Prospectus Triple Play: Chicago White Sox, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies

Chicago White Sox

• Like the Rock: The White Sox’s new baserunning coach, Tim Raines, has already
  declared his
  intentions to make a significant contribution to the south side’s
  effort this
  season:

  “We won’t beat a team with three-run homers, especially with Big
  Frank not in
  the lineup. We have to be that type of team that pitches well, plays
  good defense
  and manufactures runs.” (MLB.com)

  Last year, the White Sox stole 78 bases, good for ninth in the
  American League.
  Unfortunately, they were caught 51 times, a total surpassed only by the
  Cleveland
  Indians. Their 60% success rate was second worst in the league,
  trailing only the
  Royals, who somehow managed to come in at 58% despite half a season
  from the most
  efficient basestealer in the history of the game. Needless to say,
  there’s room
  for improvement.

  Just how bad was that performance last year? Looking at the expected
  runs matrix for 2004, with a runner on first and one out, teams
  scored an
  average of .5496 runs in the inning; with a runner on second, the
  number jumps to
  .7104; and with no one on base and two outs, it drops to .1135. We can
  quickly
  estimate the breakeven point for stolen bases by dividing the benefit
  of staying
  put by the benefit of running: (.5496 – .1135) / (.7104 – .1135) =
  73.1%.
  Other typical situations:

  Outs  Stolen Base  Breakeven
  0       Second       73.2%
  1       Second       73.1%
  2       Second       73.2%
  0       Third        74.8%
  1       Third        69.5%
  2       Third        92.7%
  

  Depending on the situation involved when the White Sox were stealing
  last year,
  they cost themselves somewhere on the order of 14 runs with their
  errant theft
  attempts. Even just bringing that back to zero would save
  the Sox around
  1.4 wins.

  The real question is: do they have the tools to do it? Here are the
  stolen base
  numbers from 2004 for the Sox’s top base stealers:

  Player          SB  CS  Perc
  Scott Podsednik 70  13  84.3%
  Aaron Rowand    17   5  77.3%
  Willie Harris   19   7  73.1%
  Juan Uribe       9  11  45.0%
  

  Steals can be overrated–particularly when they come with more CS
  than SB as in
  Juan Uribe‘s case–but Scott
  Podsednik‘s 70
  steals last year were the real deal. With Podsednik on board and
  Aaron
  Rowand back, the White Sox look to be much better on the bases
  than they
  were last year without any real improvement elsewhere. Willie
  Harris doesn’t look to be seeing as much time on the basepaths
  as last
  year with a reduced role overall, but his stolen base rate is right
  around the
  breakeven point, so he could steal 100 or 0 and add virtually nothing.

  The real key is getting Uribe to stop running; his basestealing
  cost the Sox
  over five runs alone. Removing Uribe and keeping last year’s numbers,
  the Sox now
  look to be on pace to steal 111 with 29 failures, a 79.3% success rate.
  Those
  numbers would net the Sox about 7.5 runs over the course of the season,
  a
  turnaround of 22.5 runs or just over two wins. If Raines can properly
  coach the
  Sox in their basestealing adventures, there’s quite a bit of potential
  for some
  serious contributions to the offense.

Oakland Athletics

• Playing in the Pen: Though the A’s may not have gotten quite as much as they could have
  for pitchers
  of the caliber of Mark Mulder and Tim
  Hudson in
  their trades this winter, they did acquire a pair of highly capable
  arms for the
  bullpen in Kiko Calero and Juan Cruz.
  While
  Dan Haren and Dan Meyer may take a
  little time to
  develop into front-line starting pitchers, the acquired relievers
  should
  immediately shore up a beleaguered pen.

  The situation just got a little more interesting. With Chad
  Bradford–a pitcher who strands more people than CBS–out
  until at least
  late June with back surgery, the A’s suddenly have one fewer competitor
  for their
  revamped bullpen. Let’s see how the contenders shake out:

  • Octavio Dotel: Despite some rumblings about Dotel
    possibly
    moving to the Cubs, he’s still the closer and that’s unlikely to change
    until Dotel
    can amass enough saves to blow his perceived value way out of line. He
    still
    strikes out more than 11 men per nine innings and there’s little reason
    to expect
    him to be anything less than stellar.

  • Ricardo Rincon: Rincon has slowly evolved from a
    lefty setup
    man to LOOGY. In 2003, Rincon notched 14 appearances in which he faced
    one or two
    batters and 50 in which he faced three or more. In 2004, 30 of his
    appearances saw
    two or fewer and 37 were three or more. Used correctly, he’s still an
    effective
    situational man, a fact that secures his job.

  • Justin Duchscherer: The requisite long man,
    Duchscherer logged
    nearly 100 innings of 3.27 ERA pitching last year in 53 appearances.
    Though Cruz
    has been a starter in the past, he hasn’t put up the inning totals that
    Duchscherer
    has since 2002, so Duchscherer will be back in the pen again.

  • Juan Cruz: Acquired in the Hudson deal, Cruz is the kind of
    fireballer
    the A’s have lacked in recent seasons. He’s not quite as adept with
    the whiff as
    Dotel, but he’s still averaged just over a strikeout an inning over the
    last two
    years. If you’re into nitpicking, Cruz does walk just a few too many
    batters, but
    that won’t cost him a job.

  • Kiko Calero: After seven years in the minors, it appeared
    that the best
    Calero had to offer were recommendations on places to eat in
    Wichita.
    Converted to a reliever by the Cardinals, Calero enjoyed two solid
    seasons with an
    increased strikeout rate and an improved walk rate, particularly in
    2004.

  • Huston Street: The most likely replacement for
    Bradford,
    Street has been well chronicled, both here
    and
    elsewhere. Counting college and the Arizona Fall League, Street was
    impressive in
    five levels in 2004, allowing 16 earned runs in just over 100 innings.
    One of the
    better examples of a recent trend of college relievers drafted very
    high, Street
    should take advantage of the opportunity and stick with the A’s most of
    the season.

  • Chris Mabeus: A bit of an organizational
    soldier,
    Mabeus was selected by the Rangers in the 2003 Rule 5 draft, but
    returned to the
    A’s after he didn’t make the team. He’s posted impressive K/BB ratios
    of 70/15 and
    88/14 in 62.0 and 73.2 innings the last two seasons. As pointed out in
    Baseball
    Prospectus 2005, the main thing Mabeus and his agent should point to is
    the fact
    that his performances have come against the high-level competition of
    the Texas and
    Pacific Coast leagues while Street and Jairo Garcia have been plying
    their trade
    against significantly weaker competition.

  • Tyler Johnson: The A’s Rule 5 selection from the
    Cardinals,
    Johnson has assumed the role of guitar-playing, surfing left-hander, a
    role already
    ably filled by Barry Zito. He’s also cut from the same slow fastball,
    comic-book
    curve mold. Johnson walks a few too many guys, but–quelle surprise!—
    he strikes
    out a lot, too.

  • Jimmy Serrano: Like Mabeus, Serrano has spent some
    time in the
    minors–Oakland is his fourth organization–but Serrano switched from
    relieving
    to starting, registering a few starts in the debacle of Kansas City’s
    rotation last
    year. He’s on the shorter side, but he strikes people out, like
    pretty much
    everyone else the A’s have stockpiled. It will be tough for him to
    impress his way
    into the pen.

  • Jairo Garcia: The “stuff” answer to Street’s
    polished college
    resume, Garcia struggled as he reached the upper levels of the Oakland
    system last
    year. His fastball and slider are a combination to behold, but the A’s
    may see
    last year’s difficulties as reason enough to keep him in Sacramento
    until he learns
    to control them a little better.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Phinding Some Depth: The Phillies got their first bad news of the spring last week when
  third baseman
  David Bell went down with a back injury. Originally
  estimated to
  keep Bell out throughout spring training and for the first two weeks of
  the regular
  season, tests have shown no herniated disk and no stress fracture.
  Bell proclaims
  he’ll be back by Opening Day, but considering his limited time to get
  back into
  playing shape, it’s anyone’s guess if he’ll actually be manning the hot
  corner
  against the Nationals on April 4th. In the meantime, the Phillies look
  to have one
  more spot on the roster.

  The name that’s come up as the possible new addition so far is
  Shane
  Victorino, a Rule 5 pick from the Dodgers this past winter.
  This being his
  second Rule 5 selection–he was a Rule 5 pick by the Padres in 2002
  before being
  quickly returned to Los Angeles–Victorino should be used as a
  26th man. In his third go’round in Double-A Jacksonville last year,
  Victorino
  appeared to have finally figured things out, hitting .238/.375/.584
  before being
  called up to Triple-A Las Vegas. After a miserable .235/.278/.335
  stint, Victorino
  likely joined the Vegas tourist bureau and coined their current
  marketing phrase.
  Victorino is young, fast and a switch-hitter, a nifty combination for a
  player
  who’s shown virtually no power and just enough plate discipline to not
  get fired.

  Victorino’s presence raises questions about the Phillies’ plans for
  erstwhile
  centerfielder Marlon Byrd. The Phils have seemed
  content to use a
  Kenny Lofton/Jason Michaels platoon
  in center,
  leaving Byrd the odd man out in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Byrd, however,
  is trying to
  convince new manager Charlie Manuel and GM Ed Wade that he’s
  rediscovered his power
  stroke. With Bell’s spot possibly open, the Phillies may be
  considering throwing
  Byrd into the mix in center field.

  Byrd had a terrible 2004–there’s just no other way to put it–but
  he also has
  a long record of strong performances in the minors as well as his
  impressive rookie
  season in 2003. Most of his collapse in 2004 can be blamed on a
  surprising lack of
  singles. Byrd’s walk rate actually improved last year and his isolated
  power
  dropped just slightly. Looking at only the most recent season is the
  kind of
  myopia that befalls a many major-league teams and
  the Phillies
  would be well advised to take more into account when selecting their
  fifth
  outfielder.

  The other main consequence of Bell’s possible injury is that
  Placido
  Polanco will take over the regular third-base job in the
  meantime. Though
  the Phillies were hoping to gracefully allow Polanco to exit after last
  season, he
  found no offers in a surprisingly robust market for shortstops.
  Instead, he
  accepted arbitration, leaving the Phillies with one of the more
  expensive backup
  infielders in the game. Having him play regularly at third for a
  couple weeks
  could give the Phillies the kind of exposure they need to trade him at
  some point
  during the season. Polanco’s a solid player and the more plate
  appearances that happen
  to come his way, the higher his counting stats like runs, RBI and
  home runs will
  get. And the higher those go, the easier it will be for the Phillies
  to turn his
  unexpected cost into positive gain.