One of the more interesting sub-plots this off-season is the Yankees-Red Sox cold war that’s been played out in the transactions wires. In terms of coffers and willingness to spend, the Yankees are still in a class by themselves, but the Red Sox now occupy–also by themselves, it seems–the next highest economic sub-strata. And in this particular Cold War, don’t expect anyone to bust out the glasnost. Metaphor, over.
With the Yankees, we’ve seen what happens when spending prowess intersects with reasonable front-office intelligence. Now, with Theo Epstein as GM and a sporting-gentleman owner loosely holding the purse-strings, the Red Sox have joined the Yanks in this rarified air. The talent both clubs have amassed this winter and in winters past is striking. The Yankees may have frittered away Andy Pettitte and lost Roger Clemens to hometown longing, but they may have actually upgraded the rotation by importing the wholly underrated Javier Vazquez and the still effective Kevin Brown. Additionally, Gary Sheffield has been added to an already potent lineup.
In Boston, they have most pieces of the AL’s best offense back in the fold, and they added Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke to the pitching corps. Given the concentration of talent on both teams, I was led to wonder: Can I assemble an “All-Star Team” using only Yankees and Red Sox that’s better than the team that could be cobbled together using every other team in the league? With an assist from the outrageously cool 2004 PECOTA weighted-mean forecasts, let’s take a whack at it…
First, some criteria. For each position, I’m selecting the player with the highest Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) from the available pool of players. That goes for pitchers and relievers, as well. So, for the “Non-Yankee/Red Sox All-Stars” that means the player with the highest projected VORP who’s not toiling for the Yanks or Red Sox. In selecting the DHs for each team, I’ve limited my choices to true DHs or corner defenders only. For instance, plugging in, say, Derek Jeter as the Yanks/Sox DH would present an inflated ranking, since his VORP is determined by his standing with regard to other shortstops and not other designated hitters.
We’ll call the Yankees/Red Sox team “NY-BOS United,” and we’ll call the All-Star assemblage of the remaining 28 teams the “Nons” (or, for the kids and hipster-marketing types, the “Nonzzzz”). Without further ado…
NY-BOS United: Hitters
Player AB EqAVG EqOBP EqSLG VORP ------------------------------------------------------------ C Jorge Posada 417 .266 .377 .478 35.3 1B Jason Giambi 472 .287 .425 .578 59.6 2B Alfonso Soriano 624 .295 .349 .533 55.5 3B Bill Mueller 391 .270 .351 .425 22.1 SS Nomar Garciaparra 584 .304 .359 .507 52.1 LF Manny Ramirez 514 .308 .409 .585 57.1 CF Bernie Williams 436 .290 .383 .457 25.9 RF Gary Sheffield 507 .303 .397 .535 44.2 DH David Ortiz 414 .273 .360 .536 28.7 TOTAL 380.5
The Nons: Hitters
Player AB EqAVG EqOBP EqSLG VORP ------------------------------------------------------------ C Pudge Rodriguez 454 .292 .352 .495 35.4 1B Todd Helton 541 .310 .408 .562 58.5 2B Jeff Kent 451 .289 .350 .521 38.9 3B Scott Rolen 528 .285 .375 .534 54.7 SS Alex Rodriguez 576 .299 .398 .604 83.2 LF Barry Bonds 378 .343 .516 .795 105.9 CF Carlos Beltran 532 .288 .368 .505 36.8 RF Bobby Abreu 538 .300 .402 .525 45.6 DH Albert Pujols 572 .329 .416 .622 75.0 TOTAL 534.0
As you can see, that’s a pretty substantial advantage for the Nons–roughly 15 wins difference. Despite the notable offensive talent on NY-BOS United, they just can’t compensate for the A-Rod/Bonds/Pujols Trio of Unspeakable Destruction.
Now let’s see how the rotations stack up…
NY-BOS United
Starter IP EqERA VORP -------------------------------------------- 1 Pedro Martinez 183 2.37 70.0 2 Javier Vazquez 224 3.32 61.7 3 Mike Mussina 213 3.41 56.3 4 Curt Schilling 186 3.19 55.8 5 Kevin Brown 175 3.69 38.9 TOTAL 282.7
And the Nons…
The Nons
Starter IP EqERA VORP -------------------------------------------- 1 Mark Prior 199 2.97 57.6 2 Roy Halladay 224 3.71 48.5 3 Kerry Wood 212 3.60 46.3 4 Tim Hudson 215 3.74 45.6 5 Esteban Loaiza 201 3.97 40.4 TOTAL 238.4
The Yankees/Sox rotation, over the course of a season, is about four-and-a-half wins better than the top five starters from the entire remainder of the league. That’s a staggeringly impressive concentration of starting pitching. Going into the bullpen competition, the Nons still lead NY-BOS United by a VORP score of 772.4 to 663.6.
The pens…
NY-BOS United
Reliever IP EqERA VORP -------------------------------------------- Tom Gordon 85 3.32 25.3 Keith Foulke 77 3.04 25.0 Mariano Rivera 62 3.06 19.8 Scott Williamson 67 3.90 14.9 Mike Timlin 61 3.64 14.8 Byung-Hyun Kim 134 3.31 36.9 TOTAL 136.7
The Nons
Reliever IP EqERA VORP -------------------------------------------- Eric Gagne 89 2.32 32.5 Billy Wagner 76 2.60 24.6 Octavio Dotel 78 3.17 22.9 Damaso Marte 75 3.14 22.9 Francisco Cordero 84 3.35 23.5 Danys Baez 99 3.71 22.4 TOTAL 148.8
The sixth man in each bullpen, you may have noticed, is a reliever-cum-spot starter, with the only stipulation being that the majority of his PECOTA-projected appearances must be in relief. Also, the pens have been assembled based on VORP scores and without any attempt to strike a balance between lefties and righties. Another win for the Nons, albeit a narrow one of 12.1 runs. That makes the final tally Nons 921.2, NY-BOS United 800.3. So, no, as great and as packed to the gills with talent as the Red Sox and Yankees are, they’re not better than the chimerical team that the other 28 teams can throw together. While that hardly qualifies as breaking news, it is noteworthy that NY-BOS United can field a markedly better rotation than the rest of league can, even in orchestration. And what’s more telling is that, if you put these two teams in a hypothetical division race, the fused Yanks/Sox outfit finishes only 12 games behind the Nons, give or take a tilt or two.
The upshot is this: pity the rest of the AL East.
Thank you for reading
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