Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game 7 Preview and PECOTA Odds

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Los Angeles Dodgers (Walker Buehler) at Milwaukee Brewers (Jhoulys Chacin), 8:09 PM ET

PECOTA odds of winning: 56% Dodgers, 44% Brewers

Here we go.

The first series to go the distance this postseason, with a trip to the World Series on the line and the Red Sox waiting for the winner at Fenway Park on Tuesday night. It’s a pitching rematch of Game 3, which the Brewers won 4-0 at Dodger Stadium.

Game 6 was a best-case scenario for the Brewers, as they won the game to even the series and did so without using Josh Hader. He warmed up but never came into the 7-2 victory, potentially allowing the shutdown southpaw to pitch three or more innings tonight. Combined with Jhoulys Chacin being the closest thing the Brewers have to a front-of-the-rotation starter, and manager Craig Counsell‘s pitching plan could be a fairly simple one: Chacin for two trips through the order, followed by Hader for however long it takes. And if Chacin needs an earlier exit, Corey Knebel, Joakim Soria, and Jeremy Jeffress should each be available for at least one inning.

Los Angeles’ plan is less clear, although the Dodgers also have a shutdown southpaw looming in the bullpen. Walker Buehler allowed four runs over seven innings in Game 3, including a two-run homer to Orlando Arcia on his 98th pitch. He’ll likely be on much a shorter leash, in part because Clayton Kershaw is available and “prepared for whatever” after skipping his usual between-starts bullpen session in preparation for a relief outing. Just like the Brewers’ plan with Chacin/Hader, it may be Buehler for two trips through the order, followed by Kershaw for however long it takes. Kenley Jansen is also fresh after not appearing in Game 6.

Projected Starting Lineups

Dave Roberts has a decision to make at catcher, where regular season backup Austin Barnes has started each of the past three games as Yasmani Grandal played himself to the bench for a second straight postseason. However, it was Grandal who paired with Buehler in Game 3 after catching 18 of his 24 appearances during the regular season. Grandal also came off the bench to catch the final two innings last night after pinch-hitting in the seventh inning, although that didn’t exactly go smoothly.

Injuries/Availability

Kershaw’s status is perhaps the biggest question mark, but his usage in last year’s World Series shows what Roberts probably has in mind. Last year, Kershaw threw four innings and 43 pitches out of the bullpen in Game 7 three days after throwing 94 pitches as the Game 5 starter. This time around? Kershaw threw 98 pitches as the Game 5 starter three days ago. Three or four innings tonight seem doable, and perhaps even likely.

Hader, meanwhile, will be working on even more rest than Kershaw, having last pitched in Game 4 for one inning and 20 pitches. He’s thrown more than 20 pitches in an outing just once this postseason, going three innings on 46 pitches in Game 1, whiffing four of the 11 batters he faced. That’s more pitches than Hader threw in any regular-season appearance, but he did toss two or more innings 23 times. Given the extra rest and the gravity of Game 7, he’s no doubt available for at least nine outs and possibly more.

Game 7s are always all-hands-on-deck situations, and in this case both managers should have very close to their preferred pitching options available. No reliever on either side threw more than 28 pitches last night, and only Kenta Maeda (28) and Alex Wood (23) for the Dodgers and Corey Knebel (25) and Corbin Burnes (23) for the Brewers threw as many as 20 pitches. Everyone but Game 6 starters Wade Miley and Hyun-Jin Ryu figure to be available to some extent, and both Counsell and Roberts should be able to map out their plan rather than being reactive (assuming neither starter throws a total clunker, of course).

Outlook

PECOTA sees the Dodgers as slight favorites, even on the road, although given how the pitching usage figures to go tonight even the best projection system can only do so much. Las Vegas agrees with PECOTA, pegging the Dodgers as -115 favorites, or the equivalent of 54 percent.