Even though we’re all wonderful fantasy baseball players, sometimes things just don’t always go according to plan. In those, I’m sure rare occasions, dynasty leagues are fun. I came late to the dynasty party, but dove in headfirst, pestering leaguemates with deals 24/7/365 in an attempt to quench my degenerate fantasy thirst. Along the way, I said some stupid things (or at least things that look really stupid in retrospect, if not at the time), and looking back, I learned some valuable dynasty lessons.
Here are just a handful of said stupid things (please keep the pointing and laughing to a minimum).
- “Ok, ok. Two minutes to the deadline, what about (Rich) Hill, (Gleyber) Torres, (Ronald) Guzmán and (Mychal) Givens for (Roberto) Osuna?”
Lesson: Try not to make decisions on the clock
Sometimes things get weird around the trade deadline. In this particular iteration of the deadline, I was looking to acquire Osuna, who at the time was a 21-year-old stud closer, as opposed to being the ancient, 24-year-old stud closer he is today. Sensing some foot dragging, I made the cardinal mistake of just adding assets to try and close the deal, which is where the ticking clock of the deadline plays a role. In my head, Osuna could help nab a few saves down the stretch, while also being a bullpen cornerstone for the future. Makes sense. Hill, as we all know, is a bit older and oft-injured, though still quite good. The prospects, well, who cares? They have a ways to go, and I’m sure they won’t amount to anything that would haunt me.
As luck would have it, the deal was agreed to with maybe 30 seconds left before the trade deadline, but couldn’t be consummated on the site before the clock struck midnight. At the time, I was not pleased with the lack of urgency before the waning moments of trade season. In retrospect: wow, sure dodged a bullet there. Aside from the regret that would surely follow missing the Torres breakout, the rush to make a deal was bad process on my part. It’s always better to trade from a position of strength, and if not strength, at least a position devoid of desperation. Sure, sometimes that’s easier said than done, but I think many of my worst dynasty decisions came from a desperation to nab someone at peak value or to simply make a move, period (because trades are so much fun and sometimes I can’t stop), as opposed to an error in evaluation. I guess to sum up—just be cool, man.
- “No, I’m probably not trading (A.J.) Reed. He’s been my most asked about prospect.”
Lesson: Beware of the 1B-only guys, or at least don’t make anyone untouchable.
For a stretch in 2015, I got a little obsessed with Reed. It was unhealthy. In my defense, the then 22-year-old had just followed up a .346/.449/.638 line in High-A with a Double-A promotion that saw the lefty hit .332 with an OPS approaching 1.000 in 237 trips to the plate in Corpus Christi. The dude walked a lot, didn’t strike out much and even made Triple-A look easy the following season, slugging 34 dongs in 556 plate appearances. What’s not to love? Well, I guess to answer that question, I’ve learned that relying upon 1B-only prospects is somewhat of a fool’s errand. For every Rhys Hoskins or Pete Alonso (and I’m pretty fired up to be able to include Daniel Vogelbach on this list now), the path to stardom at the cold corner is littered with others that didn’t quite make it: like Matt LaPorta, Lars Anderson, Brett Wallace, Ike Davis, Al Chambers (jumping in the way-back machine), etc. etc. etc.
On a larger scale, my prospect clutching proved costly. It’s great to dream on potential, but it’s also unrealistic to bake that potential into future lineups. I learned that lesson (and am still wrestling with that concept) the hard way. My longing for Reed to become a cornerstone in my lineup cost me Austin Meadows (who I said I’d rather trade than Reed) and…drumroll please…Christian Yelich, an offer I turned down with Reed serving as one of the MiLB principals. Not great. Prospects are fun, but so are All Stars.
- “This might be a crazy ask, but how much do I need to give up for Joc Pederson?”
Lesson: Don’t count on linear improvements (or: it’s way easier to steal bases in the minor leagues).
Pederson was the subject of one of the first pieces I wrote over at The Dynasty Guru, and after diving into the numbers, I was enamored with the possibilities. In 2014, Pederson socked 33 dingers and snagged 30 bases at Triple-A Oklahoma City, and he did so with a walk rate over 18 percent. He torched opposing pitchers to start his rookie season, earning himself a spot on the 2015 All-Star team. The second half was a dumpster fire, but like all young guys with promise, you think “And he’ll be even better next year.” Sometimes it works out that way, but unfortunately not always. You always hear us preach that prospect development isn’t linear (and you’re probably tired of hearing it), but the reason we say it is, well, because it’s true (we’re bound to get one right eventually). Since his rookie reason, Yung Joc has been fine. In fact, he’s probably been a little better than that, hitting a homer once every 19 plate appearances or so, relegated mostly to a platoon role against righties. Again, that’s fine. But it definitely isn’t the 30/30 monster potential he flashed in the minors. Some guys get incrementally better each season, with more of a bell-curve career trajectory. Some guys are what they are, and you can’t expect them to be more.
Alternative lesson: good lord is it so much easier to steal bases in the minor leagues. You’re definitely going to want to take minor-league theft totals with the biggest grain of salt.
- “What about Hector Santiago for Joey Rickard?”
Lesson: Some trades are just sad and you shouldn’t spend a ton of time agonizing over them.
I feel like this one is pretty self explanatory. Moving on.
- “I’m open for business!”
(promptly receives an offer of Justin Smoak, Aníbal Sánchez, Alexei Ramírez, Cody Asche, Peter O’Brien, Chance Sisco, Carlos Beltrán, Ike Davis and Mark Trumbo for Nolan Arenado and Madison Bumgarner)
Lesson: Don’t take the first offer (or: remember, roster spots are valuable; or: don’t be this person).
That’s a motley crew of names right there.
This might not be the best example of the proverbial four quarters for a dollar trade (I don’t even know what this would be—nine pennies for a Ben Franklin?), but the basic idea remains the same. Even if you’re trading quality for quantity, you need the roster spots. If you have to cut four dudes you’d rather not cut to make way for your new dudes, you’re really losing a lot more than the initial quality given up. This seems pretty obvious, but I’ve definitely run into issues with flooding my roster with bodies in previous seasons (not with this offer, because, uh, this offer was less than stellar).
Also, don’t be this person. So much of dynasty trade talks are based on building up a rapport over the years, and I find it’s much better to perhaps try not to be a raging jerk in discussions. Telling me how much my players are struggling in an attempt to low-ball an offer is never a good idea, and oh boy can I ever hold a grudge…
Except for you, A.J. Reed. Best wishes on the South Side of Chicago.
Thank you for reading
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