“Baseball is Darwinian in its results but Newtonian in its processes. With rigorous empiricism fielders built up a solid foundation of knowledge through generations of trials and thousands of errors. Their peer-reviewed results quickly became standard operating procedures.”
–Cait Murphy, describing the evolution of defensive play in Crazy ’08: How a Cast of Cranks, Rogues, Boneheads, and Magnates Created the Greatest Year in Baseball History
—
Over the last couple of months, we’ve been playing around with measuring the efficacy of those “standard operating procedures” by using Retrosheet-style play by play codes, i.e. rather coarse records of each play, including hit type (line drive, groundball, fly ball, or popup) and the fielder who picked up the ball, but not batted ball location information. Because this method doesn’t use the most fine-grained data in existence, I’ve dubbed the system Simple Fielding Runs, or SFR for short. The system for infielders has gone through a couple of major revisions that have been fully discussed here, while the system for outfielders has also been revised from the ground up.
This week, we won’t be delving deeply into the methodology and making tweaks at the lowest levels of the system. After the results from last week, while we might still consider just why right fielders like Brian Giles and Juan Encarnacion show such large differences between SFR and UZR (but thank you to the readers who offered observational evidence of both), I’m pretty satisfied that the system works well enough to be useful. So this week I haven’t made any significant changes to the code.
Of course, at this point I’ve calculated data from five seasons (2003-2007) for major leaguers, and since the outfield system is heavily dependent on the inherent park effects that are captured by comparing how a particular fielder performed in a particular park to how all other fielders did (inspired by an approach from a reputable source), adding more data in the future will tend to smooth out the results. That said, I do want to break down the components of the outfield SFR system a little, look at a rate statistic, evaluate team totals, and combine SFR with throwing before putting a bow on top of this confection and finally giving you all the numbers.
Break it Down
If you’ve been following the series on this topic, you’ll know that SFR breaks down a fielder’s performance on batted balls by hit type and batter handedness. Although we haven’t shown it in the past, this means that a fielder’s total SFR can be sliced by these dimensions. For example, when looking at Grady Sizemore‘s +16.9 SFR rating (denominated in runs) in center field for the Indians in 2007, we see that on fly balls he was +20.4, on line drives he was -2.7, and on groundballs he was -0.8. This is contrasted with the Royals‘ David DeJesus, who graded out at +13.8 runs, but with a fly-ball rate of +6.3, line-drive rate at +8.7, and ground-ball rate at -0.8. To some extent it is likely that these differences reflect differences in positioning and/or the ability to cut off line drives and groundballs in the gaps, and also to a lesser extent the factors we haven’t controlled for, including base/out situation, score, and plain old randomness. In this case, it could indicate that DeJesus plays a bit shallower than Sizemore, and hence catches more line drives that would otherwise go for hits but gives up more fly ball hits to deep center or the alleys in the process. So, let’s look at our leaders and trailers in each of the three hit types by position in 2007:
Table 1: Leaders in Fly Ball SFR for 2007 Fly Balls Line Drives Groundballs Total Name Field AdjG Balls SFR Balls SFR Balls SFR Balls SFR Coco Crisp Center 135.3 422 26.4 199 13.4 88 -0.5 709 39.2 Grady Sizemore Center 157.1 415 20.4 222 -2.7 154 -0.8 791 16.9 Carlos Beltran Center 138.2 399 19.0 212 3.3 97 -1.0 708 21.4 Matt Holliday Left 154.3 278 12.9 258 12.1 127 1.3 663 26.3 Luke Scott Right 91.3 188 11.7 131 6.6 69 -0.8 388 17.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- M. Cuddyer Right 136.3 306 -12.4 169 3.4 93 0.3 568 -8.7 Chris Duncan Left 83.3 177 -13.3 162 -6.0 62 0.0 401 -19.3 Ryan Freel Center 49.6 153 -13.5 85 3.9 43 -0.3 281 -9.9 Raul Ibanez Left 123.9 225 -13.8 238 -2.1 108 -0.8 571 -16.7 Pat Burrell Left 114.7 198 -16.7 173 -0.1 97 0.8 468 -16.0
Table 2: Leaders in Line Drive SFR for 2007 Fly Balls Line Drives Groundballs Total Name Field AdjG Balls SFR Balls SFR Balls SFR Balls SFR Austin Kearns Right 153.6 360 1.3 248 13.7 109 0.8 717 15.7 Coco Crisp Center 135.3 422 26.4 199 13.4 88 -0.5 709 39.2 Matt Holliday Left 154.3 278 12.9 258 12.1 127 1.3 663 26.3 Jeremy Hermida Right 109.8 237 7.7 186 9.2 82 1.4 505 18.3 David DeJesus Center 150.8 411 6.3 239 8.7 107 -1.2 757 13.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ken Griffey Jr.Right 129.8 296 -0.7 226 -9.1 93 1.7 615 -8.1 Brian Giles Right 118.3 242 -12.1 159 -9.3 71 -0.8 472 -22.1 Trot Nixon Right 75.3 145 -4.3 98 -9.4 45 0.3 288 -13.5 Jason Bay Left 138.0 285 0.7 282 -11.7 115 1.4 682 -9.6 Mark Teahen Right 128.6 350 -6.5 237 -12.8 84 -1.5 671 -20.8
Interestingly, Austin Kearns sees almost his entire positive rating generated by his +13.7 in line-drive SFR. It should be noted that Baseball Info Solution’s Plus/Minus system likes Kearns as well, and had him at +18, good enough for him to rank second overall in right field.
Table 3: Leaders in Ground Ball SFR for 2007 Fly Balls Line Drives Groundballs Total Name Field AdjG Balls SFR Balls SFR Balls SFR Balls SFR Alexis Rios Right 139.7 238 0.9 217 2.0 92 2.6 547 5.5 Barry Bonds Left 93.6 174 -5.6 142 -5.9 53 2.2 369 -9.4 Scott Hairston Left 62.8 110 -1.9 108 2.8 46 1.8 264 2.8 Andre Ethier Right 87.2 180 3.1 127 3.5 75 1.8 382 8.4 J.D. Drew Right 118.1 212 -1.0 149 6.3 65 1.8 426 7.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jack Cust Right 42.4 82 0.6 73 -7.6 35 -3.0 190 -9.9 Bobby Abreu Right 148.7 327 -7.5 225 -1.6 79 -3.4 631 -12.6 Jeff Francoeur Right 160.7 362 10.1 189 -1.2 103 -3.6 654 5.2 Carlos Lee Left 152.6 283 -2.3 240 -0.3 137 -4.7 660 -7.3 Delmon Young Right 126.6 267 -6.6 197 4.2 76 -5.0 540 -7.3
Since Alex Rios drifts up to the top of the list, one’s first inclination might be that a fielder’s throwing arm is a factor in the ground-ball component of SFR. After all, almost all groundballs fielded by outfielders are hits, so any difference in the total number of bases taken by the batter from what’s expected is due to the fielder’s ability to stop the batter from stretching hits. Clearly, a component of an outfielder’s ability to prevent advancement by the batter is the reputation of his throwing arm, and to a lesser extent his actual outfield kills. In Rios was have an outfielder who ranked fourth in baseball in theoretical runs contributed with his arm (a park-adjusted metric derived from the baserunning framework I developed and described in detail in an essay in Baseball Prospectus 2008), at +9.1 runs. However, while throwing arm is clearly a component and will therefore overlap to some extent, it appears that it is the smaller factor, as Jeff Francoeur and Delmon Young, both of whom rank in the top five in throwing as well, nevertheless find themselves in the bottom half of Table 3.
The One Rate to Rule Them All
As mentioned above, we haven’t yet discussed a rate statistic in SFR terms. To correct for that omission, we can calculate a simple rate per 650 balls fielded (roughly the average for an outfielder who plays 162 adjusted games). The leaders and trailers for 2007 by position for those players who fielded 150 or more balls are shown here:
Table 4: Center Field Leaders and Trailers for 2007 in SFR Rate Name POS AdjG Balls SFR SFR/650 Felix Pie Center 47.3 198 12.2 40.1 Covelli Crisp Center 135.3 709 39.2 36.0 Alfredo Amezaga Center 71.8 381 12.2 20.8 Johnny Damon Center 42.0 228 7.2 20.5 Carlos Beltran Center 138.2 708 21.4 19.6 ------------------------------------------------------- Marlon Byrd Center 55.3 254 -6.0 -15.4 Billy Hall Center 114.4 592 -14.1 -15.5 Ryan Freel Center 49.6 281 -9.9 -22.9 Nick Swisher Center 53.4 295 -12.4 -27.2 Tike Redman Center 25.7 161 -8.5 -34.1
For the Cubs, Felix Pie is certainly ready to take up the reins defensively; it just remains to be seen how well he’ll adjust at the plate. In fact, Pie’s 40.1 rate was second only to Terrence Long‘s 2004 rate of 40.6 for all outfielders since 2003. Meanwhile, on the other side of town, one wonders whether a full season of Nick Swisher in center is such a good idea for the Sox, especially when contrasted with his encouraging right field numbers:
Table 5: Left Field Leaders and Trailers for 2007 in SFR Rate Name POS AdjG Balls SFR SFR/650 Matt Holliday Left 154.3 663 26.3 25.8 Andre Ethier Left 34.1 161 6.3 25.3 Jason Tyner Left 34.7 170 6.2 23.8 Eric Byrnes Left 108.4 460 16.4 23.2 Reggie Willits Left 57.1 296 10.4 22.8 Ryan Ludwick Left 36.3 173 5.4 20.2 ------------------------------------------------------ Kevin Mench Left 42.2 157 -4.3 -18.0 Raul Ibanez Left 123.9 571 -16.7 -19.0 Pat Burrell Left 114.7 468 -16.0 -22.2 Moises Alou Left 78.3 336 -13.0 -25.1 Chris Duncan Left 83.3 401 -19.3 -31.3
The MVP-less Matt Holliday dominates in left field, while no one could argue that any of the bottom five are being unfairly treated.
Table 6: Right Field Leaders and Trailers for 2007 in SFR Rate Name POS AdjG Balls SFR SFR/650 Luke Scott Right 91.3 388 17.6 29.4 Jeremy Hermida Right 109.8 505 18.3 23.6 Carlos Quentin Right 64.4 270 9.8 23.6 Vladimir Guerrero Right 103.6 414 13.8 21.6 Nick Swisher Right 46.1 193 6.4 21.6 Andre Ethier Right 87.2 382 8.4 14.3 ------------------------------------------------------ Joe Borchard Right 31.0 164 -6.3 -24.8 Juan Encarnacion Right 68.7 288 -12.3 -27.8 Trot Nixon Right 75.3 288 -13.5 -30.4 Brian Giles Right 118.3 472 -22.1 -30.4 Jack Cust Right 42.4 190 -9.9 -33.8
Another new White Sox outfielder, Carlos Quentin, does pretty well here. Vladimir Guerrero is among the usual suspects, while Encarnacion and Giles battle it out with Trot Nixon and TTO superstar Jack Cust in the second division.
In terms of rate across seasons (2003-2007, and 1,000 or more balls fielded) the leader by a large margin is Jose Cruz Jr. at +27.8 in right field, that after his fielding 1,613 balls. In center field the leader is Sizemore at +19, while in left field Reed Johnson (+18) takes the top spot. On the flip side Ken Griffey Jr. is far and away the worst–not only in center, but at all positions–at -32.8, while Raul Ibanez just beats Manny Ramirez, -13.5 to -13.0. Our old friend Juan Encarnacion brings up the rear in right field (-12.9). The rest of the top and bottom ten are shown in Table 7:
Table 7: Best and Worst in Terms of Rate, 2003-2007 and >= 1,000 Balls Fielded Name Pos SFR Balls SFR/650 Jose Cruz Jr. Right 69.1 1613 27.8 Grady Sizemore Center 73.1 2497 19.0 Reed Johnson Left 31.5 1138 18.0 Nook Logan Center 33.5 1291 16.9 Garret Anderson Left 41.8 1760 15.4 Alfonso Soriano Left 28.9 1221 15.4 Eric Byrnes Left 28.2 1376 13.3 Ichiro Suzuki Right 52.8 2588 13.3 Covelli Crisp Center 38.6 1929 13.0 Carl Crawford Left 63.2 3160 13.0 ----------------------------------------------- Brian Giles Right -39.1 2441 -10.4 Pat Burrell Left -40.8 2542 -10.4 Hideki Matsui Left -38.7 2367 -10.6 Moises Alou Left -29.8 1692 -11.5 Juan Encarnacion Right -47.8 2415 -12.9 Manny Ramirez Left -50.9 2541 -13.0 Raul Ibanez Left -52.2 2506 -13.5 Bernie Williams Center -34.8 1628 -13.9 Marquis Grissom Center -35.4 1514 -15.2 Ken Griffey Jr. Center -83.4 1653 -32.8
Tag Team
For the third of our four vignettes this week, let’s take a quick look at how SFR rates the teams in terms of their outfield defense. To make things interesting we’ll put up the outfield totals for the Plus/Minus system (released by THT) as well as those for the infield, which we showed a few weeks back.
Table 8: SFR vs Plus/Minus for 2007 Infield Outfield Total Team SFR P/M SFR P/M SFR P/M BOS 30 17 51 -31 81 -14 WAS -11 -41 33 45 22 4 COL 44 30 28 -33 72 -3 ARI 5 1 26 53 31 54 CHN 14 16 24 20 38 36 FLO -64 -98 24 10 -40 -88 NYN 11 26 21 47 33 73 TEX 0 -23 18 21 19 -2 TOR 47 81 17 11 64 92 ANA 1 35 14 -47 15 -12 DET -10 29 11 16 1 45 CLE -16 -4 3 12 -13 8 NYA -6 -3 2 -34 -4 -37 CHA -28 -53 -1 -23 -29 -76 KCA 11 49 -3 17 8 66 LAN -13 -28 -3 13 -17 -15 CIN -26 -22 -4 -37 -31 -59 MIL -49 -46 -5 44 -54 -2 PIT -22 14 -6 -28 -28 -14 ATL 12 -1 -7 69 5 68 BAL 12 -2 -12 -12 0 -14 HOU -18 12 -12 -29 -30 -17 MIN 5 30 -17 -36 -11 -6 PHI 11 23 -20 -4 -9 19 TBA -43 -68 -23 -39 -66 -107 SDN 38 -6 -23 30 15 24 OAK 30 22 -26 3 4 25 SFN 37 47 -36 -31 1 16 SEA -17 -25 -37 -24 -54 -49 SLN 13 41 -40 -5 -27 36
You’ll notice I’ve sorted the table by outfield SFR, and as you can tell the two systems, while agreeing to a large degree in the infield (correlation coefficient of 0.79), do not match nearly so well in the outfield (correlation coefficient of 0.25). Graphically, the match on outfield defense looks like this:
Figure 1: SFR vs. Plus/Minus in the Outfield for 2007
There are obviously some real outliers here. In particular, there’s Atlanta, which Plus/Minus had as the best team in baseball but which SFR shows as slightly below average, but there’s also both Boston and Colorado, which Plus/Minus rated very poorly, and whom SFR liked. It should be noted that Plus/Minus does not include any park effects, and the placement of two teams with relatively extreme parks makes one wonder what effect that has on the results. Even so, there also many teams (Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Houston, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, Toronto, Texas, Chicago (NL), Florida, New York (NL), Arizona, and Washington) that the two systems substantially agree upon.
In any case, from an overall perspective, SFR likes the Red Sox (+81), Rockies (+72), and Blue Jays (+64) when infield and outfield are combined, while Tampa Bay (-66), Seattle (-54), and Milwaukee (-54) bring up the rear.
Throwing in the Towel
In our final section today, we’ll finally and officially answer the question we set out to answer when we began this journey back in December. At that time, spurred on by a question about new Twins outfielder Delmon Young, we were looking for a simple measure of total outfield defense. So now we can combine version 1.0 of the outfield SFR with the throwing metric to come up with a total defensive measure, calculated in terms of theoretical runs above or below what an average fielder would have produced (yes, as mentioned previously here is overlap between the two and no, it was not corrected for and so an exceptional thrower will likely receive a little boost). So without further ado, here are the 2007 leaderboards in total defense:
Table 9: Center Field Total Defense, 2007 Total Throwing Name AdjG Balls SFR OA Opps Thr Total Coco Crisp 135.3 709 39.2 7 529 -1.2 38.1 Carlos Beltran 138.2 708 21.4 6 560 -0.6 20.8 Alfredo Amezaga 71.8 381 12.2 8 338 3.4 15.6 Felix Pie 47.3 198 12.2 1 135 0.4 12.6 Grady Sizemore 157.1 791 16.9 3 704 -4.6 12.3 Jacque Jones 72.1 351 5.9 8 266 4.3 10.2 Nyjer Morgan 24.7 148 8.7 3 131 1.5 10.2 Nook Logan 84.4 444 13.0 2 365 -2.8 10.2 David DeJesus 150.8 757 13.8 5 646 -4.8 9.0 Melky Cabrera 119.7 680 8.3 14 638 0.7 9.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Ryan Freel 49.6 281 -9.9 3 264 2.1 -7.8 Aaron Rowand 153.1 778 -9.7 11 689 0.6 -9.1 Tike Redman 25.7 161 -8.5 1 150 -0.8 -9.2 Torii Hunter 146.4 777 -7.0 5 657 -2.6 -9.6 Hunter Pence 94.1 493 -9.6 6 419 -0.2 -9.8 Billy Hall 114.4 592 -14.1 5 535 3.0 -11.1 Mike Cameron 148.0 742 -9.3 8 648 -2.2 -11.5 Chris B. Young 140.7 729 -11.0 7 639 -0.8 -11.8 Juan Pierre 157.9 747 -6.5 4 669 -7.2 -13.7 Nick Swisher 53.4 295 -12.4 1 294 -2.0 -14.4
Despite the poor arm ratings for Crisp, Sizemore, Nook Logan, and DeJesus, all of them make the top ten, although Alfredo Amezaga, Jacque Jones, and Nyjer Morgan are clearly aided by their throwing. As expected, Juan Pierre sinks considerably once account for his lackluster throwing.
Table 10: Left Field Total Defense, 2007 Total Throwing Name AdjG Balls SFR OA Opps Thr Total Matt Holliday 154.3 663 26.3 7 630 1.5 27.8 Alfonso Soriano 118.7 546 8.9 19 531 12.6 21.5 Eric Byrnes 108.4 460 16.4 8 392 -0.8 15.6 Jason Botts 23.6 104 11.7 2 98 1.6 13.3 Ryan Church 80.3 401 10.6 3 374 -1.0 9.6 Norris Hopper 12.9 76 7.0 1 79 1.6 8.6 Reggie Willits 57.1 296 10.4 2 274 -2.5 7.9 Garret Anderson 80.6 332 5.3 7 333 2.6 7.8 Jason Tyner 34.7 170 6.2 2 147 1.2 7.4 Carlos Gomez 20.0 81 6.2 2 70 0.7 7.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Josh Willingham 131.6 558 -9.6 9 614 1.5 -8.1 Jason Bay 138.0 682 -9.6 13 746 0.8 -8.8 Manny Ramirez 110.8 463 -10.5 8 458 0.4 -10.1 Moises Alou 78.3 336 -13.0 7 334 0.6 -12.4 Barry Bonds 93.6 369 -9.4 2 336 -3.4 -12.8 Luis Gonzalez 111.0 462 -10.8 4 451 -3.1 -13.9 Adam Dunn 132.6 604 -9.9 4 594 -5.3 -15.2 Pat Burrell 114.7 468 -16.0 8 496 0.8 -15.2 Raul Ibanez 123.9 571 -16.7 9 608 1.2 -15.5 Chris Duncan 83.3 401 -19.3 5 430 1.7 -17.6
On the back of his 19 assists, Soriano challenges but still can’t surpass Holliday, while Garrett Anderson also moves up considerably.
Table 11: Right Field Total Defense, 2007 Total Throwing Name AdjG Balls SFR OA Opps Thr Total Jeremy Hermida 109.8 505 18.3 7 481 0.4 18.8 Jeff Francoeur 160.7 654 5.2 19 605 13.1 18.3 Luke Scott 91.3 388 17.6 8 351 -0.3 17.3 Austin Kearns 153.6 717 15.7 9 660 0.3 16.1 Alexis Rios 139.7 547 5.5 10 551 9.1 14.6 Vladimir Guerrero 103.6 414 13.8 6 392 -0.6 13.1 Carlos Quentin 64.4 270 9.8 2 237 0.6 10.4 Shane Victorino 102.6 461 1.0 10 443 8.0 9.0 Gabe Gross 32.4 137 7.0 2 127 1.5 8.6 J.D. Drew 118.1 426 7.1 4 382 1.3 8.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lance Berkman 25.7 110 -6.9 1 104 -3.0 -10.0 Bobby Abreu 148.7 631 -12.6 6 582 1.0 -11.6 Jermaine Dye 128.8 603 -7.4 9 595 -5.1 -12.6 Shawn Green 102.4 406 -8.5 2 345 -4.3 -12.7 Jack Cust 42.4 190 -9.9 1 185 -3.0 -12.9 Mark Teahen 128.6 671 -20.8 16 628 6.7 -14.0 Juan Encarnacion 68.7 288 -12.3 2 286 -2.4 -14.7 Trot Nixon 75.3 288 -13.5 4 279 -1.4 -14.8 Ken Griffey Jr. 129.8 615 -8.1 4 564 -8.6 -16.7 Brian Giles 118.3 472 -22.1 2 444 -7.9 -30.0
Jeff Francoeur leads right fielders in throwing but still finishes second to Jeremy Hermida overall, while Rios and Shane Victorino make a push into the top ten. On the bottom half of Table 11 there is little to like, as only Mark Teahen and Bobby Abreu do themselves any favors with their arms.
To wrap up, we can take one final step. Just as we calculated a rate statistic for SFR which incorporates range, sure-handedness, and positioning, we can also create one for throwing calculated as runs per 550 opportunities. Using those two data points we can now draw some plots (you didn’t really think you’d get away without some graphs did you?) and place each outfielder in one of four quadrants, rating both his pure fielding performance and his throwing. This is shown in figures two through four for fielders with 150 or more balls fielded in 2007. Those in the upper right quadrant are both good fielders and throwers (Alfredo Amezaga, Alex Rios). Moving clockwise we see good throwers but poor fielders (Michael Cuddyer, Mark Teahen), poor throwers and poor fielders (Juan Pierre, Jack Cust), and finally ending with good fielders but poor throwers in the upper left (Johnny Damon, Nook Logan).
Figure 2: Center Field Defensive Ratings 2007
Figure 3: Left Field Defensive Ratings 2007
Figure 4: Right Field Defensive Ratings 2007
Come and Get It
As a reward for your patience, and also as a way of saying thank you for all the suggestions and feedback in developing the system, you can now download a spreadsheet with all the major league data from 2003 through 2007 in separate tabs. In this file you’ll find not only the outfield SFR data broken down by hit type (as shown above), you’ll also see the throwing ratings, the rate statistics, and the total defensive metric. But you will have to create your own charts.
Thank you for reading
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