Life at the Margins: Greatness, Nearby

We are now on the eve of the seventh baseball season of this, the second decade of baseball’s third century. If baseball were a trashy fantasy novel, this would be the year in which the miller’s/weaver’s/craftsman’s son, after seven years of blissful ignorance about his true identity as the Emperor of the Dwarves/King of the Mystic Realm/Grand Poobah of the Pyrenees, would be awoken to his fateful quest by some wizened old man hobbling up the hill to his house.

As it is, there’s a baseball season to play.

Before we do, though, it’s worth stopping and reflecting on the greatness we’ve already seen in the first six years of this decade. Most of us weren’t around to watch Joe DiMaggio in his prime. Even fewer watched Babe Ruth disrespect the game by showing up the pitcher with his called shot in the ‘32 World Series. But all of us—I’m assuming there are no 6-year-olds reading this piece, though good for you if you are—have been around to witness some truly transcendent performances over the past six years, and those performances are worth reflecting on and appreciated now, before the men who lived them have faded too far into history.

So, without further ado: The best single-season performances of the decade so far, by WARP, and sorted by position.

1 — The Pitchers

NAME	YEAR	AGE	GS	IP	R	BB	SO	FIP	cFIP	ERA	DRA	WARP
Justin Verlander	2011	28	34	251.0	73	57	250	3.03	70	2.40	1.92	9.2
Justin Verlander	2012	29	33	238.3	81	60	239	2.90	71	2.64	2.04	8.7
Clayton Kershaw	2015	27	33	232.7	62	42	301	2.02	56	2.13	2.16	7.9
Zack Greinke	2015	31	32	222.7	43	40	200	2.79	82	1.66	2.17	7.6
Jake Arrieta	2015	29	33	229.0	52	48	236	2.38	67	1.77	2.31	7.4

Well. There are two stories here, really. One is that, yes, last year’s NL Cy Young race was just as good as we all thought it was. The man with the lowest WARP (Arrieta) ended up taking home the prize, but given the tiny differences in the numbers, and the uncertainty baked into so many parts of the WARP equation, it’s best not to quibble too much. A three-sided die would have done as good a job as the voters did in picking a winner, and in any case picking a winner among the three men considered wasn’t the point. We were all winners, last year.

And then there’s Verlander. He wasn’t (and isn’t) a pitcher with stuff that sneaks up on you. He’s a pitcher with stuff that hits you in the face with its power, then hits you again when you try to get up. In 2011, when he put up an astonishing 9.2 WARP over 251 brilliant innings, he featured a fastball at 95, a changeup at 87, a slider at 86, and a curve at 80 even. And, what is more, he could put them wherever he wanted. As Verlander plays out the last years of his career in Detroit, remember that he used to pitch in a way that brought stadiums to their feet.

2 — Catchers

NAME	YEAR	AGE	PA	R	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	TAv	BWARP
Buster Posey	2012	25	610	78	24	69	96	.336	.408	.549	.213	.346	9.8
Yadier Molina	2012	29	563	65	22	45	55	.315	.373	.501	.186	.315	8.3
Brian McCann	2011	27	527	51	24	57	89	.270	.351	.466	.195	.291	8.2

As valuable as Verlander was in 2011, Posey was more valuable in 2012. Not by a lot—and again, you can mess with the numbers to come up with the opposite result—but the point is that Posey did what he did (which is triple-slash .336/.408/.549) as a 25-year-old catcher. That’s makes him a generational talent, and puts him more than a full win above Molina, who was brilliant in his own right in 2012, who’s likely on the downswing of his career at the moment (he’s got a wonky thumb), and who almost certainly has value that we’re not adequately capturing here.

And then there’s Brian McCann. He’s not the weirdest name you’ll see on this list—that’s coming, don’t you worry—but he’s also not what you think of when you think of generational talents. And yet. His strong performance in 2011 was driven, in large part, by our model’s belief that he is an extremely good defensive catcher: his 41 FRAA in 2011 was part of a sequence of five straight 25-plus marks from 2008 to 2012, and drove McCann to performances of 7.8 WARP or above in four straight years, from 2008 to 2011. Not bad, and better than you’d think.

3 — First Basemen

NAME	YEAR	AGE	PA	R	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	TAv	BWARP
Albert Pujols	2010	30	700	115	42	103	76	.312	.414	.596	.284	.357	10.4
Paul Goldschmidt	2015	27	695	103	33	118	151	.321	.435	.570	.249	.348	9.2
Joey Votto	2010	26	648	106	37	91	125	.324	.424	.600	.276	.362	7.8

Pujols, on the other hand, is exactly as good as you think. I mean, not now, obviously, but that’s sort of the point. The 2010 campaign put the finishing touches on a first decade in the game (he made his debut in 2001) that would have made him a first-ballot Hall of Famer had he retired on the spot, and all he did afterward was win a second championship (in 2011) and abscond to Anaheim, where he’s been much worse than he was before but also still good enough to rack up the counting stats that Hall of Fame voters love. Goldschmidt and Votto, meanwhile, were very good in 2015 (yes, Votto too, though 2010 is the season featured here) and will likely be very good in 2016, too. Let us enjoy them while we can.

4 — Second Basemen

NAME	YEAR	AGE	PA	R	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	TAv	BWARP
Matt Carpenter	2013	27	717	126	11	72	98	.318	.392	.481	.163	.312	7.3
Robinson Cano	2012	29	697	105	33	61	96	.313	.379	.550	.238	.319	6.9
Aaron Hill	2012	30	668	93	26	52	86	.302	.360	.522	.220	.296	6.8

Aaron Hill?!? Here are his WARP totals for the past six years:

2010, 0.5

2011, -0.3

2012, 6.8

2013, 1.8

2014, 0.2

2015, 0.7

Did you spot the outlier? It’s hard to know what to say here, because sometimes these things just happen out of nowhere. The fact is, as things stand right now, Aaron Hill has the third-best season by a second baseman this decade. And that’s a reality we’ll all just have to get used to. Meanwhile, Matt Carpenter was very good in 2013, and Robinson Cano has been very good for the better part of a decade, despite Safeco recently robbing him of some power. But you knew that already.

5 – Third Basemen

NAME	YEAR	AGE	PA	R	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	TAv	BWARP
Miguel Cabrera	2013	30	652	103	44	90	94	.348	.442	.636	.288	.372	7.9
Josh Donaldson	2015	29	711	122	41	73	133	.297	.371	.568	.271	.324	7.6
Nolan Arenado	2015	24	665	97	42	34	110	.287	.323	.575	.287	.299	7.5

Here, the interesting story is Nolan Arenado. His on-base-percentage last year wasn’t particularly exciting, and that’s usually hard to make up for, but one really good way to make up for it is to hit 42 home runs (yes, even at Coors) and play exceedingly good defense at third base. That’s what Arenado did last year as a 24-year-old, and it should make the next decade or so very interesting for fans of the young Floridian.

Another path to 7.5-ish WARP, of course, is to do what Josh Donaldson did, which is to walk twice as much as Arenado, hit 40-plus homers in a non-Coors park, and score 81 other times to boot. Because he got a late start on his life as a baseball superstar, Donaldson might never get the truly massive free agent payday he deserves, but don’t let that stop you from getting excited about what he can do. It’s a lot.

(Miguel Cabrera is an inner-circle Hall of Famer, and he had a good year in 2013.)

6 — Shortstops

NAME	YEAR	AGE	PA	R	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	TAv	BWARP
Jose Reyes	2011	28	586	101	7	43	41	.337	.384	.493	.156	.318	6.4
Troy Tulowitzki	2010	25	529	89	27	48	78	.315	.381	.568	.253	.319	6.3
Jean Segura	2013	23	623	74	12	25	84	.294	.329	.423	.129	.265	5.6

This is sort of a weird list, and there’s enough great young shortsops in the game right now (Correa, Russell, Lindor, etc.) that it’s quite likely that it’ll change dramatically before the decade is over. Still, Tulowitzki has had moments of brilliance in between debilitating injuries, and 2010 was one of those moments. In 2013, meanwhile, Segura found a way to hit enough to complement his excellent defense (that year, at least—2016 is an iffy proposition), and Jose Reyes had a very contact-y season in 2011 (look at those 41 strikeouts!). Again, this is a weak group, on the whole. Let’s move on.

7 — Left Fielders

NAME	YEAR	AGE	PA	R	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	TAv	BWARP
Alex Gordon	2011	27	688	101	23	67	139	.303	.376	.502	.200	.303	7.1
Josh Hamilton	2010	29	571	95	32	43	95	.359	.411	.633	.274	.336	7.0
Ryan Braun	2011	27	629	109	33	58	93	.332	.397	.597	.265	.345	6.9

Two fallen heroes, and one whose legend is still growing. Gordon has always been a plus-plus defender in left field, and in 2011 he married that skill with a wonderfully productive offensive season, resulting in the 7.1 WARP campaign you see above. The 2010 season is the one you remember Hamilton for, and also the year he helped lead the Rangers to their first of back-to-back AL titles. (Boy, that team faded quickly, didn’t it?) Braun, meanwhile, has gone to ignominy and ba…well, no. He hasn’t ever really been forgiven by the baseball world at large for his steroid-related transgressions, which is a shame, because at his peak he was a lot of fun to watch swing an overly large bat, steroids or not.

8 — Center Fielders

NAME	YEAR	AGE	PA	R	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	TAv	BWARP
Mike Trout	2015	23	682	104	41	92	158	.299	.402	.590	.290	.353	10.0
Mike Trout	2013	21	716	109	27	110	136	.323	.432	.557	.234	.367	10.0
Matt Kemp	2011	26	689	115	39	74	159	.324	.399	.586	.262	.357	9.7

You were waiting for this one, weren’t you? You were sort of hoping that Trout would take all three places, weren’t you? Well, this is pretty close. Trout’s 2014 actually slots in fourth, just a tiny bit behind Kemp’s brilliant 2011, when he went on an April tear and heard not a whisper from the balky hip that has derailed his career ever since. And as good as he was that year, as much press as he got that year, Mike Trout has been better in two of the past three years, and essentially just as good in all three. If you have MLB.tv, set up an alert for Mike Trout. Then double-check to make sure you set it correctly. He is the best player of his generation, and he’s playing at the top of his game right now. Watch him, so you can tell your grandkids that you did.

9 — Right Fielders

NAME	YEAR	AGE	PA	R	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	TAv	BWARP
Bryce Harper	2015	22	654	118	42	124	131	.330	.460	.649	.319	.386	11.2
Jose Bautista	2011	30	655	105	43	132	111	.302	.447	.608	.306	.357	10.0
Giancarlo Stanton	2014	24	638	89	37	94	170	.288	.395	.555	.267	.342	8.3

Oh. You should watch Bryce Harper too. In slow motion, if at all possible. With some '80s synth beats playing in the background, if you can swing it. Harper’s 2015 season is the best season on this list by quite a ways, and he is—it’s hard to write this—just 23 years old this year. Twenty-three! Bryce Harper was 9 years old* on 9/11, and in fourth grade. Now, he’s hitting baseballs out of sight in our nation’s capital, and looking rougueish doing it. He is unreasonably good at what he does. Watch him. Appreciate him. There are very, very few like him.

Jose Bautista, for his part, has been in the news this offseason mostly for things unrelated to his baseball talent (which is a shame, and not at all his fault), but don’t sleep on his hitting game: he’s really good there, too, and Giancarlo Stanton is a freak of nature built to hit home runs on a line. Neither is quite as transcendent as Trout and Harper, but then 99.999999999 percent of the world’s population aren’t either.

n/a — Designated Hitters

NAME	YEAR	AGE	PA	R	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	TAv	BWARP
David Ortiz	2013	37	600	84	30	76	88	.309	.395	.564	.255	.332	4.9
Victor Martinez	2014	35	641	87	32	70	42	.335	.409	.565	.230	.335	4.7
Edwin Encarnacion	2015	32	624	94	39	77	98	.277	.372	.557	.280	.324	4.7

We started with a bang, and we’ll end with a whimper. WARP doesn’t love designated hitters in general, as it debits them heavily for their lack of a defensive position. Still, there’s three very nice offensive seasons on this list, and a few guys who are reaching the tail ends of careers they should rightfully be proud of.

***

What have we learned? Not a lot we didn’t know already, honestly. But the point was never to learn something we didn’t know. The point was to appreciate the greatness we’ve just recently seen before it fades away. Most of us are blessed with innumerable privileges we fail to recognize, but should, on a daily basis: a roof over our heads, food to eat, air to breathe. Baseball privileges aren’t quite on that order, but that’s no reason to neglect them, either. We have a whole 2016 ahead of us, and all of the players on this list are still active. Let us appreciate together the greatness we have witnessed.

*Editor's note: So was Rian, so we're really not sure whether to let him get away with that sentence.