![]() |
TORONTO BLUE JAYS Team Audit | Team DT Cards | Team Articles | Team Statistics |
Headlined by Alexis Rios, Toronto right fielders in 2005 combined for a .251 EqA–the Jays’ deepest offensive sinkhole besides catcher. Defense was the outfield’s saving grace, though, yielding a combined 33 runs fewer than league average. For better or worse, the outfield remains intact. The extent of the Jays’ tinkering occurred in the Lyle Overbay deal, which shipped fifth outfielder Gabe Gross to Milwaukee. (He only logged 92 at-bats in 2005.)
The real transformations, rather, have focused on fixing the infield, rotation, and bullpen. The ink was still fresh on B.J. Ryan‘s new papers last time we checked in, so today we will explore the infield and starting pitching changes. As a twist, we’ll completely ignore the financial aspects, since they’ve already been covered and the Jays did have cash to burn. Instead, how does the 2006 squad stack up against last year’s?
- Crowded Corners: Toronto’s first season sans Carlos Delgado was rough. Eric Hinske slid across the diamond to play first, Corey Koskie signed a fat three-year deal, and Shea Hillenbrand was acquired to DH and split time at both corners. The Jays used 10 players at DH who together scraped out a roughly league-average line of .272/.347/.432. Hinske’s disastrous year was mostly responsible for the .267/.314/.449 production among the first basemen (well below league average). At third base, decent numbers from Koskie and Aaron Hill helped establish a .282/.361/.421 line (well above league average). Not the most inspiring collection of corner men and DHs, but if the goal was .500 baseball, this posse certainly got the job done. If all this weren’t average enough, fielders at the corners combined for -1 Fielding Run Above Average (FRAA). Incredibly average.
New guys Troy Glaus and Overbay will definitely add thunder to this bunch. Flipping Koskie to Milwaukee unclogged things some, but the corner logjam remains as congested as ever. Now Hillenbrand and Hinske will share time at DH, spelling Glaus and Overbay when necessary.
FIRST BASE 2005 proj. 2006 AdjG Rate EqA* G Rate EqA Hinske 96.2 94 .269 Overbay 137 106 .279 Hillenbrand 65.8 99 .278 ---------------------------- TOTAL 162.0 104 .270 THIRD BASE 2005 proj. 2006 AdjG Rate EqA* G Rate EqA Koskie 75.5 105 .264 Glaus 128 95 .299 Hillenbrand 50.5 98 .278 Hill 32.1 106 .261 Menechino 3.9 125 .255 ---------------------------- TOTAL 162.0 104 .270
*In all cases, the player’s listed Equivalent Average (EqA) is his total EqA at all positions; therefore, team positional totals will not add up evenly.
- Squandered: Prior to the Glaus and Koskie trades, Dayn Perry stood up for the Blue Jays amidst the jeering of the masses. But these most recent moves have severely damaged the defense. Not only does Toronto lose the glove of Orlando Hudson–often regarded as baseball’s slickest second baseman–there’s also the defensive downgrade at third, exacerbated by Koskie’s exodus. Once these crippling moves were made, Perry had no choice but to recant in an article at FoxSports.com.
SECOND BASE 2005 proj. 2006 AdjG Rate EqA* G Rate EqA Hudson 119.5 114 .259 Hill 126 103^ .250 Menechino 20.0 120 .255 Hill 19.9 120 .261 McDonald 2.6 100 .256 ---------------------------- TOTAL 162.0 115 .262 ^Hill's Rate actually projected at SS SHORTSTOP 2005 proj. 2006 AdjG Rate EqA* G Rate EqA Adams 123.2 82 .259 Adams 137 93 .250 McDonald 25.1 100 .256 Hill 13.5 100 .261 Menechino 0.2 100 .255 ---------------------------- TOTAL 162.0 87 .260
What’s more, unless the Blue Jays let Ryan Roberts or Rob Cosby leapfrog Triple-A, either John McDonald or Sergio Santos appears next in line as the backup middle infielder. One more layer of depth is peeled away.
Overall, despite the hike in production at the hot corner and a modest gain at first base, the defensive tradeoffs around the infield are very significant. Factor in the projected loss of offense up the middle, and it’s debatable whether the Blue Jays have improved their infield at all.
- Who Knows?: Plus A.J. Burnett, minus David Bush. While this seems straightforward and the Jays rotation looks strong at first glance, each starter will arrive in Dunedin with a varying degree of baggage.
There’s no reason Roy Halladay shouldn’t be healthy this year. The shin injury–wrought by a Kevin Mench line drive–was a fluke. In his healthy months, Halladay’s numbers rivaled his 2003 Cy Young campaign. Still, when your trustiest starter hasn’t pitched in nine months (come Opening Day), it’s small cause for concern. Burnett enjoyed his healthiest year to date in 2005, but he’s moving to a new league in a tougher park for pitchers. With his less-than-pristine health record, the Jays will need to keep an eye on him.
After the big two, things get far sketchier. Ted Lilly is coming off a miserable season after three years of decency. Gustavo Chacin‘s peripherals didn’t support his fine 2005 debut, and PECOTA has him pegged for a 4.69 ERA. Josh Towers, also coming off a nice season, is the type of pitcher whose low walk and low strikeout rates carry a high risk of implosion (see his 2004).
To grasp the volatility of this staff, look at what they’ve done the past three years:
2005 2004 2003 ERA IP VORP ERA IP VORP ERA IP VORP Halladay 2.41 142 52.7 4.20 133 26.1 3.25 266 68.8 Burnett 3.44 209 33.1 3.67 120 26.8 4.70 23 1.6 Lilly 5.56 126 2.8 4.06 197 44.6 4.34 178 28.5 Chacin 3.72 203 38.4 2.57 14 5.7 Towers 3.71 209 34.1 5.11 116 10.5 4.48 64 9.5
Fortunately, the Jays bullpen has several swingmen-types who could step into the rotation in the event of injury. But we’ll save the pen for another day.
Thank you for reading
This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.
Subscribe now