“Guerra, which is Spanish for war.”
Before I get to talking about the actual players or any of that stuff that you’re actually here for, I want to thank someone. Tommy Lasorda, thank you. I agree with Rob Neyer that the MLB draft just doesn’t have the sort of short-term impact on the game that would justify making a big NBA-style production number out of the first few rounds. As it turns out, though, the teams seem to go out of their way to make the event as dull as possible, with a host of mid-level functionaries, some with decent TV and/or radio (OK, Internet audio, but you know what I mean) presence, and some decidedly without, all opening their statements with a nondescript five-digit accounting number. Then there’s Tommy, whose announcements, even for a seventh-rounder who’s going to be out of the system in four years, have the character and enthusiasm of a state delegate to a national political convention. He, along with the occasional oops moment with a mike left open, provided all the entertainment of the day.
Anyway, on to the players. Here are the season numbers with a few comments for all of the senior college players drafted in the first two rounds. The first thing you’ll notice about these lists compared to last year’s is that they’re longer; the trend toward drafting college guys has definitely snowballed. First, the hitters:
Player College MLB Team SoS PF AVG/OBP/SLG HR Stephen Drew Florida State Diamondbacks 109 83 .353/.472/.716 17 Josh Fields Oklahoma State White Sox 110 105 .362/.465/.580 10 Landon Powell South Carolina A's 109 80 .339/.425/.641 19 Richard Robnett Fresno State A's 111 117 .384/.469/.699 13 Danny Putnam Stanford A's 114 99 .378/.454/.643 16 B. J. Szymanski Princeton Reds 94 92 .362/.433/.610 6 Seth Smith Mississippi Rockies 111 80 .284/.364/.422 7 Brian Bixler E. Michigan Pirates 99 106 .453/.519/.650 8 Erick San Pedro Miami, Florida Expos 108 92 .333/.452/.633 12 Jon Zeringue Louisiana State Diamondbacks 110 94 .389/.446/.636 12 Curtis Thigpen Texas Blue Jays 113 97 .363/.457/.542 6 Donald Lucy Stanford White Sox 114 99 .313/.381/.534 12 Mike Ferris Miami, Ohio Cardinals 96 103 .361/.513/.755 21 Jason Jaramillo Oklahoma State Phillies 110 105 .350/.435/.500 8 Hunter Pence Texas-Arlington Astros 107 93 .395/.441/.616 8 Dustin Pedroia Arizona State Red Sox 114 109 .393/.502/.611 9 Kurt Suzuki Cal St Fllrton A's 114 107 .435/.525/.731 15 Eddy Martinez-Esteve FSU Giants 109 83 .391/.462/.720 19
I discussed Drew, Fields, Powell, Putnam, Zeringue, Suzuki, and Martinez-Esteve last week; here are the highlights of the rest:
- Robnett is a nice grab. His defensive reputation (which is about all we have at this point on college players) is excellent, and his numbers stand out on a fairly mediocre team. He’s a sophomore, which gives him a bit more leverage, but one would assume the A’s have dotted those particular i’s ahead of time.
- Szymanski was overrated when he was being talked up as a top-10 pick, but he’s not too much of a stretch in the second round. He’s a converted football player whose numbers don’t stand up too well when you adjust for the level of competition. His temper still reflects a football mentality–the word “raw” comes up way too often in discussions of him. That said, he has a high upside, so he was worth a flyer, although the third or fourth round might have fit him better.
- Pedroia is an excellent catch this far down. He’s an excellent all-around player, hitting for power and playing a flashy but consistent shortstop. The main concern about him is durability, as he’s a bit on the small side.
- Thigpen and San Pedro are proof of the Timo Perez Principle: the same performance is worth a lot more to you personally if you do it on a team that’s winning a lot.
Now the pitchers:
Player College MLB Team SoS PF ERA IP HR K BB Justin Verlander Old Dominion Tigers 99 97 3.49 105.2 8 151 43 Philip Humber Rice Mets 109 107 2.27 115.0 7 154 37 Jeff Niemann Rice D-Rays 109 107 3.02 80.1 4 94 30 Jeremy Sowers Vanderbilt Indians 109 89 2.64 119.1 6 118 23 Wade Townsend Rice Orioles 109 107 1.80 120.1 6 148 45 Thomas Diamond New Orleans Rangers 103 90 2.38 113.2 8 138 45 Jered Weaver Long Beach St Angels 114 86 1.65 136.1 7 201 19 Bill Bray William&Mary Expos 96 97 2.44 59.0 4 84 15 David Purcey Oklahoma Blue Jays 111 108 3.11 118.2 5 130 54 Chris Lambert Boston Collge Cardinals 100 87 3.02 92.1 4 107 51 Glen Perkins Minnesota Twins 103 103 2.83 111.1 6 113 21 Taylor Tankersley Alabama Marlins 108 92 2.00 67.2 3 70 26 Matt Campbell S. Carolina Royals 109 80 3.02 107.1 5 129 26 J. P. Howell Texas Royals 113 97 2.24 116.2 5 140 44 Zach Jackson Texas A&M Blue Jays 111 103 3.54 112.0 5 119 26 Justin Orenduff VCU Dodgers 97 95 2.43 100.0 4 129 34 Tyler Lumsden Clemson White Sox 109 82 3.98 81.1 3 88 37 Matt Fox Central Fla Twins 100 93 1.85 111.2 5 125 32 Huston Street Texas A's 113 97 1.49 48.1 3 48 12 Brett Smith UC Irvine Yankees 113 87 2.54 113.1 8 113 29 Eric Beattie Tampa Tigers ? ? 3.38 104.0 ? 127 22 Matt Durkin San Jose St Mets 110 114 4.49 110.1 4 103 49 Justin Hoyman Florida Indians 110 95 2.71 132.2 8 86 37 Michael Rogers N.C. State A's 107 84 3.08 117.0 8 110 21 Wes Whisler UCLA White Sox 114 106 5.24 92.2 10 60 35 Billy Buckner S. Carolina Royals 109 80 3.16 77.0 8 95 22 Grant Johnson Notre Dame Cubs 100 99 1.87 57.2 2 51 26 Jason Vargas Long Beach St Marlins 114 86 4.23 104.1 8 86 29
Once you get past the blue-chippers I talked about last week, a lot of these guys are pretty darn interchangeable big right-handers. I doubt anyone but their mothers could tell Smith, Durkin, and Hoyman apart from the stands.
- Bray wasn’t a terrible choice, but strength of schedule is a more reliable indicator for relievers than for starters, and his numbers aren’t quite as good as you’d like for the level of competition he’s faced.
- Everybody seems to have gotten the memo about drafting college pitchers. I think the next one should be about not overpaying for potential rather than performance. The Cardinals will pay several hundred thousand dollars for a guy who walked more than four batters per nine innings against a mediocre schedule this year in Lambert.
- Tankersley is a converted closer who will probably have to head back to the bullpen to make it to the big leagues. He’s one pitch short of a good starting arsenal.
- Perkins raises a couple of interesting questions: Is there a box office boost to having locally-raised talent, if the talent level is otherwise equal? If so, are teams in northern areas, where amateur talent is thinner, at a disadvantage? The Twins took a lot of grief over the Mauer-over-Prior selection, but at least Mauer was a legitimate prospect and could still conceivably be more valuable than Prior if their DL numbers work out a certain way from this point forward. Perkins doesn’t have that going for him; he’s a marginal third-rounder, unless you completely ignore competition level and park factors.
- Vargas is the best two-way player taken to this point in the draft–his offensive numbers are actually more impressive for this season as a DH than his pitching numbers. Nonetheless, the Marlins listed him as a pitcher.
Boyd Nation is the sole author and Webmaster of Boyd’s World, a Web site devoted to college baseball rankings, analysis, and opinions. In real life, he’s an information security analyst with an energy company. He can be reached at boyd.nation@mindspring.com.
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