Transaction Analysis: What’s Chapmaning

NEW YORK YANKEES Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart

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Acquired LHP Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in exchange for RHPs Caleb Cotham and Rookie Davis, 2B-R Tony Renda, and 3B-L Eric Jagielo. [12/28]

Here's a trade that should make you feel uncomfortable. Chapman is now two months removed from firing his gun eight times following an argument and physical altercation with his girlfriend and child's mother. (That none of the above resulted in an arrest might make you feel uncomfortable, too.)

Without legal repercussions to worry about, the closest thing to punishment Chapman will face will come from baseball itself. Commissioner Rob Manfred has yet to issue a suspension or fine stemming from the game's new domestic violence policy, so who knows what that will entail. This much is obvious: In a perverse way, Chapman's new team is benefiting from his violence. The Yankees not only acquired Chapman for less than it would've cost them in July or early October, but they could gain an additional year of control if Chapman gets a suspension longer than 45 days, thereby pushing back his free agency date. What a mess.

Invariably, plenty will say this is how sports work and have always worked. Fans don't pay to see choir boys, you see, so teams don't limit their employee pool to those with outstanding moral fiber. Instead, if a player is talented enough—and Chapman obviously and evidently is—then they can do just about anything while maintaining job security. Whether it should be this way, hey, there are many things in this world that shouldn't be the way they are; why would baseball or pro sports be any different, right? Or wrong, since baseball fancies itself a family game, while employing these types suggests otherwise.

No matter where you fall on that debate, Chapman is going to inspire ballpark and living-room conversations that you wouldn't expect to have during a baseball game. And, from a super-wide lens perspective, maybe that's a tiny positive in a rotten situation; the outrage means people care and want change for the better. This isn't to suggest that fans are somehow the biggest victims here—they aren't—but if you care about player morals at all, it could be a sign that things will get better someday.

Because this is a baseball site covering a baseball trade, there are certain expectations that must be met. Let's satisfy those by now discussing Chapman the ballplayer, as opposed to Chapman the person.

The on-the-field ramifications here are straightforward: Chapman is one of the best closers in the game. He converts his freakish flexibility and arm speed into impossible velocity and strikeout tallies, and gives the Yankees three of last season's top 14 pitchers, according to DRA-. Chapman also gives Joe Girardi another reason to limit Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances' workload—and remember, Girardi already went to great lengths to limit their burden—and/or Brian Cashman an excuse to trade Andrew Miller. Provided Cashman passes on that opportunity, the Yankees have the makings of a special late-game trio—one that ought to make for brief seventh, eighth, and ninth half-innings.

That should make Yankees fans feel good about the baseball portion of this deal, even if the human part of the deal leaves them icky. —R.J. Anderson

Fantasy Impact

Aroldis Chapman

The omnipresent cloud of uncertainty hanging over Chapman’s future makes him one of the most challenging fantasy assets to analyze heading into 2016. The move to New York only further complicates matters, as he joins a bullpen with an established closer (Miller) and one of the elite set-up men in the game (Betances). Unless the Yankees are prepared to name Chapman their undisputed closer heading into the impending campaign, his fantasy stock will take an immediate hit in re-draft formats.

There’s no denying that New York has assembled arguably the most dominant trifecta of relievers ever, which is saying something, given that they used to roll out some guy named Mariano Rivera. In 2015, Chapman, Miller and Betances ranked first, second and third, respectively, in strikeouts-per-nine (K/9), combining for an absurd 347 strikeouts in just 212 and two-third innings.

Individually, they’re fantastic. However, from a fantasy perspective, it’s a major problem that they’re all on the same roster, since only one of them can close. Right now, the smart money is on Miller, at least to open the year. But even in a setup capacity, there is no disputing the Cuban flamethrower’s Statcast-breaking talent. The numbers over the past three seasons are insane.

Even if he isn’t closing, Chapman, who finished as the fourth-best reliever in standard mixed leagues (earning $19) last year, is worthy of consideration as a top-10 fantasy reliever this upcoming season. He’s just that good.

Andrew Miller

The southpaw finished last season as the junior circuit’s top reliever, earning $23 in AL-only formats, while only Mark Melancon ($21) earned more in standard mixed leagues. Given the uncertainty surrounding both Chapman’s roster status and future role in New York, both for 2016 and beyond (as an impending free agent), it would be foolish to panic completely, especially in keeper and dynasty formats. It’s unlikely that Miller is either traded or removed from the closer's role entirely to open the season, but the Chapman acquisition trims his margin for error to razor-thin levels. There is a strong possibility Miller remains the primary closer, but at the very least, he should drop from a sure top-five fantasy reliever to the tail-end of the top 10 in 2016 re-draft leagues.

Dellin Betances

The Chapman acquisition virtually eliminates any path to the ninth inning, but it also opens the door for Betances to potentially rack up even more innings this upcoming season. The 27-year-old followed up his 2014 breakout performance with a 2.13 DRA in 84 innings (74 appearances), earning $18 in standard mixed leagues ($20 in AL-only formats). With the Chapman/Miller tandem locking down the final six outs, there is a strong possibility his usage pattern becomes similar to that of a rich-man’s Steve Geltz, capable of working multiple innings to bridge the gap between the rotation and back-end of the Yankee 'pen. —George Bissell

CINCINNATI REDS Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart

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Acquired RHPs Caleb Cotham and Rookie Davis, 2B-R Tony Renda, and 3B-L Eric Jagielo from the New York Yankees in exchange for LHP Aroldis Chapman. [12/28]

Jagielo has the best chance of becoming a regular in this deal, but he's far from a lock. He's a smart hitter who will work counts, and his feel for hitting gives him a chance for a solid-average hit tool. He's strong, and the natural loft in his swing makes him a 20-25 homer candidate. He's not a good defender at third and has battled injuries, so corner bench bat or DH is a real possibility.

In addition to having a name that will be mocked for years, Davis has back-end starter stuff. He sits 92-94 with his fastball, and he pounds the strike zone with all three pitches. Two of those pitches—the curveball and change —are only average at best, so you shouldn't expect more than a no. 4 starter.

Cotham should be able to help the Reds bullpen in 2016, though this is no Chapman replacement. He doesn't have a pitch to get quality lefties out, but his above-average fastball/slider combination with solid command should make him a competent middle-reliever.

Renda is your prototypical 25th man—if there is such a thing—and is essentially why the term “throw-in" was created. He makes a lot of contact and has a solid approach, but everything else is below average, and he's not particularly strong at any defensive position. If you see Renda starting for the Reds at any point in 2016 or beyond, a lot of players got hurt or tanking is very real. —Christopher Crawford

J.J. Hoover and Jumbo Diaz

The next man up for the Reds, barring a move to bring in a more established veteran, is Hoover. The 28-year-old right-hander has served as a capable set-up man in the past. He has always struggled with his command (4.1 BB/9 for his career) but the greater concern was the dip in strikeouts (7.3 K/9) last season.

Lurking in the shadows is the 31-year-old Diaz, who spent 13 years in the minors across five different organizations before making his debut in 2014. The strikeouts (10.1 K/9 over 97 career appearances) are enticing, but the pedestrian ERA (3.63) and WHIP (1.25) limit him to being an end-game target in deeper mixed leagues. Pegged as a top-75 pitcher by cFIP, a predictive pitching metric, to close out last season, Diaz is an intriguing saves sleeper for advanced metric-savvy fantasy owners to target in 2016. —George Bissell