Welcome to Part 1 of Baseball Prospectus’ annual list of the top 50 free agents.
This is admittedly a very subjective undertaking, but my goal is a simple one: Rank free agents by their expected future value. This is not an attempt to predict contract sizes, although certainly there will be a strong correlation.
Below you’ll find free agents 1-10, with 11-30 here and 31-50 here.
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1. Manny Machado
Position(s): SS/3B
Age (as of 6/30/19): 26
Former team: Dodgers
Machado is the best all-around position player to hit the open market since at least Robinson Cano in 2013, and does so at age 26 following a season in which he played 162 games and posted career-highs in batting average (.297), on-base percentage (.367), slugging percentage (.538), home runs (37), and walks (70). His defensive numbers declined with a full-time shift to shortstop, although he did improve there in Los Angeles with the help of better positioning. Machado is an elite defensive third baseman or a mediocre defensive shortstop with a true middle-of-the-order bat, which is a combination that simply does not make it to free agency (or exist, period) very often.
Machado has said he wants to play shortstop, but it’s hard to imagine him being an asset there into his 30s given that he’s already among the slowest players at the position. A couple seasons at shortstop followed by a permanent shift back to third base could be a workable compromise, and perhaps $300 million is all the compromise Machado needs even now. That number may seem crazy after a rough (and at times villainous) postseason with the Dodgers, but 8-10 years at $30 million-plus per season for a 26-year-old superstar with value on both sides of the ball is plausible. He’s averaged 4.7 WARP per 150 career games, including 5.8 WARP in 2018 and at least 5.7 WARP in three of the past four seasons.
2. Bryce Harper
Position(s): OF
Age (as of 6/30/19): 26
Former team: Nationals
This is a 1a and 1b situation, but that seems like a cop-out. Harper has long been viewed as the headliner of this free agent class and preferring him to Machado is certainly reasonable. Harper produced more Runs Created through age 25 than every hitter in the past 50 years except Mike Trout, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., and Albert Pujols. However, he’s coming off a good but unspectacular season offensively, and his defensive value pales in comparison to Machado. To believe Harper is a superior all-around player to Machado requires seeing him as vastly superior offensively, and that’s only been the case in two of the past five seasons. Of course, those two seasons were both MVP-caliber. Maybe it’s not a cop-out.
Harper played 500 innings as a center fielder in 2018, but he’s beyond stretched there and five years from now he’s more likely to be at first base or designated hitter. That’s of only minor concern to any team entering the bidding, because his bat will determine whether the massive investment was worth it. Elite power and patience are constants—among all left-handed hitters from 2015-2018, only Joey Votto had a higher walk rate and only Joey Gallo had a higher isolated power—but Harper’s batting average fluctuated wildly from .330 to .243 to .319 to .249. He’s a star even at .250, but he’s a superstar at .275 and an MVP at .300. Projecting the future of that pattern is a $300 million question.
3. Josh Donaldson
Position(s): 3B
Age (as of 6/30/19): 33
Former team: Indians
Donaldson’s free agency revolves around how healthy teams think he can be for the next few seasons. He was the best third baseman in baseball from 2013-2017, winning one MVP award and finishing among the top four vote-getters for two others. However, he’s been increasingly banged up, just spent two-thirds of the season on the sidelines, and is at an age when rapid declines aren’t surprising, healthy or not. On the other hand, he still hit .246/.352/.449 while clearly less than 100 percent, including .280/.400/.520 in limited action for the Indians down the stretch. Added benefit of the August 31 trade: He’s exempt from draft-pick compensation, which would have made him an even riskier investment.
Teams convinced that Donaldson can stay healthy and be a plus defensively at third base could go hard after him on, say, a three-year deal rather than making a decade-long commitment to Machado. Teams that aren’t convinced he can do either, and instead value Donaldson mostly for his bat over the next season or two, may not think he’s worth paying a premium for compared to another right-handed slugger like Nelson Cruz. My guess is that at least one team will think paying Donaldson like the MVP-caliber third baseman he was prior to 2018 is a worthwhile gamble, particularly if he’s willing to take a short-term deal heavy on playing-time incentives.
4. Patrick Corbin
Position(s): SP
Age (as of 6/30/19): 29
Former team: Diamondbacks
Corbin made his first All-Star team in 2013 and made his second one this year. In between he missed one-and-a-half seasons recovering from elbow surgery and posted a 4.35 ERA. His breakout 2018 included dramatically upping his strikeout rate, allowing just 15 homers in 200 innings, and faring better against righties than lefties. He did all of that despite a dip in velocity and throwing an MLB-low 38 percent of his pitches in the strike zone, shifting to a sinker/slider approach that worked wonders. Compared to 2017—when Corbin had a decent 4.03 ERA and 178/61 K/BB ratio in 190 innings—his strikeout rate rose 43 percent, his walk rate shrank 19 percent, and he generated 42 percent more swinging strikes.
There are really no holes to poke in his 2018 numbers. He struck out more than one batter per inning and allowed a sub-.700 OPS in every month, and he was better on the road than at home. If anything, DRA (2.74) thinks Corbin was even better than his ERA (3.15) suggests. However, it’s certainly fair to wonder about the sustainability of a drop in velocity paired with a huge increase in strikeouts from a pitcher who so rarely threw strikes. The good news is that Corbin coming back down to earth in 2019 and beyond would likely just mean being a quality mid-rotation starter again, and at 29 he’s among the younger free agents. If multiple teams fully buy into Corbin’s breakout, his contract may shock people.
5. Dallas Keuchel
Position(s): SP
Age (as of 6/30/19): 31
Former team: Astros
In the span of four years Keuchel went from Cy Young-winning Astros ace to Houston’s third or fourth starter, although in fairness there’s no great shame in falling in line behind Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Back in 2015, he averaged 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings compared to the league average of 7.6. This past season, Keuchel averaged 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings compared to the league average of 8.5. So not only did he lose 1.7 strikeouts per nine innings—a decline of 26 percent on a per-batter basis—he did so at a time when strikeouts were rising dramatically across baseball. Keuchel’s swinging-strike rate and ground-ball rate also fell by 19 percent and 13 percent, respectively, from 2015 to 2018.
You don’t need me to tell you that fewer swinging strikes, strikeouts, and ground balls are discouraging signs for a 31-year-old, and his being a front-line starter again seems unlikely. However, evaluating him based on where he stands today, rather than in comparison to where he stood in 2015, shows a solid mid-rotation lefty coming off a 205-inning season. His diminished ground-ball rate was still seventh among the 140 pitchers with 100-plus innings in 2018, and he allowed just 18 homers in 874 plate appearances despite pitching in the shadow of the Crawford Boxes. DRA agrees with the mid-rotation assessment, pegging Keuchel at 3.87, 3.80, and 3.56 the past three years following a 2.48 mark in 2015.
6. Michael Brantley
Position(s): COF
Age (as of 6/30/19): 32
Former team: Indians
Brantley has fought through years of injuries—including a lost 2016—to re-establish himself as a premier left-handed bat. He hit .299/.357/.444 in 2017 before missing the final month with an ankle injury, and then hit .310/.379/.490 in 2018 while playing 147 games. Given his age and history it would be hard to blame teams for shying away from big offers, but his contact skills and gap-to-gap power are a rare combination. Among the 230 hitters with at least 750 plate appearances in 2017-2018, only Andrelton Simmons and Joe Panik had a lower strikeout rate. During that span, only Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Justin Turner, and Buster Posey had a strikeout rate below 12 percent and an OPS above .800.
If he’s healthy enough to be in the lineup, Brantley will hit .300 with 15-20 home runs, tons of doubles, and one of the best K/BB ratios in baseball. Among all left-handed hitters to play at least 500 games over the past five seasons, Brantley ranked eighth in OPS+ (127), surrounded on either side by Robinson Cano (129), Matt Carpenter (127), Daniel Murphy (126), and Brandon Belt (122). And while giving him some time at designated hitter is probably a good idea from a health management standpoint, Brantley is a decent defensive corner outfielder with above-average speed. He’s certainly not without considerable risk, but Brantley is capable of being one of this offseason’s better values.
7. A.J. Pollock
Position(s): CF
Age (as of 6/30/19): 31
Former team: Diamondbacks
Pollock had a superstar-level breakout in 2015, hitting .315/.367/.498 with 20 homers, 39 steals, and Gold Glove-winning defense at age 27. Then he missed nearly all of 2016 with a broken elbow and hasn’t been the same. He’s still very good, ranking 10th among center fielders in OPS+ for 2017-2018, but his days as an impact bat appear to have been short-lived. Center fielders with average-ish bats are plenty valuable, but Pollock missed 99 games the past two seasons along with the lost 2016 campaign and his defense now grades out poorly. He’s a top-10 center fielder today, but his age and injury history make betting on him to remain at that level throughout a long-term contract seem like wishful thinking.
None of which means he won’t get paid. Going after center fielders in free agency is inherently risky because most free agents are at an age where speed and athleticism begin to disappear. Last offseason a 32-year-old Lorenzo Cain got five years and $80 million from the Brewers. Two offseasons ago a 31-year-old Dexter Fowler got five years and $82.5 million from the Cardinals. Pollock is 31 and had a higher OPS (.801) in the two seasons before hitting free agency than Cain (.780) and Fowler (.794) had. Even if you don’t consider Pollock to be quite in the same class now as Cain or Fowler then, he’s at least within shouting distance and the alternative options for teams in search of a center fielder are lacking.
8. Craig Kimbrel
Position(s): RP
Age (as of 6/30/19): 31
Former team: Red Sox
Kimbrel is one of the most dominant relievers of all time through age 30. Among all pitchers in the past 100 years with at least 300 innings through age 30, he has the lowest ERA (1.91) and opponents’ batting average (.154) while ranking second to Aroldis Chapman in strikeout rate (41.6 percent). If you’re into such things, his 333 saves are by far the most by any pitcher through age 30, with only Francisco Rodriguez (294) also above 275. None of that guarantees he’ll remain dominant from age 31 on, through, and Kimbrel showed some clear signs of decline in 2018. Compared to 2017, his strikeout rate shrunk 22 percent, his walk rate more than doubled, and his average fastball lost 1.2 mph.
And yet even with those declines from 2017, his strikeout rate and opponents’ batting average were both among the top half-dozen in baseball, and his average fastball velocity was in the 95th percentile. Kimbrel’s stuff remains overpowering and the overall results have been elite every season, but how will that stuff look in 2-3 years and will it be enough to keep dominating if his often-shaky control abandons him further? Kimbrel is almost certain to be the highest-paid free agent reliever. Last offseason that title belonged to Wade Davis (three years, $52 million), and two offseasons ago Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon each signed for more than that.
9. Yasmani Grandal
Position(s): C
Age (as of 6/30/19): 30
Former team: Dodgers
Grandal had a nightmare postseason, hitting .138 and being benched for a failure to execute the most basic task required of his position: catching the ball. He was also benched during the Dodgers’ run to the World Series last October. And yet during the regular season he’s consistently been one of baseball’s best catchers. Grandal hit .249/.349/.466 with 24 homers and 72 walks in 140 games this year, trailing only Wilson Ramos and J.T. Realmuto in OPS among catchers to play at least 100 games. He also posted a top-10 OPS for the position in 2017, 2016, 2015, and 2014. Combined from 2014-2018, the only catcher to play 400 or more games with a higher OPS than Grandal was Buster Posey.
His defensive numbers shine even brighter thanks to averaging +22 framing runs in five full seasons. Even with mediocre throwing and blocking numbers, he led all catchers in Fielding Runs Above Average in 2018 and ranked fourth, second, and first in the previous three seasons. He’s incredibly good at getting pitchers extra strikes, which has huge value, and at least from April to September he’s been decent at blocking pitches and throwing out runners. Grandal’s free agency will be an interesting test case, not only for how much faith teams place in pitch framing but also in how much teams are scared away by a disastrous postseason. He’s a top-five player at the most demanding position, but will he get paid like it?
10. Wilson Ramos
Position(s): C
Age (as of 6/30/19): 31
Former team: Phillies
No free agent catcher has signed for more than $30 million since Russell Martin in 2015 and none of the past dozen offseasons saw two catchers get more than $30 million. Grandal and Ramos both figure to do so, although predicting which will cash in bigger is tricky. Grandal has been durable and consistent, but he’s also fallen apart in Octobers. Ramos missed most of 2017 recovering from knee surgery and has put on weight recently, but he was MLB’s best-hitting catcher the season before and the season after the injury. Grandal is a great framer with a so-so arm. Ramos is a so-so framer with a strong arm. Grandal hits for low averages with lots of walks. Ramos is a swing-at-everything, line-drive machine.
Rarely do multiple All-Star catchers hit the same market, and the Marlins likely trading a younger and (arguably) better catcher in Realmuto further complicates supply and demand. Ramos would be entering the third season of a long-term deal right now if not for the late-2016 injury. He was 28 and hit .307/.354/.496 in his walk year for the Nationals, but he had to settle for an incentive-laden two-year deal from the Rays. He struggled initially upon his return in mid-2017, but then hit .343/.371/.593 for the final six weeks. He missed a month of 2018 with hamstring problems, but hit .297/.346/.488 in 78 games for the Rays before the injury and .337/.396/.483 in 33 games for the Phillies after returning.
To read Part 2, featuring free agents 11-30, click here.
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