Just over two weeks ago, Brian Hunter‘s arbitration case was
heard. The Seattle Mariners offered him $1.75 million, while the player
countered with a figure of $2.45 million. To the surprise of many, Hunter
won the case, and will make the higher figure in 2000.
Well, that’s just the kind of thing that pricks up our ears. See, Hunter
isn’t just another mediocre player. He was probably the worst regular in
baseball last year, and…well, we’ll let Clay Davenport tell the story.
(For more on his methods, go
here.)
The following list includes all major-league players with 20 or more games
in left field in 1999. They’re ranked by total value (VAL), which is
offensive runs above replacement (a player with a .230 EqA and same number
of outs) plus defensive runs above replacement (a player with an 86 rating
at the position and equal net chances).
Brian Hunter was -13 on offense and +26 on defense for a net of -13. Of the
52 players who met the criteria, he was tied with Orlando Palmeiro
for 46th place, ahead of only Karim Garcia, Shane Spencer,
Daryle Ward, Tim Raines and Otis Nixon. All of these
players had significantly less playing time than Hunter, and all but Nixon
were producing at a better rate than Hunter.
All statistics are adjusted to a .270 BA, .340 OBP and .430 SLG hitting
environment, with adjusted EqA held constant.
Name Age Yr Team Lg AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS OUT BA OBP SLG EQA EQR VAL FVL DEFENSE LUIS GONZALEZ 31 1999 Arizona_ NL 617 207 47 4 25 58 62 107 105 8 5 415 .335 .400 .546 .310 111 70 66 145-LF 94 B.J. SURHOFF 34 1999 Baltimor AL 670 206 33 2 28 35 78 95 101 5 1 465 .307 .344 .488 .276 93 69 54 143-LF 110 GARY SHEFFIELD 30 1999 LosAngls NL 551 166 18 0 34 94 63 97 96 9 5 390 .301 .407 .519 .308 103 68 69 136-LF 99 RUSTY GREER 30 1999 Texas___ AL 546 160 41 3 18 88 67 96 90 2 2 388 .293 .396 .478 .295 91 67 69 143-LF 101 GEOFF JENKINS 24 1999 Milwauke NL 447 138 43 3 20 30 86 66 76 4 1 310 .309 .363 .553 .298 75 63 98 113-LF 111 BARRY BONDS 34 1999 San_Fran NL 360 98 23 2 35 70 61 91 82 14 2 264 .272 .395 .639 .328 82 62 86 88-LF 104 GREG VAUGHN 33 1999 Cincnnti NL 552 135 22 2 44 78 136 99 111 13 2 419 .245 .342 .531 .286 91 56 49 132-LF 102 JOHNNY DAMON 25 1999 KansasCy AL 576 173 38 9 13 60 50 92 70 36 6 409 .300 .369 .465 .287 90 56 66 131-LF 102 REGGIE SANDERS 31 1999 San_Dieg NL 481 137 25 7 25 59 107 86 68 31 13 357 .285 .371 .522 .294 83 56 64 81-LF 101 29-RF 103 TROY O'LEARY 29 1999 Boston__ AL 589 161 38 4 25 49 91 76 92 1 2 430 .273 .333 .479 .268 80 54 50 153-LF 104 RON GANT 34 1999 Philadel NL 515 131 27 5 16 78 111 99 71 11 3 387 .254 .354 .419 .266 70 48 45 126-LF 108 RONDELL WHITE 27 1999 Montreal NL 538 163 27 6 20 25 84 76 58 8 6 381 .303 .348 .487 .275 76 47 50 71-LF 102 57-CF 96 RAY LANKFORD 32 1999 St_Louis NL 423 128 31 1 15 44 109 72 59 12 4 299 .303 .373 .487 .288 67 46 60 98-LF 104 RICKEY HENDERSON 40 1999 NY_Mets_ NL 440 138 20 0 15 77 81 81 41 33 15 317 .314 .418 .461 .301 79 45 47 99-LF 94 BEN GRIEVE 23 1999 Oakland_ AL 484 129 18 0 28 57 108 73 81 4 0 355 .267 .353 .477 .278 72 41 66 111-LF 99 RICHARD HIDALGO 23 1999 Houston_ NL 387 90 26 2 15 51 72 47 54 7 5 302 .233 .329 .426 .254 49 41 71 78-LF 117 22-CF 102 DAVE JUSTICE 33 1999 Clevelnd AL 422 119 16 0 20 87 90 67 80 1 3 306 .282 .407 .462 .295 72 39 47 75-LF 94 HENRY RODRIGUEZ 31 1999 ChiCubs_ NL 444 130 24 0 26 50 112 65 80 1 4 318 .293 .364 .523 .288 71 39 47 111-LF 94 BRUCE AVEN 27 1999 Florida_ NL 386 115 20 2 12 39 81 56 69 3 0 271 .298 .377 .453 .283 58 35 50 62-LF 105 AL MARTIN 31 1999 Pittsbrg NL 543 150 38 8 23 42 118 91 59 17 3 396 .276 .329 .503 .276 79 33 32 125-LF 90 RYAN KLESKO 28 1999 Atlanta_ NL 408 124 31 2 21 48 68 54 78 4 2 286 .304 .380 .544 .302 72 32 44 58-1B 85 43-LF 80 BUBBA TRAMMELL 27 1999 TampaBay AL 280 80 15 1 14 40 37 44 36 0 2 202 .286 .377 .496 .288 45 30 59 53-LF 106 BENNY AGBAYANI 27 1999 NY_Mets_ NL 278 80 20 3 13 29 59 40 39 5 4 202 .288 .362 .522 .288 45 29 57 34-RF 110 29-LF 94 ALEX OCHOA 27 1999 Milwauke NL 277 81 18 3 7 41 43 44 37 5 4 200 .292 .394 .455 .288 44 27 56 38-LF 103 25-RF 93 DANTE BICHETTE 35 1999 Colorado NL 575 150 32 2 28 45 83 84 106 4 5 430 .261 .317 .470 .258 73 27 19 140-LF 93 CLIFF FLOYD 26 1999 Florida_ NL 254 78 20 1 11 27 47 36 47 4 6 182 .307 .379 .524 .291 42 26 63 58-LF 99 RICHIE SEXSON 24 1999 Clevelnd AL 476 119 17 7 29 29 117 65 105 3 3 360 .250 .299 .498 .258 61 25 38 54-1B 117 41-LF 89 RICKY LEDEE 25 1999 NY_Yanks AL 251 72 12 6 9 26 73 43 39 4 3 182 .287 .354 .490 .278 37 25 65 61-LF 105 BUTCH HUSKEY 27 1999 Seattle_ AL 259 73 7 0 15 23 45 39 45 3 1 187 .282 .340 .483 .273 36 24 51 26-LF 106 20-RF 103 ERIC OWENS 28 1999 San_Dieg NL 444 120 22 3 9 32 49 51 59 29 7 331 .270 .324 .394 .251 52 24 30 44-LF 103 31-CF 109 SHANNON STEWART 25 1999 Toronto_ AL 602 178 28 2 10 51 83 92 61 36 15 439 .296 .359 .399 .262 77 24 31 136-LF 88 LUIS POLONIA 34 1999 Detroit_ AL 330 104 21 8 9 12 32 41 29 16 9 235 .315 .343 .509 .278 48 22 35 26-LF 101 DARIN ERSTAD 25 1999 Anaheim_ AL 583 145 23 5 12 40 101 77 49 13 7 445 .249 .298 .367 .225 54 21 25 72-1B 97 64-LF 118 GERALD WILLIAMS 32 1999 Atlanta_ NL 427 119 24 1 17 27 66 71 65 16 11 319 .279 .332 .459 .261 55 21 26 81-LF 90 20-RF 97 CARLOS LEE 23 1999 ChiSox__ AL 492 145 34 2 15 7 72 61 79 4 2 349 .295 .310 .463 .255 57 19 37 97-LF 92 JOHN VANDERWAL 33 1999 San_Dieg NL 248 68 13 0 8 34 58 25 42 2 1 181 .274 .367 .423 .270 34 19 39 32-LF 112 JUAN ENCARNACION 23 1999 Detroit_ AL 508 127 32 6 17 8 113 56 67 32 12 393 .250 .274 .437 .238 54 19 34 108-LF 100 GLENALLEN HILL 34 1999 ChiCubs_ NL 252 74 8 1 19 18 60 39 50 4 1 179 .294 .341 .560 .291 41 18 33 27-LF 88 22-RF 81 ROB DUCEY 34 1999 Philadel NL 187 47 12 2 7 36 56 27 30 2 1 141 .251 .372 .449 .279 29 17 45 23-LF 113 STAN JAVIER 35 1999 San_Fran NL 338 97 16 1 3 25 54 47 30 11 6 247 .287 .338 .367 .243 36 16 22 47-LF 101 30-RF 101 CHAD ALLEN 24 1999 Minnesot AL 476 127 20 3 9 31 89 61 41 14 7 356 .267 .314 .378 .236 48 15 28 126-LF 96 CHAD CURTIS 30 1999 NY_Yanks AL 196 53 6 0 5 41 35 35 23 8 4 147 .270 .404 .378 .278 30 15 43 52-LF 94 ORLANDO MERCED 32 1999 Montreal NL 193 50 13 1 7 24 27 23 23 2 1 144 .259 .341 .446 .264 26 15 38 33-LF 106 PAUL SORRENTO 33 1999 TampaBay AL 292 68 15 1 10 45 101 37 38 1 1 225 .233 .343 .394 .253 36 14 21 50-LF 98 22-1B 89 WIL CORDERO 27 1999 Clevelnd AL 192 56 11 0 9 13 37 31 30 2 0 136 .292 .355 .490 .282 29 14 41 28-LF 96 BRIAN HUNTER 28 1999 Seattle_ AL 481 107 9 5 4 27 80 64 31 44 5 379 .222 .265 .287 .203 35 13 13 105-LF 110 ORLANDO PALMEIRO 30 1999 Anaheim_ AL 314 85 11 1 1 36 30 42 21 5 5 234 .271 .357 .322 .238 32 13 22 49-LF 100 24-RF 100 KARIM GARCIA 23 1999 Detroit_ AL 287 67 11 3 13 17 67 35 29 2 4 224 .233 .276 .429 .229 28 9 30 49-RF 95 26-LF 105 SHANE SPENCER 27 1999 NY_Yanks AL 206 50 8 0 8 16 51 24 19 0 4 160 .243 .304 .398 .229 20 8 20 40-LF 107 DARYLE WARD 24 1999 Houston_ NL 152 42 7 0 8 7 31 11 29 0 0 110 .276 .308 .480 .258 19 7 36 23-LF 96 TIM RAINES 39 1999 Oakland_ AL 134 28 5 0 4 25 17 19 16 4 1 107 .209 .333 .336 .239 15 7 22 29-LF 102 OTIS NIXON 40 1999 Atlanta_ NL 152 32 2 1 0 22 15 28 8 23 7 127 .211 .310 .237 .215 14 -3 -18 32-LF 81
Hunter’s 1999 season, when he hit for a .203 Equivalent Average with more
than 500 plate appearances, is almost unprecedented in major-league
history. Since 1901, only seven outfielders in the prime ages of 27-29 have
had 250 or more at-bats and an EqA under .210.
One is Hunter.
One is George Barclay, who did it in 1904 and played his last
major-league game in 1905:
AGE YR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB+ SB CS OUT RUN RBI BA OBP SLG UEQR EQA EQR RAR WAR
26 1902 STL-N 543 163 14 2 3 37 30 10 390 79 53 .300 .345 .350 76 0.2843 84 35 18
27 1903 STL-N 419 104 10 8 0 17 12 4 319 37 42 .248 .278 .310 40 0.2219 37 -3 -20
28 1904 BOS-N 93 21 3 1 0 4 3 1 73 5 10 .226 .258 .280 8 0.2236 9 -1 -4
28 1904 STL-N 375 75 7 4 1 18 14 5 305 41 28 .200 .237 .248 25 0.2058 29 -9 -25
29 1905 BOS-N 108 19 1 0 0 4 2 1 90 5 7 .176 .205 .185 3 0.1450 4 -8 -13
1538 382 35 15 4 80 61 20 1176 167 140 .248 .286 .298 151 0.2380 162 14 -44
The same description applies to Pat Carney, except that he didn’t
make it to 1905:
AGE YR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB+ SB CS OUT RUN RBI BA OBA SLG UEQR EQA EQR RAR WAR
24 1901 BOS-N 55 16 2 1 0 4 0 0 39 6 6 .291 .339 .364 8 0.2591 7 2 0
25 1902 BOS-N 522 141 17 4 2 54 27 9 390 75 65 .270 .339 .330 71 0.2821 82 33 16
26 1903 BOS-N 392 94 12 4 1 32 10 3 301 37 49 .240 .297 .298 41 0.2314 39 1 -14
27 1904 BOS-N 279 57 5 2 0 13 6 2 224 24 11 .204 .240 .237 17 0.1983 20 -9 -21
1248 308 36 11 3 103 43 14 954 142 131 .247 .304 .300 137 0.2489 148 27 -19
Forty-five years later, in 1949, Paul Lehner did it. He would make a
strong recovery in 1950, but was then only a part-time player for the final
two years of his career.
AGE YR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB+ SB CS OUT RUN RBI BA OBA SLG UEQR EQA EQR RAR WAR
25 1946 STL-A 45 10 1 2 0 1 0 0 35 6 5 .222 .239 .333 3 0.2100 4 -1 -3
26 1947 STL-A 483 120 25 9 7 31 5 5 368 59 48 .248 .294 .381 52 0.2412 53 6 -12
27 1948 STL-A 333 92 15 4 2 30 0 2 243 23 46 .276 .336 .363 40 0.2384 34 3 -9
28 1949 STL-A 297 68 13 0 3 17 0 2 231 25 37 .229 .271 .303 21 0.1918 19 -11 -23
29 1950 PHI-A 427 132 17 5 9 32 1 1 296 48 52 .309 .357 .436 64 0.2756 59 21 9
30 1951 CHI-A 72 15 3 1 0 10 0 0 57 9 3 .208 .305 .278 6 0.2208 7 -1 -4
30 1951 CLE-A 13 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 10 2 1 .231 .286 .231 1 0.1937 1 0 -1
30 1951 PHI-A 28 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 24 1 1 .143 .172 .179 0 -.0617 0 -3 -5
30 1951 STL-A 67 9 5 0 1 6 0 1 59 2 2 .134 .205 .254 2 0.1367 2 -5 -9
31 1952 BOS-A 3 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 2 .667 .800 .667 2 0.6290 2 1 1
1768 455 80 21 22 131 6 11 1324 175 197 .257 .309 .364 191 0.2356 178 10 -54
In 1954, his only full-time season in the majors, Bob Talbot did it.
AGE YR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB+ SB CS OUT RUN RBI BA OBA SLG UEQR EQA EQR RAR WAR
26 1953 CHI-N 30 10 0 1 0 0 1 0 20 5 0 .333 .333 .400 4 0.2559 3 1 0
27 1954 CHI-N 403 97 15 4 1 19 3 6 312 45 19 .241 .275 .305 28 0.1954 26 -13 -30
433 107 15 5 1 19 4 6 332 50 19 .247 .279 .312 32 0.1999 30 -12 -30
Another 34 years elapsed before it happened again, this time with Mike
Davis. Davis was a pretty good hitter from 1985 to 1987 before
plummeting in 1988, and though he recovered somewhat in 1989, he was out of
the majors for good.
AGE YR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB+ SB CS OUT RUN RBI BA OBA SLG UEQR EQA EQR RAR WAR
21 1980 OAK-A 95 20 2 1 1 7 2 1 76 11 8 .211 .265 .284 6 0.2077 7 -2 -6
22 1981 OAK-A 20 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 19 0 0 .050 .136 .100 -1 -.1041 0 -3 -4
23 1982 OAK-A 75 30 4 0 1 2 3 2 47 12 10 .400 .416 .493 13 0.3226 14 8 6
24 1983 OAK-A 443 122 24 4 8 32 32 15 336 61 62 .275 .324 .402 59 0.2680 62 20 5
25 1984 OAK-A 382 88 18 3 9 32 14 9 303 47 46 .230 .290 .364 40 0.2468 46 7 -7
26 1985 OAK-A 547 157 34 1 24 52 24 10 400 92 82 .287 .349 .484 92 0.2992 98 47 31
27 1986 OAK-A 489 131 28 3 19 35 27 4 362 77 55 .268 .317 .454 73 0.2828 77 31 16
28 1987 OAK-A 494 131 32 1 22 43 19 7 370 69 72 .265 .324 .468 75 0.2810 77 31 15
29 1988 LA_-N 281 55 11 2 2 25 7 3 229 29 17 .196 .261 .270 20 0.2081 23 -6 -18
30 1989 LA_-N 173 43 7 1 5 16 6 5 135 21 19 .249 .312 .387 21 0.2692 25 8 2
2999 778 161 16 91 246 134 56 2277 419 371 .259 .316 .415 398 0.2696 430 141 39
The final player to pull it off also did it in 1999, the Expos’ Manny
Martinez.
AGE YR TEAM AB H DB TP HR BB+ SB CS OUT RUN RBI BA OBA SLG UEQR EQA EQR RAR WAR
25 1996 PHI-N 36 8 0 2 0 2 2 1 29 2 0 .222 .263 .333 3 0.2140 3 -1 -2
25 1996 SEA-A 17 4 2 1 0 3 2 0 13 3 3 .235 .350 .471 3 0.2909 3 1 1
27 1998 PIT-N 180 45 11 2 6 11 0 3 138 21 24 .250 .293 .433 21 0.2407 20 2 -4
28 1999 MON-N 331 81 12 7 2 17 19 6 256 48 26 .245 .282 .341 31 0.2088 26 -7 -20
564 138 25 12 8 33 23 10 436 74 53 .245 .286 .374 58 0.2229 51 -5 -26
The final entry I have is a portion of our forecasting routine, which
identifies the players who, over a three-year period, were most similar to
the player being tested. This chart means that the player (since 1950) who
most resembled Brian Hunter’s 1997-99 performance was Tom Goodwin,
between 1995 and 1997. In 1998, the fourth year, Goodwin had 33 fewer
at-bats than he had averaged over the prior three years, seven fewer hits,
six fewer doubles, etc.
Virtually every player on the list declined across the board in the fourth
year of the comparison. Stolen bases decline especially rapidly, an ominous
sign for Hunter, since that and defense are his only real skills. Jerry
Royster, Freddie Patek, Luis Polonia and Bump
Wills are the only ones who ever hit for a .260 (league average) EqA in
the entire remainder of their career.
Hunter’s comp list looks like this.
AB H DB TP HR BB SB CS EQR
5007 TOM GOODWIN 1998. -33 -7 -6 -1 0 31 -26 -3 1
6943 DAVID HULSE 1996. -296 -88 -9 -8 -1 -17 -20 -4 -35
6992 OMAR MORENO 1983. -112 -30 2 0 -2 -22 -24 -8 -17
7041 FRANK TAVERAS 1980. -70 -5 -6 -8 0 -12 -21 -2 -10
7230 IVAN DEJESUS 1982. -98 -17 2 0 0 -10 -15 -10 -3
7240 JERRY ROYSTER 1982. -120 -20 -8 -1 1 -13 -7 -2 -6
7449 CHICO FERNANDEZ 1960. 64 17 1 0 0 9 4 0 8
7785 FRANK TAVERAS 1979. 103 29 14 0 0 -6 -12 1 4
7806 ROGER METZGER 1976. -58 -26 5 -4 0 13 -8 -5 -5
7845 PEDRO GONZALEZ 1967. -103 -31 -8 -1 -1 -2 -2 1 -13
8313 DARREN LEWIS 1997. -350 -86 -14 -4 -3 -40 -17 -9 -35
8355 FREDDIE PATEK 1974. -14 -16 -3 -2 0 31 -20 0 -2
8630 JOE SIMPSON 1983. -253 -72 -17 -2 -3 -14 -14 -6 -28
8631 LUIS POLONIA 1994. -102 -20 7 2 0 5 -24 -3 0
8644 GENE CLINES 1976. 196 71 6 0 0 -2 -1 3 19
8900 DAVE NELSON 1975. -455 -136 -24 -3 -3 -44 -48 -17 -54
9181 CHUCK CARR 1995. -66 -27 -3 -1 3 19 -9 1 -3
9460 BUMP WILLS 1982. -161 -48 -10 0 4 0 -5 -3 -8
10116 DON BLASINGAME 1961. -115 -55 -3 -4 -1 -18 -24 -7 -31
10147 EDDIE MIKSIS 1954. -388 -105 -21 -2 -3 -29 -18 -7 -39
Hunter’s projection for 2000:
AB H DB TP HR BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG EQA EQR
2000 SEA 513 127 18 4 3 38 86 32 9 0.247 0.299 0.313 0.222 46
Even with superior defense, these numbers would keep him among the worst
left fielders in baseball.
Thank you for reading
This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.
Subscribe now