural cut on his fastball that echoes the flight path of his oft-used slutter, a combination that is optimized by his robotic delivery. The K-to-walk ratio on his four-seamer was an unbelievable 93-to-15 this season, and opposing hitters had a lower OPS against the fastball than any of his secondaries. The two-year consistency of his batted-ball numbers suggest that this fastball is more than just a mirage.

The Breaks

(minimum 400 breaking balls)

Jake Arrieta, Curve

Pitch Count	Avg Velo	Whiff/Sw %	Opp AVG	Opp SLG
427	80.1 mph	42.62%	.152	.229

Arrieta has exploded onto the scene this year, and though it took a mechanical adjustment to ramp up the pitch command, the big bender has been the straw that stirs the drink in 2014. The only pitch in his repertoire that averages less than 87 mph, the curve creates a disparate timing pattern to complement his 92-96 mph fastball along with the steep flight path to offer a different look from his tight slider.

His whiff-per-swing rate ranks first on the list of pitchers who have thrown more than 400 hammers this year, and though semantic definition of curves and sliders will slide him down the breaking-ball ranks, his curve is personified by excellent depth that ranks in the league's top five (at -9.43 inches of vertical movement). His slider has generated more K's due to his heavier usage of the pitch, but his whiff rate pails in comparison to that of the curve and opposing batters have had a bit less difficulty against the slide. He uses the curveball against batters from both sides, but the pitch is more commonly summoned when he gets ahead in the count against a left-handed stick.

Corey Kluber, Slider

Pitch Count	Avg Velo	Whiff/Sw %	Opp AVG	Opp SLG
549	83.5 mph	45.12%	.090	.123

Kluber was the breakout pitcher of 2014, and his dominant finish to the season (including 39 strikeouts across his final three starts) might have been enough to earn him a Cy Young award when all is said and done. The right-hander was a personal favorite heading into the season, thanks to A-grade mechanics that supported his elite command with the pure stuff to match. The fastball velocity grew a half-tick from last season, but it was the slider that stood out as Kluber ascended from pitcher-of-intrigue pitcher to Cy Young contender.

His frequency of whiffs-per-swing ranks fourth among baseball's sliders and he has registered an incredible 128 strikeouts with the pitch, while batters fared poorly on contact with just six extra-base hits (zero homers) in 212 at-bats that ended on the slide. He throws the pitch at a relatively modest 15.7-percent rate overall, with a tendency to put the slider in his back pocket until a strikeout is in order. The right-hander throws the breaking ball with two shapes yet similar velocity on each, tempting some to put a curveball label on his breaker given the steep vertical trajectory that he will produce on occasion, yet the discrepancy in flight path with his two-plane model suggests that Kluber might consider these to be distinct pitches in his repertoire.

Clayton Kershaw, Slider

Pitch Count	Avg Velo	Whiff/Sw %	Opp AVG	Opp SLG
758	88.1 mph	45.64%	.150	.232

Kershaw makes a repeat appearance on the list of the game's top breaking balls, though he makes this year's list as a result of his slider rather than his curve. Both pitches are near-elite, and it can certainly be argued that they play equal roles in his overall dominance, but the slider was the more effective offering in 2014. His whiff-per-swing rate was the second-best mark in the game, and he utilized the slider to a greater degree than his competitors for this year's prize.

Kersh goes to the slider nearly 30 percent of the time, twice as often as the curve, and the velocity is only 5.5 mph off of his average fastball. It's an offering that he will mix in with the first pitch occasionally, and his usage pattern holds firm regardless of batter handedness, but the southpaw leans heavily on the fastball early in the count before unleashing the breakers. The slider has accounted for more than 100 of his strikeouts this season, and though the curve has been even more devastating on a per-at-bat basis, it's the slide that is more trusted by the best pitcher in MLB.

El Cambio

(minimum 400 Off Speed pitches)

Stephen Strasburg, Changeup

Pitch Count	Velo Diff	Whiff/Sw %	Opp AVG	Opp SLG
647	-6.7 mph	46.87%	.151	.226

Strasburg makes the cut for the second consecutive season, but unlike Kershaw, Stras is being honored for the same pitch as he was the previous year. Strasburg has elite stuff, with much-deserved recognition owed to his fastball and curve, but it is the changeup that set him apart in 2014. His development has been remarkable in this sense (the mechanics are another story), as the guy was first known for his triple-digit fastball, then the curve stole the highlight reels, and now the change has morphed into Strasburg's most effective pitch.

Working off of fastball velocity in the mid-to-high 90s, his changeup would be confused with a lesser man's heat if not for the heavy movement on the pitch. He runs el cambio in the 88-91 mph range, with late movement, great depth, and arm-side run; a combination that led to the highest whiff-per-swing rate in all of baseball this season for a single pitch type (minimum 400 thrown). He uses the pitch against all batters and in any count, further adding to his advantage as he plays the chess match versus opposing hitters.

Felix Hernandez, Changeup

Pitch Count	Velo Diff	Whiff/Sw %	Opp AVG	Opp SLG
1054	-3.7 mph	40.76%	.117	.187

The King throws changeups in great abundance, with a higher velocity than Strasburg (the Hernandez cambio averages 89.9 mph) and a shockingly small speed differential between the heater and the change. He throws baseballs that hit every digit on the radar gun between 87 and 95 mph, with varying degrees of arm-side movement, and he tends to start with sinkers and four-seamers earlier in the count before unleashing the change.

The King has used the cambio to generate a mind-blowing 135 strikeouts this season, as the extra movement combined with the speed differential messes with a hitter's timing. With excellent arm action that mimics that of his fastball variations, Hernandez has racked up a top-five rate of whiffs-per-swing among pitcher changeups, and his batted-ball numbers reflect the helplessness of opposing hitters when they can muster contact. It's pretty amazing what an elite pitcher can do with a modified grip and a few degrees of pronation.

Masahiro Tanaka, Split

Pitch Count	Velo Diff	Whiff/Sw %	Opp AVG	Opp SLG
502	-5.4 mph	46.42%	.138	.192

The splitter of Tanaka was legend even before he made his MLB debut, and true to form, the pitch was a key component of his rapid acclimation to the highest level. The Tanaka split is the most vivid example of a “trap door” splitter in the game, as the bottom completely drops out of the pitch as it fades into oblivion late in its flight path.

The trap-door split can be devastating to opposing batters, particularly given the fastball arm-angle and likewise spin-axis that accompany the split-fingered pitch. There are a limited number of pitchers who rely heavily on the split, but Tanaka's stands tall when compared to any off-speed pitch, and his whiff-per-swing rate is the highest among pitchers who threw 300 or more splitters this season. A pitcher's ability to repeat his delivery and hit his spots is paramount to the heater-splitter approach, and Tanaka, despite some mechanical obstacles to repetition, has excelled in these areas to fuel an approach that featured fastball or split two-thirds of the time. His dependency on the split is reflected in a 25.8-percent usage pattern that is heavily tilted to two-strike scenarios, such that opposing left-handers can expect the split to surface on more than half of all pitches when Tanaka is ahead in the count.

This year's off-speed group is particularly intriguing, with each candidate having a relatively low velocity difference from the fastball in preference to movement and location … and here we were thinking that “bigger is better” with respect to to changing speeds.