When you have to win four games-and can lose just three-there’s no time to waste. Game One of a best-of-seven takes on added significance, because teams usually have their best starting pitcher on the mound, for one, and because there are tactical and strategic advantages to having that one-game lead. Winning the first game of a World Series is a strong indicator of future success. The last five World Series have been won by the Game One victor, and all-time, the winner of the first game is 63-40 in the Series.
Whatever history dictates, increase it for the Phillies. Their chance to beat the Rays over seven games may come down to whether they beat them in one: Game One. Tonight’s game, and next Monday’s scheduled rematch, are the only two games in which the Phillies will have the better starter on the mound. The gap between Hamels and the rest of their rotation is wide, especially given the Rays’ problems with left-handed starters. Hamels saved 85 runs as compared to a replacement-level pitcher; Jamie Moyer saved 66, and Brett Myers, 50. He was worth 7.9 wins above replacement, where Moyer and Myers were worth 9.1-combined.
The game plan for the Phillies is fairly simple: win both of Hamel’s starts and steal two other games. I’m not sure-no, let me make this stronger-the Phillies cannot win the World Series unless they win tonight’s game. The only time they even might have the better starting lineup is when Hamels pitches.
Given the importance of Hamels to the Phillies, his superiority over their other options, and the importance of the games, wouldn’t it make sense to treat Hamels like the ace he is and get him three starts in the World Series? We’ve taken to regarding this kind of usage as unusual, or even abusive, but that’s another example of how we’ve gone too far towards conservatism in the handling of pitchers. Hamels doesn’t have to throw 140 pitches in a start, and he isn’t being asked to make 40 starts in a season. But with four months of rest ahead of him and a title on the line-one that no player is guaranteed another chance at-isn’t this the time to modify his usage just a bit to maximize the Phillies’ chances?
The risk isn’t even as great as it sounds. You’re definitely moving up Hamels to make one start on short rest, in Game Four. The second start on short rest would only come into play if the season were to come down to one game, and I think we can all agree that making such a start is, to some extent, why Cole Hamels picked up a baseball in the first place. At 24 years old-25 in eight weeks-Hamels is past the point where you have to be hyper-conservative about his workload. The entire reason that you nurture a pitcher like Hamels is so you can win a championship on his back.
Is Hamels on short rest still an ace? Is he better than Joe Blanton, or in a different scenario, Jamie Moyer? Let’s be frank: I have no idea, and I’m going to speculate that no one else does, either. The numbers say that making starts on three days’ rest hurts a pitcher’s effectiveness, and turns good pitchers into fourth starters. However, the sample size we’re dealing with is tiny, and there are enough instances of success-CC Sabathia this year comes immediately to mind-that it’s hard to make a strong argument against the idea. Starting Hamels three times is a mild risk, but when you’re the underdog, you assume some risk for the upside.
What would it look like? Well, one problem with starting your ace one-four-seven is that you need someone to start Game Five. That’s your number-four starter or your number two on short rest. I don’t think Myers on short rest is better than Blanton, so I would use Blanton in Game Five, and Myers, on a short leash, in Game Six. More creatively, you could start Moyer in Game Six and go to Myers after one time through the order or so, turning the Rays’ lineup around and gaining whatever benefits may be gained by switching from the soft-tosser to the hard thrower. The entire bullpen, coming off of an offday, would be available behind the two.
Starting Cole Hamels three times in the World Series maximizes the Phillies’ chance of winning by sending their best pitcher-by far-to the mound as often as possible. With not much data to go on, the safest assumption is that he would lose some effectiveness, but not enough to make him worse than the other options. Hamels’ upside is also a bit higher than that of the other pitchers. The threat to his well-being is not much more than it would be in a normal start, and the pursuit of a championship is the time to take that risk.
Thank you for reading
This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.
Subscribe now
Just sayin\'.
Win 1st decision: 64 of 103 (maybe 63, depending on where my error is)
G2: 68 of 103
G3: 69 of 103
G4: 75 of 103
G5: 56 of 83
G6: 43 of 61
G7: 38 of 39 (the Black Sox won game 7 of a best of 9)
G8: 3 of 3
That\'s not to say that Joe\'s assertion isn\'t correct in this particular instance however, given the circumstances of how these two teams match up.
As stated, it is a tiny sample size. Nevertheless, I can\'t ignore the comment:
\"The numbers say that making starts on three days\' rest hurts a pitcher\'s effectiveness, and turns good pitchers into fourth starters\"
Does this not mean that you would be sending up pitchers of
\'08 SNLVAR: 7.1, 3.5, 5.0, ~4.0, 3.0, 3.5+, ~4.0.
Is that realy better than
\'08 SNLVAR: 7.1, 3.5, 5.0, 3.0, 7.1, 3.5, 5.0?
This essentially takes you from having 2 games as \"very likely wins\" and having to steal 2 others in 5 chances to 1 game as a \"likely win\" and having to steal 3 others in 6 chances.
My first instict is the same as yours Joe - ride Hamels for 3 games. That one sentence above makes me doubt that belief. Again, just playing Devil\'s Advocate.
The only way to get Hamels to pitch 1-4-7 without having both be on short rest is to rain out game 3 Saturday night. Check your local forecast . . .
First, where is the series at after 3 games? If it\'s 3-0 Rays, then you have to start Hamels on 3 days rest, wouldn\'t you? You need to win 4 games, and the best opportunity would be to gamble that Hamels on 3 days rest twice can give you 2 quality performances. On the other hand, if you\'re up 3-0, wouldn\'t you want the \"safe\" play of a \"guaranteed\" (and nothing in baseball is guaranteed) quality start from Hamels since he will be on full rest?
Also, wouldn\'t you want to use how he pitched in Game 1 as some sort of indicator? Small sample size caveats still applying, see how the Rays reacted to his pitches...Were they getting good swings in? Were they hopelessly lost? Also, how many pitches did he throw? If the Phillies are up 9-0 in the 5th, you may be able to take him out so he can pitch on short rest. On the other hand, if it\'s a 1-1 game in the 8th and Hamels is pitching brilliantly, you may just have to ride him for the entire game.
There are plenty of other \"nuggets\" of information that will be gained in the next few days, all before Game 4, I just picked a few obvious ones (where the series is at, how the Rays did against him in Game 1, and how many pitches he threw in Game 1).
I see no reason to even speculate what SHOULD be done until the day before Game 4, since what SHOULD be done could vary widely depending on what happens in the next few days.
Lastly, remember Arizona went 1-4-7 in 2001. They also made their Game 2/6 starter available for Game 7 - though they probably could have pulled RJ even earlier in Game 6 as that was an ugly blowout (I remember saying he should have been pulled in the 4th or 5th inning).
The point is, if you go the Hamels/Myers/Moyer/Hamels/Blanton/Myers/Hamels route, one advantage to using Moyer in Game 6 for enough innings is that if you can limit Myers enough in Game 6, you have him for an inning or two in Game 7. But then again, if it gets to a Game 7, it may just be Hamels to Lidge to conclusion.
Regardless, I think there are a few intangibles here that are not being considered as it pertains to the Phils. Mainly the bottom of their order in the playoffs as well as Myers and Blanton performance in the playoffs. I know I sound nuts, but I am a Phils fan through and through.
Also, getting significantly cooler up here now in Philadelphia. Any strange numbers out there as it pertains to temperature and the game?
What\'s the SNLVAR of Myers in the second half of this year, after he got demoted and came back?
SATURDAY NIGHT
RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 50. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
Somebody up there likes the Phillies.