Playoff Prospectus: Six, For Once

Going into last night, the Milwaukee Brewers had never won the sixth game of a postseason series.

The franchise came into being in 1969, part of MLB’s second major expansion of the 1960s. The Montreal Expos and San Diego Padres joined the National League. The American League added the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Pilots. The Pilots, immortalized by Jim Bouton’s Ball Four, declared bankruptcy shortly before the 1970 season started, and Milwaukee businessman Bud Selig bought the team and moved it Milwaukee.

It took the expansion team 13 years to make the postseason. The 1981 Brewers had finished with the best overall record in the American League East in the strike-shortened split season, so hopes were high for 1982. But the team was 23-24 through June 1, fifth place in the seven-team AL East. That cost manager Buck Rogers his job. Under his replacement, Harvey Kuenn, the team caught fire. They went 72-43 the rest of the season, beating the Orioles by one game in the East. They came back from a 2-0 deficit in the ALCS to the California Angels, and then won three straight to advance to the World Series. (The LCS was best-of-five until 1985.)

The 1982 Brewers, nicknamed “Harvey’s Wallbangers,” were a force on offense, leading the AL in runs (by 77), homers (by 30), slugging percentage (by 22 points), isolated power (by 17 points), and True Average (by nine points). Four Brewers—shortstop Robin Yount, first baseman Cecil Cooper, center fielder Gorman Thomas, and third baseman Paul Molitor—finished in the top 16 in TAv in the AL. The team’s rotation was nothing special, finishing seventh in the league in ERA and 11th in DRA. But its bullpen, led by closer Rollie Fingers, had the third-lowest ERA and led the league in saves. Yount was a deserving MVP. (Brewers starting pitcher Pete Vuckovich was an underserving Cy Young award winner.)

They were blown out in the sixth game of the 1982 World Series, losing 13-1 to the Cardinals, evening the series at three games each.

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The next Brewers team to play a sixth game in October was the 2011 club. Now in the National League Central, they won their division by six games.

Like the 1982 club, the 2011 Brewers were good on offense: fifth of 16 teams in runs, first in homers, second in slugging and OPS, first in ISO, sixth in TAv.

Like the 1982 club, the 2011 Brewers’ starting pitchers were only okay, sixth in ERA (and closer to ninth than to fifth). Like the 1982 club, the bullpen, led by closer John Axford, was strong, fifth in ERA and saves, and second in DRA.

Like the 1982 club, the 2011 Brewers had a deserving (given what we knew at the time) MVP, Ryan Braun.

Like the 1982 club, the 2011 Brewers took all five games to oust their first postseason opponent, beating the Diamondbacks in the Division Series.

Like the 1982 club, the 2011 Brewers’ opponent in the best-of-seven series was the Cardinals, who were now not only in their league but also in their division. The Cardinals were the 2011 NL Wild Card and beat the Phillies to advance to the LCS.

Like the 1982 club, the 2011 Brewers were crushed in the sixth game of the NLCS, losing a 12-6 decision that was never in doubt. St. Louis had a 9-4 lead in the third inning. The loss eliminated Milwaukee.

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Now it’s seven years later, the 50th season for the franchise. Like the 1982 Brewers, the 2018 club had the best record in the National League. Like the 1982 and 2011 clubs, they were a force on offense: seventh of 15 teams in runs, second in home runs, third in slugging, fourth in OPS, third in ISO, second in TAv. As in 1982 and 2011, the starting pitching was mediocre (seventh in ERA, 12th in innings, 13th in DRA), but the bullpen was sterling (first in DRA, second in ERA, second in saves), led by—well the Brewers had a bunch of good relievers. Like the 1982 and 2011 clubs, these Brewers have a deserving MVP.

So the parallels going into last night’s sixth game were not encouraging. The game started with David Freese, the MVP of the 2011 Cardinals’ NLCS victory over Milwaukee, for crying out loud, sending Wade Miley’s fifth pitch into the right-center field seats. Miley, who’d been so dominant six days earlier, wasn’t as sharp. He missed with the first pitch to the first eight Dodgers he faced, and when he finally got an 0-1 count, to Hyun-Jin Ryu, the pitcher wound up with a single. Miley was able to limit the Dodgers to just two runs over 4 2/3 innings, though, despite surrendering five hits and two walks.

But the Brewers didn’t get blown out, as they had in their other sixth games in October. The difference this time was that in this sixth game, the Brewers bats showed up. Braun, the MVP in 2011 (yes, I know), entering the game with a .558 postseason OPS (.782 during the season), had two hits, walked once, and scored and drove in a run. Lorenzo Cain, with a .655 postseason OPS (.813 during the season), had two singles and scored two runs. Jesus Aguilar, with a .708 postseason OPS (.890 during the season), had a single, a walk, and two doubles while scoring two runs and driving in three.

The Brewers also forced seven Dodgers relievers into the game, creating at best a fatigue issue and at worst an availability issue for tonight’s final contest. On their side, their top relief weapon, Josh Hader, didn’t pitch, and Jeremy Jeffress looked back on track, retiring three straight batters on 13 pitches, 10 of them strikes, in an unstressful inning.

In beating the Dodgers 7-2, the Brewers matched their run output from their three games in Los Angeles combined. It’s the most runs they’ve scored in a game since September. The seven runs also matched their run output from their losses in the sixth game of the 1982 World Series and the 2011 NLCS. Milwaukee is no longer jinxed by the sixth game of postseason series.

Which is a good thing. Because in the franchise’s 50-year history, going into tonight’s game, the Brewers have never won the seventh game of a postseason series, either.