Transaction Analysis: Fredi, Blame, Fired

I’ll issue an up-front disclaimer that Kemp was one of my favorite players to come through the Cal League in 2014, and that was a season in which the Cal League saw approximately 8,546,321 awesome future big leaguers take the field. A former SEC Player of the Year and fifth-round pick of the Astros, Kemp has successfully battled uphill his entire career to reach the majors in spite of his diminutive size and persistent questions about how the ol’ hit tool would hold up as he climbed the ladder.

He's answered the bell at Triple-A so far this year to the tune of a .298/.410/.405 line that’s just about par for the course of his 1,600-some-odd professional plate appearances. The swing is as compact as his frame, with closed hips and little leverage of which to speak. His strong wrists and quick hands help him keep up with velocity and make adjustments mid-swing, but he struggles to drive the ball much at all. It’s bottom-of-the-scale power, but his plus speed helps it play up into 30 game-utility range on account of his instincts and knack for stretching hits into extra bases.

Kemp’s approach is the primary driver of his success at the plate. He is a smart hitter with a demonstrable plan and ability to sequence along with pitchers. He sees spin well from right-handers and shows an advanced command of the zone. Paired with the short stroke and a knack for spoiling pitches when beaten, the package is one with limited swing-and-miss to go along with outsized walk rates to drive a solid on-base percentage. He showed some vulnerability to inner-third velocity in my looks along with some trouble tracking same-handed spin, and I noted at the time a likely platoon issue that has indeed manifested in the high minors. Still, the whole package adds up to a high-contact, high-on-base profile with above-average potential for the hit tool.

I got run times ranging from 4.06 to 4.13 for him out of the box, though the plus raw foot speed doesn’t always play to full utility on the bases on account of a start-up that lacks explosiveness. The foot speed helped him generate average range at second base, where he showed the tools of an average overall defender. The fundamentals and quick transfer were there, and they had to be in order to cover for a fringe-average arm. His baseline athleticism, speed, and intelligence offered optimism that his subsequent return to outfield play (where he logged ample time in college) could yield playable versatility, though the arm strength limits him to left field with can-fake-it utility in center.

Kemp probably won’t be the savior the Astros could desperately use right now, but he’s a solid player who plays above his tools and offers a sound approach that can translate against big-league pitching. The versatility and on-base ability should be welcome additions to the 25-man roster. —Wilson Karaman

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Signed OF-B Robbie Grossman to a minor-league contract. [5/17]

Last month the Twins signed veteran outfielder David Murphy to a minor-league deal with the intention of quickly calling him up to replace one of their struggling young outfielders. Instead he hit .194 in 10 games at Triple-A and, when the Twins informed Murphy they still wanted to call him up anyway, the 34-year-old retired. Like, he literally decided to stop playing baseball instead of going back to the majors with the Twins.

Minnesota has now signed Robbie Grossman to a minor-league deal and it's easy to see similar writing on the wall for Eddie Rosario or Danny Santana (last time Byron Buxton was also in that mix, but he's already been demoted to Triple-A). Grossman is nearly a decade younger than Murphy and has little success in the majors, hitting .240/.337/.341 in 190 games for the Astros. However, the 26-year-old former Pirates sixth-round pick still has the potential for some upside if his hit tool can ever be even mediocre enough to let his on-base skills take over.

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Fired manager Fredi Gonzalez; named Brian Snitker interim manager. [5/17]

This move has been years in the making. Gonzalez gave away the 2013 NLDS, and that wasn’t even the first (or worst) offense of his tenure. He wasn’t a good in-game manager, especially when it came to the bullpen (and late-game situations in general). By most measures–how much he got out of some very good players, for instance, both developed from within and signed or acquired as veterans–he also wasn’t good at the intangible things that make a manager an asset to an MLB team. He presided over the disastrous 2011 and 2014 collapses that saw very good teams miss the playoffs; the latter one prompted the franchise-wide temper tantrum that shook up the front office and saw a great young core off-loaded for parts.

It’s not a surprise Gonzalez was fired; it’s a surprise he was just fired now. By sticking with him throughout 2015 and into this spring, the Braves–especially John Schuerholz, Gonzalez’s long-time supporter and protector–signaled a misguided faith that Gonzalez was the man to pilot them through their rebuild and back into contention. I can’t imagine what has changed the team’s mind in the last six weeks, but we’re just quibbling over timing, now. Good on Atlanta for moving on from a skipper they probably never should have hired.

In Gonzalez’s stead, Snitker gets his big break. It won’t be forever; he’s just an interim helmsman. Still, it must be a thrill for the 60-year-old Braves lifer who's coming up on 40 years of continuous service with the organization. He’s been the team’s third base coach and he’s managed 19 years in their minor-league system, albeit with a losing aggregate record. Good managers don’t get their first whiff of the job at 60. Snitker isn’t the future, and the Braves didn’t take any step, not even a small one, toward redeeming their cynical and less-than-optimal rebuilding plan Tuesday. They just made a change, and the silver lining of what becomes a darker cloud all the time is that a long-time employee gets some hard-earned time in the spotlight. —Matthew Trueblood

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Signed C-R Francisco Cervelli to a three-year, $31 million contract extension. [5/17]

This one fell out of the sky, and for the Pirates it’s manna from heaven. National TV money, revenue sharing, and the effectiveness of the luxury tax rules have done a good job of smoothing out inequality of opportunity for teams based on market size over the last 20 years, but clubs like Pittsburgh still need to occasionally get a player to agree to a wildly under-market deal in order to string together contending seasons. That’s precisely what they’ve done here.

Cervelli’s career has been marred by injuries, and there was a Biogenesis suspension in 2014 that was sure to come up when he hit the free-agent market this winter. Still, he’s one of the games best framers, and one of its best overall defensive catchers. He also has a batting line of .293/.373/.394 since the start of 2014, in 812 plate appearances. He’s a well-rounded, star-level talent, worth 5.7 WARP last season and on his way to something close to that this year.

It’s profoundly strange that Cervelli would accept this deal at this stage of the campaign. He wouldn’t have gotten Russell Martin money this winter, but four years and somewhere north of $55 million were reasonable goals. If the inevitable rule changes that will modify the qualifying offer system this winter favored his situation, he might even have done a bit better. That he passed up that chance either tells us he’s very risk-averse, or demonstrates an admirable (if misguided) loyalty to his employers. The Pirates get points for whatever culture they’ve developed over the last few years, in the wake of this news. It paid off in a big way. —Matthew Trueblood