Welcome back to Prospectus Toolbox-our weekly look at the statistical tools we use to analyze baseball. This week, we’re taking a quick look at an event that can completely change the outcome of an inning, wrecking rallies or bailing out the pitcher, depending on your point of view. It’s the double play, also known as the twin killing, or the pitcher’s best friend.
To start things off, let’s look at the league leaders in double plays batted into for 2007:
Player Team Lg DP GDP LDP FDP KDP Ryan Zimmerman WAS NL 30 25 3 0 1 Mark Teahen KCA AL 29 23 1 1 4 Brandon Phillips CIN NL 29 26 1 0 2 Carlos Lee HOU NL 28 25 2 0 1 Albert Pujols SLN NL 28 24 2 1 1 Matt Holliday COL NL 27 23 1 0 3 Michael Young TEX AL 25 21 3 1 0 Nick Markakis BAL AL 24 22 1 0 1 David Ortiz BOS AL 24 17 3 3 1 Paul Konerko CHA AL 23 20 2 1 0
One of the complaints we sometimes get from readers is that our double play statistic doesn’t match up with stats from other sources. That’s because most other outlets only give you groundball double play (GDP) data; our double play stat includes all of the double play varieties, including lineout double plays (LDP), flyout double plays (FDP), popouts (PDP), and strikeout/throw out double plays (KDP). GDP have made up about 86.6 percent of all double plays in 2007, LDP 6.5 percent, KDP 3.3 percent, FDP 3.2 percent, and PDP only 0.4 percent. That distribution doesn’t necessarily apply on a player-by-player basis, however. Ichiro Suzuki only grounded into two double plays all year, but he led the majors in non-groundball double plays, with eight (two flyouts, six lineouts), so he was listed as having hit into 10 double plays total.
Although the raw list of double plays is helpful, it lacks context. When we think about batters that are a risk to hit into double plays, we generally think of batters that are slow, and perhaps give extra consideration to those with known groundball tendencies. We rarely consider a batter’s opportunities to hit into a double play-after all, a player who always comes to bat with two outs or with no one on base won’t ever hit into double plays, not because of any particular skill, but because he never had the opportunity.
To look at that context, we can turn to the Double Play Rate for Batters sortable report on our Statistics page. In that report, you’ll find two key statistics that are based on the batter’s opportunities. First, you have the double play rate (DP%). Unlike other “rate” statistics, we are not measuring the batter’s double plays against his total plate appearances or at-bats; DP% is measured in terms of double plays turned per double play opportunity, or more simply, any plate appearances in which the batter comes to the plate with less than two outs and a man on first base.
The other statistic is net double plays (NetDP), which measures a player’s double play performance against what an average player would have done, given the same opportunities. The average player would have a NetDP of 0.0, with higher numbers indicating that a person hit into more double plays than average, and negative numbers if they hit into fewer double plays. So, let’s take a look at the leaders and trailers in NetDP, for 2007:
2007 NetDP Leaders Player Team DP DP% NetDP Yadier Molina SLN 21 26.3 10.93 Ryan Zimmerman WAS 30 18.9 9.99 Brandon Phillips CIN 29 19.1 9.87 Yorvit Torrealba COL 20 24.7 9.81 Mark Teahen KCA 29 19.7 9.68 Orlando Hudson ARI 22 22.2 9.54 Carlos Lee HOU 28 18.9 9.38 Matt Holliday COL 27 18.9 9.00 Miguel Tejada BAL 22 22.2 8.99 Paul Lo Duca NYN 20 22.5 8.80
2007 NetDP Trailers Player Team DP DP% NetDP Jonny Gomes TBA 0 0.0 -7.89 Corey Patterson BAL 5 5.2 -7.62 Carlos Beltran NYN 8 6.5 -7.60 Adrian Gonzalez SDN 9 6.9 -7.49 Hideki Matsui NYA 12 8.1 -7.45 Edwin Encarnacion CIN 5 5.1 -7.33 Gary Sheffield DET 11 7.9 -7.27 Mark Ellis OAK 12 8.3 -6.93 Eric Byrnes ARI 9 7.1 -6.86 Jack Cust OAK 7 6.8 -6.54
The Leaders list gains a mass of National League catchers (Molina, Torrealba, and LoDuca) but also adds a couple of not-too-slow middle infielders (Orlando Hudson and Miguel Tejada); on the trailers side the big surprise is Hideki Matsui, who earned the nickname “Groundzilla” when he hit into 28 double plays in his rookie season. Since then, Matsui’s double-play levels have been at or below average given the sheer number of opportunities the Yankee offense gives him.
We can also use NetDP to see which teams are performing better or worse with regard to double plays:
Team Lg G PA R OBP DP NetDP CLE AL 155 6,084 779 .344 135 -23.64 FLO NL 156 6,121 758 .336 124 -22.10 NYA AL 155 6,220 916 .364 157 -20.27 PHI NL 156 6,320 861 .355 137 -18.05 SDN NL 155 5,973 688 .320 120 -16.19 LAN NL 156 6,053 708 .337 138 -12.89 NYN NL 155 6,062 767 .342 128 -10.93 DET AL 156 6,142 853 .344 144 -9.77 BOS AL 156 6,186 832 .361 158 -6.68 TBA AL 156 6,043 755 .336 139 -5.05 TOR AL 155 5,929 710 .326 139 -2.41 TEX AL 156 5,997 782 .328 145 -2.04 MIL NL 155 5,958 753 .329 126 -1.49 ARI NL 156 5,865 690 .320 127 -0.61 CIN NL 156 6,117 761 .337 154 1.60 OAK AL 157 6,179 727 .339 168 1.74 ATL NL 156 6,148 785 .341 153 1.95 COL NL 156 6,201 813 .353 157 4.69 CHN NL 156 6,043 728 .334 147 6.56 ANA AL 156 5,986 805 .347 168 7.03 BAL AL 155 5,983 712 .333 155 7.03 SEA AL 155 5,941 765 .338 172 7.47 CHA AL 156 5,891 664 .317 148 8.30 HOU NL 156 6,098 696 .330 159 8.60 PIT NL 156 6,002 704 .324 148 10.34 WAS NL 156 5,958 636 .323 155 12.78 SFN NL 156 5,973 648 .319 150 15.45 MIN AL 155 5,927 698 .331 160 17.77 SLN NL 155 5,936 690 .337 172 19.09 KCA AL 155 5,891 686 .324 169 20.61
The spread from best to worst in the majors isn’t huge-about 43 outs (as opposed to the usual measures we prefer here, wins or runs). Still, every edge counts.
We can also look back at the best/worst performances by NetDP since 1959:
Player Team Year DP DP% NetDP John Bateman MON 1971 33 30.3 18.18 Sherm Lollar CHA 1959 31 28.4 17.02 Harmon Killebrew MIN 1970 35 25.0 16.91 Brad Ausmus HOU 2002 31 29.0 16.69 Aramis Ramirez CHN 2004 31 27.0 16.30 Tony Armas BOS 1983 35 26.1 16.17 Paul Konerko CHA 2003 29 28.7 15.91 A.J. Pierzynski SFN 2004 31 26.3 15.91 Dale Murphy ATL 1988 30 26.8 15.55 Cal Ripken Jr. BAL 1985 36 24.0 15.36
By 1971, John Bateman was heading toward the end of his career after long stints with two expansion franchises, the Astros and Expos. You also have some great hitters in this group (Killebrew, Ripken, Murphy, Armas) although most of them were not exactly fleet of foot. The person who’s probably best associated with double plays, Boston left fielder Jim Rice, doesn’t crack the top 50 of NetDP, even though he set the record for most GIDP in a single season (36 in 1985, when he had 12.47 NetDP).
As for the single-season leaders since 1959 in terms of being the least likely to hit into a double play?
Player Team Year DP DP% NetDP Joe Morgan CIN 1976 3 2.2 -15.35 Ken Griffey Sr. CIN 1976 4 3.0 -13.82 Joe Morgan CIN 1972 7 4.4 -13.74 Leon Wagner LAA 1962 6 3.8 -13.67 Johnny Callison PHI 1965 9 5.3 -13.31 Mickey Mantle NYA 1961 3 2.3 -13.07 Joe Morgan CIN 1975 6 4.1 -13.02 Travis Fryman DET 1993 11 6.0 -12.91 Mike Lum ATL 1973 2 1.8 -12.71 Kirk Gibson DET 1984 5 3.8 -12.66
This chart is dominated by the Big Red Machine, and perhaps most notably by Hall of Famer Joe Morgan. It’s also worth noting that Travis Fryman is the only member of this group who did not bat left-handed, at least most of the time (the Mick’s the lone switch-hitter).
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