“This team, it all flows from me. I’m the straw that stirs the drink. Maybe I should say me and [Thurman] Munson, but he can only stir it bad.”
-Attributed to Reggie Jackson in the May 1977 issue of Sport magazine.
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For all baseball fans, there is one season that holds a special place in our hearts. For many, that is the first season where we really followed the game from the season’s blossoming in spring, through the long hot summer, and on into the shorter and colder days of autumn. For me, 1977 was that season. As a nine-year-old boy, I started that ritual (interrupted briefly by the release of Star Wars) of watching standings, studying box scores, and keeping up with my favorite team while noticing the events of the larger game. At the same time, I started working hard to collect the entire 1977 Topps baseball card set, which I finally did a few years later.
What I remember most was that “our” Cubs-and even as a nine-year old I understood the frustration that went with that term from my father and grandfather-were hot and seemed destined to make the postseason. After posting a mediocre 7-9 record in April, the new-look team featuring Bobby Murcer and Steve Ontiveros from the Giants and Bill Buckner and Ivan DeJesus from the Dodgers won 21 of 28 games in May, and another 19 of 27 in June to run their record up to 47-24, taking a 7½ game lead over the Phillies as the calendar turned to July. My personal interest was heightened that month, as my family attended the doubleheader on July 27th against the Big Red Machine, marking my first trip to Wrigley Field. Although the Cubs would lose the first game 6-2 to rookie Mario Soto, they would come back and score five runs in the eighth inning of the second game, sparked by leadoff triple by DeJesus (I confess, my favorite player) to earn the split; a feat we witnessed second-hand via WGN radio, as we’d cut out early for the long drive back to Iowa.
Despite that offensive outburst, the Cubs that summer were doing it on the strength of their run prevention, led by the emergence of Bruce Sutter, who reeled off 24 saves and threw 81 1/3 innings before the All-Star break. In some ways, his usage that season foreshadowed the modern closer role, as manager Herman Franks called on him with the Cubs trailing only six times in 62 appearances. When Sutter came down with a back injury that would sideline him for three weeks, the team scuffled; by the time he came back, it was too late to avoid a third-place finish and a 81-81 record.
Despite this first of many disappointments as a Cubs fan, the 1977 season will always be a memorable one for me, with games witnessed later that summer at Royals Stadium in the midst of a rain shower, hoping to see Brooks Robinson play in his final season, and also at Arlington Stadium, where the soon-to-be world champion Yankees played the Rangers.
More generally, that season will also be remembered for:
- The offensive outburst, perhaps fueled by unusually warm weather or differences in the ball (Rawlings became the exclusive vendor in 1977), that saw home runs increase by 27 percent, helping George Foster crack 50 home runs, the first time it had been done since Willie Mays did it in 1965;
- The 260 stolen bases of the Pirates, the National League’s highest total since the Deadball Era;
- The Royals’ 16-game winning streak, and 24 wins in 25 games down the stretch, reminiscent of this year’s Rockies;
Reggie Jackson’s three-homer capper in Game Six of the World Series.
So, in honor of that season, we’ll turn back the clock 30 years and take a look at the best and worst baserunners of 1977.
Leaders, Trailers, and Trends
As with the 2007 leaders we discussed a couple of weeks ago, we’ll begin with advancement on ground balls (EqGAR). Keep in mind that all of these values are based on a multi-year run expectancy matrix that includes 1977, and so are relative to the overall level of run scoring during that era.
Name GAOpps EqGAR Len Randle 54 1.6 George Brett 39 1.5 Rick Manning 22 1.4 Hal McRae 35 1.3 Ted Sizemore 42 1.2 Gary Matthews 31 1.1 Rob Picciolo 21 1.1 John Scott 22 1.0 Ken Griffey 32 1.0 Lee Mazzilli 44 1.0 Thad Bosley 23 0.9 Wayne Garrett 14 0.9 Carlos Lopez 12 0.8 Dan Ford 29 0.8 Sandy Alomar 16 0.8 ----------------------------- Steve Kemp 26 -1.1 Mike Schmidt 14 -1.1 Andres Mora 13 -1.1 Andy Thornton 34 -1.2 Ruppert Jones 39 -1.2 Joe Zdeb 15 -1.3 Dan Meyer 34 -1.3 Lou Brock 30 -1.3 Reggie Jackson 36 -1.3 Cesar Geronimo 28 -1.3 Lyman Bostock 55 -1.4 John Milner 23 -1.4 Jason Thompson 33 -1.4 Dave Kingman 21 -1.4 Pete Rose 53 -2.4
In the category of how changing scenery can work wonders, Len Randle takes our top spot at +1.6 runs. You may recall that Randle was suspended for 30 days after punching out Rangers manager Frank Lucchesi before a spring training game as a reaction to having learned that Bump Wills had won the starting second base job. Lucchesi spent some time in the hospital, and Randle was dealt to the Mets. Ted Sizemore is something of a surprise to me on this list, since I remembered him as more of a plodder. It’s also nice to see Rob Picciolo in the midst of a historically bad season have at least something positive to show for his efforts.
On the flip side, a 36-year-old Pete Rose lost 2.4 runs, and 38-year-old Lou Brock 1.3 runs, while the slow-footed Dave Kingman and Jason Thompson provide no surprises in turning up here.
Next, we’ll move on to runner’s contributions on stolen base attempts and pickoffs:
Name SBOpps EqSBR Larry Bowa 30 4.3 Cesar Cedeno 78 4.2 Mitchell Page 52 3.4 Frank Taveras 93 3.0 Gene Richards 74 2.7 Freddie Patek 69 2.3 Miguel Dilone 12 1.9 Joe Morgan 59 1.8 Terry Puhl 11 1.5 Omar Moreno 72 1.3 Chris Chambliss 4 1.2 Toby Harrah 33 1.1 Dave Concepcion 37 1.0 Amos Otis 30 0.9 Jerry Turner 17 0.9 ----------------------------- Mickey Rivers 38 -3.8 Buddy Bell 12 -3.9 Jim Norris 43 -3.9 Len Randle 55 -4.1 Jim Wohlford 35 -4.2 Hal McRae 36 -4.2 Mike Vail 9 -4.6 Juan Beniquez 44 -4.7 Enos Cabell 69 -5.1 Garry Templeton 54 -6.3 Derrell Thomas 31 -6.3 Dave Parker 36 -6.5 Bert Campaneris 53 -6.7 Al Oliver 31 -7.2 Jose Cruz 70 -8.4
Larry Bowa takes the top spot at +4.3 runs on the strength of stealing 27 of 30 bases when he was the lead runner, including a steal of home and seven steals of third. Cesar Cedeno stole 63 times in 78 attempts, although six of the times he was caught were at third, costing him over three runs. With just 12 attempts, future one-hit-wonder Miguel Dilone racked up +1.9 runs by never getting caught. Likewise, Chris Chambliss contributed +1.2 runs by stealing four bases, including stealing home twice.
The trailers here are interesting, because their damage done so heavily outweighs the contributions of the players at the top of the list. Jose Cruz of the Astros had 40 stolen bases, but was put out 30 times-including being picked off an amazing seven times-contributing to his negative 8.4 runs. Likewise, the other runners on this list all had poor stolen base percentages, and in retrospect should have been given the stop sign much more frequently. Incidentally, the Mets’ Mike Vail was a perfect 0-for-9 (including two pickoffs), no doubt finding himself on the short end of a few hit-and-run plays.
But this list points to the fact that at the time sabermetric knowledge was in its infancy, with Bill James’ first self-published Baseball Abstract making its debut the same year. Not all managers or players were aware of the costs of allowing Gary Templeton and Enos Cabell run with abandon, leaving a trail of broken innings in their wake. As a result, stolen base percentages were relatively low, just 62.9 percent overall. When noting the general rule that a 67-70 percent success rate is required to break even (yes, it varies by the base/out situation, and that’s taken into account by EqSBR), you can see how teams left a lot of runs on the field. In fact, the aggregate EqSBR for the majors stood at a staggering -418 runs for the 1977 season, or over -16 runs per team. The Reds were the best team in baseball at -7.2 runs, while the Indians lost over 27 runs and the Cardinals over 25 with their basepath mayhem. In their 397 opportunities, the Pirates cost themselves 20 runs. With rising stolen base rates over time, the cost of stealing overall has shrunk to where the strategy cost teams just a total of 62 runs in 2007:
The reason for the steady increase in stolen base percentage is another matter, but one could speculate about an increased awareness of the costs and benefits, while improvements in the game in terms of technique and perhaps athleticism have almost certainly been contributing factors.
Next, we’ll take a look at advancing on fly balls (EqAAR). It should be noted that this metric uses park factors calculated just for 1977 for each of the three outfield positions for each of the 26 parks.
Name AAOpps EqAAR Fred Lynn 27 2.3 Tito Fuentes 45 2.0 George Scott 28 1.7 Jim Rice 34 1.5 Denny Doyle 28 1.5 Joe Morgan 25 1.4 Chris Chambliss 36 1.4 Frank White 22 1.3 Bobby Murcer 34 1.3 Phil Garner 33 1.3 Gene Clines 15 1.3 Greg Luzinski 26 1.3 Rick Burleson 55 1.2 Lou Piniella 13 1.2 Jim Spencer 21 1.1 ----------------------------- Pat Kelly 24 -1.7 Willie McCovey 19 -1.9 Willie Horton 30 -1.9 Bob Bailor 29 -1.9 Fred Kendall 8 -2.0 Jose Cardenal 12 -2.0 Dan Driessen 20 -2.0 Gene Richards 32 -2.1 Don Money 39 -2.1 Chris Speier 28 -2.1 Bob Watson 20 -2.3 Davey Lopes 35 -2.5 Ron LeFlore 34 -2.6 Doug Ault 15 -2.7 Darrell Porter 27 -2.9
Fred Lynn takes the top spot at +2.3 runs because he advanced on 13 of his 27 opportunities and was never thrown out. George Scott (+1.7) and Greg Luzinski (+1.3) are surprises, but Scott scored six times and advanced to third or second six other times in his 28 opportunities, and was only thrown out once. On the other side of the coin, the Royals’ Darrell Porter was thrown out three times and scored just four times in 27 chances. Although you might think that faster runners like Ron LeFlore and Davey Lopes may have scored poorly by taking extra chances, in fact LeFlore was thrown out just once, but failed to advance on 26 of his 34 chances; Lopes was not thrown out and failed to advance in 27 of his 35 opportunities.
Next, it’s on to advancing on hits (EqHAR) which uses the same park factors as EqAAR.
Name HAOpps EqHAR George Brett 43 5.1 Toby Harrah 46 4.9 Rod Carew 58 4.4 Ivan DeJesus 75 4.3 Lee Mazzilli 38 3.7 Phil Garner 56 3.7 Bob Bailor 32 2.9 Jerry Mumphrey 37 2.8 Len Randle 51 2.6 Davey Lopes 48 2.6 Denny Doyle 26 2.6 Dan Driessen 34 2.6 Ken Griffey 57 2.5 Chet Lemon 52 2.4 Steve Dillard 19 2.4 ----------------------------- Jim Norris 44 -2.4 Steve Kemp 36 -2.4 Bake McBride 35 -2.4 Andy Etchebarre 13 -2.5 Joe Morgan 31 -2.6 Dave Collins 20 -2.6 Darrell Evans 27 -2.6 Willie McCovey 26 -2.7 Ray Fosse 23 -2.8 John Mayberry 37 -2.9 Thurman Munson 46 -3.1 Bob Boone 51 -3.1 Dan Meyer 32 -3.8 Butch Wynegar 46 -4.0 Hector Torres 24 -5.3
So, a 24-year-old George Brett led the league advancing on hits, with the underrated Toby Harrah in second at +4.9 runs. Once again, Len Randle (+2.6) makes an appearance, as does DeJesus, my boyhood hero, at +4.3 runs. The biggest surprise to me here was probably Dan Driessen, who I hadn’t considered much of a baserunner. However, in 1977 he was just 25 years old and stole 31 bases in 44 attempts, and overall came in at -0.6 runs.
Hector Torres-playing in his final season at the age of 31 for the expansion Blue Jays-was thrown out advancing five times in 24 chances, with the result that it cost his team 5.3 runs. Butch Wynegar (-4.0), Dan Meyer (-3.8), Thurman Munson (-3.1), Pete Rose (-0.9), and Jim Norris (-2.4) were all thrown out four times. The fact that Joe Morgan (-2.6) and Dave Collins (-2.6) make the list is unexpected, although Morgan was thrown out three times, and Collins twice.
As with EqSBR, in this metric it’s interesting to note the historical trend:
This graph shows that the percentage of times runners advance to third or home on a single by the batter has decreased from over 30 percent in the 1970s and early 1980s to around 27 percent in 2007. While at first this might seem to be something of a paradox, given that stolen base percentages are on the rise, the two apparently opposite trends are connected. Just as managers, coaches, and players are now more aware of the costs of attempting stolen bases, they may also be taking a more conservative approach to taking extra bases. In 1977 runners were thrown out 292 times–or over 11 times per team–while in 2007 runners were gunned down 257 times, or 8.5 per team. In addition, better defensive play and smaller ballparks may be contributing to the decreased risk-taking.
Finally, in the last of the five metrics we’ll look at the leaders and trailers in advancing on balks, passed balls, and wild pitches (EqOAR):
Name OAOpps EqOAR Rod Carew 556 3.8 Joe Morgan 465 3.1 Roy Howell 292 2.3 Len Randle 542 2.2 Jim Sundberg 430 1.9 Thurman Munson 412 1.8 Gene Richards 559 1.8 Hal McRae 556 1.7 Jerry Mumphrey 387 1.7 Julio Gonzalez 287 1.6 Bobby Bonds 387 1.6 Frank Taveras 449 1.6 Davey Lopes 556 1.6 Garry Templeton 463 1.6 Vic Harris 151 1.6 ----------------------------- Toby Harrah 497 -0.9 Craig Reynolds 319 -0.9 Tito Fuentes 506 -1.0 Cecil Cooper 445 -1.1 Jerry Morales 399 -1.1 Graig Nettles 413 -1.1 Steve Garvey 413 -1.1 Rusty Staub 417 -1.2 Al Bumbry 488 -1.2 Rico Carty 301 -1.3 Mark Belanger 312 -1.3 Pete Rose 646 -1.4 Dave May 250 -1.4 Bob Boone 336 -1.5 Jim Norris 434 -1.5
Rod Carew takes the top spot with a hefty +3.8 runs by advancing 17 times, amazingly rattling pitchers enough to score six times on balks and five times on wild pitches. Joe Morgan advanced 16 times scoring six times. Bob Boone and Jim Norris, on the other hand, tried to advance five and four times, and were thrown out twice and once, respectively.
To cap it off, we’ll close with the overall leaders and trailers for the summer of 1977.
Name GAOpps EqGAR SBOpps EqSBR AAOpps EqAAR HAOpps EqHAR OAOpps EqOAR EqRuns Larry Bowa 22 -0.4 30 4.3 38 1.0 42 1.1 467 0.8 6.8 Phil Garner 34 0.7 42 0.0 33 1.3 56 3.7 482 0.4 6.1 Toby Harrah 38 -0.3 33 1.1 31 0.7 46 4.9 497 -0.9 5.5 Cesar Cedeno 21 0.2 78 4.2 27 0.7 23 0.2 469 0.0 5.2 Rod Carew 29 -0.6 35 -2.7 31 0.1 58 4.4 556 3.8 4.9 George Brett 39 1.5 26 -3.3 25 0.9 43 5.1 450 0.1 4.3 Mitchell Page 33 -1.0 52 3.4 28 0.4 34 1.3 483 0.2 4.2 Joe Morgan 21 -0.2 59 1.8 25 1.4 31 -2.6 465 3.1 3.4 Vic Harris 14 0.1 3 -0.3 9 0.1 12 1.9 151 1.6 3.4 Gene Richards 52 0.6 74 2.7 32 -2.1 40 0.2 559 1.8 3.1 Ken Griffey 32 1.0 24 -1.7 48 0.0 57 2.5 587 1.3 3.1 Carl Yastrzemsk 30 -1.0 13 0.5 22 1.0 26 1.7 416 0.8 3.0 Denny Doyle 30 0.1 6 -1.2 28 1.5 26 2.6 335 -0.1 2.9 Fred Lynn 14 0.0 5 -0.6 27 2.3 30 1.1 336 -0.1 2.8 Frank Taveras 38 -1.0 93 3.0 18 -0.1 31 -0.7 449 1.6 2.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Willie Horton 25 -1.0 5 -1.1 30 -1.9 36 -0.6 367 -0.6 -5.3 Steve Kemp 26 -1.1 6 -0.3 30 -1.1 36 -2.4 387 -0.5 -5.3 Enos Cabell 29 0.6 69 -5.1 36 -0.8 30 -0.6 451 0.3 -5.6 Ray Fosse 14 0.4 6 -2.8 10 0.2 23 -2.8 181 -0.6 -5.6 Ron LeFlore 62 0.0 62 -2.4 34 -2.6 45 -1.2 614 0.5 -5.7 Hector Torres 20 -0.2 2 -0.3 6 -0.1 24 -5.3 198 -0.1 -6.1 Darrell Evans 20 -0.3 17 -1.9 20 -0.6 27 -2.6 321 -0.7 -6.1 Doug Ault 29 -0.5 8 -2.2 15 -2.7 18 -1.8 270 0.2 -7.0 Bob Boone 20 -0.5 11 -2.0 22 -0.1 51 -3.1 336 -1.5 -7.2 Derrell Thomas 33 -0.7 31 -6.3 38 -0.8 39 0.8 449 -0.5 -7.5 Dan Meyer 34 -1.3 20 -2.0 23 -1.6 32 -3.8 386 0.7 -8.0 Jim Norris 34 -0.4 43 -3.9 25 -0.1 44 -2.4 434 -1.5 -8.4 Dave Parker 32 -0.7 36 -6.5 33 -1.2 58 0.7 519 -0.8 -8.5 Al Oliver 42 -0.5 31 -7.2 29 -0.1 45 -0.4 464 -0.8 -9.0 Jose Cruz 21 -0.3 70 -8.4 24 0.3 32 -1.4 468 0.3 -9.5
Larry Bowa, whodathunkit? He turns out to be the overall leader (+6.8), powered by his strong showing in EqSBR, while Phil Garner (+6.1), Toby Harrah (+5.5), Cesar Cedeno (+5.2), and Rod Carew (+4.9) round out the top five. Aside from Bob Boone (-7.2), Dan Meyer (-8.0), Darrell Evans (-6.1), and Hector Torres (-6.1), the bottom fifteen are dominated by those who did poorly in EqSBR, with Jose Cruz (-9.5) costing his team a full win on the bases, all by himself.
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