The Rangers Were Overdue for a Championship… or Were They?

Not all outs are the same. As Crash Davis professes in Bull Durham, “Strikeouts are boring. Besides that, they’re fascist. Throw some ground balls. It’s more democratic.”

Getting outs is a short-term goal though. The long-term aim is to win the championship, which the Texas Rangers accomplished for the first time in their 63-year history, dating back to their 1961 inception as the Washington Senators. They were one of six teams that had never won the World Series, leaving that unwelcome distinction to Colorado, Milwaukee, San Diego, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. All five of them were expansion teams that formed in 1969 or later, but technically, Texas’ drought wasn’t the longest in MLB. Cleveland hasn’t won it all since 1948. 

Based on being the oldest ballclub without a championship, one could posit that they were the most overdue. This position only holds up depending on which system of ideology governs MLB.

Democracy

In a true democracy, everyone has the same participation. This is not how baseball operates. The 30 teams don’t take equal turns winning a championship. If they did, each franchise would win precisely once every 30 years. There would be no dynasties, no prolonged misery, no drama, and not much point in having a league at all.

If everything was equal and purely democratic, the Rangers and each of the 17 other teams that have been around since 1961 would’ve been expected to win 2.4 championships apiece. There have been 62 World Series in 63 years since then (1994 being the exception), but the number of teams has changed. Each club had a 1-in-18 chance in 1961, a 1-in-20 chance from 1962-1968, a 1-in-24 chance from 1969-1976, a 1-in-26 chance from 1977-1992, a 1-in-28 chance from 1993-1997, and a 1-in-30 chance since 1998.

Rangers Championship Shares—Democracy
Date	Teams	# of Years	Championship Share
1961	18	1	0.1
1962-1968	20	7	0.4
1969-1976	24	8	0.3
1977-1992	26	16	0.6
1993-1997*	28	4	0.1
1998-2023	30	26	0.9
		Total:	2.4

*Excluding 1994

Had the Rangers not won this year, they would be 2.4 championships below expected for a franchise that has existed since 1961. As it stands, they’re still 1.4 championships away from their equal share.

Like America, MLB isn’t a direct democracy. We choose our representatives. Under the democratic republic model, a team only has an opportunity to win the World Series when elected as a leader—in other words, when they reach the postseason.

The Rangers haven’t done this very often over the last 63 years. They didn’t play in a single postseason game for their first 36 seasons, finally breaking the dry spell in 1996. (They actually “finished” in first place in 1994 when there was no postseason, albeit with a 52-62 record. It was a weird year.) Including 2023, they’ve made it to October nine times. In seven of those seasons, they advanced directly to the Division Series, either because there was no Wild Card round in the playoff format or because they earned a bye. Twice they were subjected to a Wild Card game or series.

If all chosen representatives were equal, the Rangers would have a 1-in-8 chance to win in the years when they started in the Division Series and half of a 1-in-8 chance—or 1-in-16—when their run began in the Wild Card round, such as it did in 2023.

Rangers Championship Shares—Democratic Republic
Playoff Year	First Round	Championship Share
1996	ALDS	0.125
1998	ALDS	0.125
1999	ALDS	0.125
2010	ALDS	0.125
2011	ALDS	0.125
2012	ALWC	0.063
2015	ALDS	0.125
2016	ALDS	0.125
2023	ALWC	0.063
	Total:	1.000

That’s a lot better! The Rangers deserve exactly one championship in a democratic republic, and that’s what they got. Chalk up a win for the US Constitution while we’re at it.

Meritocracy

Democracies, including democratic republics, are based on principles of equality. That’s important if we’re deciding how to fund public services or pass legislation, but sports are inherently unequal. That’s the whole point! The regular season and playoffs exist to determine which collection of players is the best. It’s meritocratic rather than democratic—teams must earn their wins.

Even over several decades, some franchises have been more successful than others. The Yankees lead MLB with a .560 winning percentage since 1961 and have nine championships in that span. The Marlins—born in 1993—are in the basement at .462, even though they have two championships of their own. Despite Florida/Miami’s trophies, there is a strong .83 correlation between the winning percentage and the number of championships for MLB teams.

How many championships does each franchise deserve based on their winning percentage? Think of it like picking ping pong balls in a draft lottery, except that teams get ping pong balls commensurate with wins rather than losses. Every team has at least one ping pong ball in the drum, but the Marlins only have one whereas the Yankees have 5.2. Also, there are fractions of ping pong balls somehow. It’s not a perfect analogy but bear with it.

If we add up all 30 teams’ ping pong balls, there are 75.5 altogether in the drum. However, not every season since 1961 has featured all 30 teams. The Yankees’ number of balls doesn’t change in the 1961 “drawing,” but the Marlins’ ball isn’t in the mix. Neither are any of the other post-1961 expansion teams’.

Based on the number of ping pong balls according to winning percentage, the number of teams in play each season, and how many ping pong balls there are in total each year, we can find an expected number of championships for each franchise. Rather than post all 30 in one giant table, here they are broken up by league and then by expansion year.

First, we’ll do the 10 AL Teams playing since 1961. The Rangers are on the bottom of this pile with a .476 winning percentage.

Meritocracy—AL Teams 1961-2023
Team	WL%	Ping Pong Balls	Championship Shares	Championships	Championships Above Expected
NYY	.560	5.2	4.6	9	4.4
BOS	.531	3.9	3.5	4	0.5
BAL	.510	3.0	2.7	3	0.3
OAK	.502	2.7	2.4	4	1.6
CHW	.498	2.5	2.3	1	-1.3
MIN	.497	2.5	2.2	2	-0.2
LAA	.497	2.5	2.2	1	-1.2
CLE	.495	2.4	2.1	0	-2.1
DET	.491	2.2	2.0	2	0.0
TEX	.476	1.6	1.4	1	-0.4

With only 1.6 ping pong balls, Texas would still expect 1.4 championships by now. If they didn’t win it all in 2023, They would be 1.4 championships below expected, which would make them the third-most overdue franchise in MLB—but they did, so they aren’t.

The Yankees’ 4.6 championship shares are the most in MLB, but it’s still half as many as they’ve actually won. They’re 4.4 championships above expected, which is easily the most of any franchise. According to this method, they deserve a prolonged drought beyond their current 14-year dry run.

Meritocracy—NL Teams 1961-2023
Team	WL%	Ping Pong Balls	Championship Shares	Championships	Championships Above Expected
LAD	.549	4.7	4.2	5	0.8
STL	.530	3.9	3.5	5	1.5
ATL	.521	3.5	3.1	2	-1.1
SFG	.517	3.3	3.0	3	0.0
CIN	.514	3.2	2.9	3	0.1
PHI	.497	2.5	2.2	2	-0.2
PIT	.489	2.2	1.9	2	0.1
CHC	.484	1.9	1.7	1	-0.7

The Dodgers and Cardinals each have five championships, but the Dodgers are more deserving based on championship shares. Unsurprisingly, Atlanta is overdue based on their regular-season success.

Meritocracy—1962 Expansion Teams
Team	WL%	Ping Pong Balls	Championship Shares	Championships	Championships Above Expected
HOU	.501	2.7	2.3	2	-0.3
NYM	.482	1.9	1.6	2	0.4

The Astros and White Sox both have about the same number of ping pong balls, but the Astros have slightly fewer championship shares because they didn’t play in 1961.

Meritocracy—1969 Expansion Teams
Team	WL%	Ping Pong Balls	Championship Shares	Championships	Championships Above Expected
MIL	.486	2.0	1.5	0	-1.5
WSN	.484	1.9	1.5	1	-0.5
KCR	.475	1.6	1.2	2	0.8
SDP	.465	1.1	0.9	0	-0.9

Only the Royals have overperformed relative to championships expected among the 1969 quartet.

Meritocracy—1977 Expansion Teams
Team	WL%	Ping Pong Balls	Championship Shares	Championships	Championships Above Expected
TOR	.499	2.6	1.6	2	0.4
SEA	.476	1.6	1.0	0	-1.0

The Blue Jays have been one of the most successful expansion franchises. The Mariners… have not.

Meritocracy—1990s Expansion Teams
Team	WL%	Ping Pong Balls	Championship Shares	Championships	Championships Above Expected
COL	.465	1.1	0.5	0	-0.5
MIA	.462	1.0	0.4	2	1.6
TBR	.490	2.2	0.8	0	-0.8
ARI	.486	2.0	0.7	1	0.3

The Marlins and Rockies have the two lowest winning percentages in the league. Correspondingly, they have the two lowest win shares, even though they had a head start on the Diamondbacks and Rays.

Which teams are the most overdue for a championship based on their winning percentage and age?

Meritocracy—Most Overdue Teams
Team	Championships	Championship Shares	Championships Above Expected
CLE	0	2.1	-2.1
MIL	0	1.5	-1.5
CHW	1	2.3	-1.3
LAA	1	2.2	-1.2
ATL	2	3.1	-1.1
SEA	0	1.0	-1.0

The Guardians, dominant in the 1990s, ought to have a pair of trophies since 1961. Oh well, maybe next year. How about the most oversatiated clubs?

Meritocracy—Most Oversatiated Teams
Team	Championships	Championship Shares	Championships Above Expected
NYY	9	4.6	4.4
MIA	2	0.4	1.6
OAK	4	2.4	1.6
STL	5	3.5	1.5

The Yankees are in a class by themselves. Miami has the fewest championship shares, but two rings. They’re tied with Oakland for the second-most championships above expected according to the merits of their winning percentage.

Aristocracy

Winning percentage is an average, and averages are deceptive. The A’s have a .502 winning percentage since 1961, but if they went 81-81 or 82-80 in every season, they’d have never made the playoffs at all. They’ve amassed four championships partly due to their volatility. They’ve balanced stretches of greatness—like the early 1970s dynasty and the late 80s/early 90s Bash Brothers teams—with periods of some of the ugliest professional baseball ever played—such as the 1960s Kansas City Athletics and the 2023 team.

Should the goal be to play terrible baseball sometimes to make the peaks and valleys more extreme, thereby increasing the chance for a championship? Of course not! The goal should be competing for a title every year like the Yankees have often done historically—2023 notwithstanding—but that’s easier said than done.

The meritocracy method falls flat because, in any given year, several teams don’t put their ping pong balls in the drum at all. The 50-112 A’s and 56-106 Royals had no chance of winning the World Series in 2023. MLB more closely resembles an aristocracy. There is a class of teams with privileged access to championship riches that the proletariat cannot obtain. Unlike an actual aristocracy, franchises can rotate in and out of the privileged class, but you get the picture.

Determining the boundary between the haves and have-nots is more complicated. We could look at the winning percentages of playoff teams each year, but the tournament has grown and evolved considerably since the 1960s when the best team in each league advanced directly to the World Series. Besides, the goal is to win it all, not just to get into the dance, and not all playoff teams have an equal chance to win. Some are better than others, and that plays out over short series slightly more often than not.

Instead, let’s look at the 62 champions. They have an average winning percentage of .600 on the dot (well, .59981). At a 99% confidence level, the margin of error for the true average winning percentage of a championship ballclub is between .586 and .613. We’ll use the .586 number because it’s at least that high. That translates to a 95-67 record over 162 games. There is a .85 correlation between a franchise’s number of .586 winning-percentage seasons and their amount of championships, which is ever-so-slightly stronger than using overall winning percentage.

Now let’s break out the ping pong balls again, but instead of distributing balls based on winning percentage, we’ll do this based on the number of times each club has achieved a .586 winning percentage or better (excepting 1994), or in other words the number of times they had a championship-caliber roster. You know what that means—more tables!

Aristocracy—AL Teams 1961-2023
Team	.586 WL% Seasons	Ping Pong Balls	Championship Shares	Championships	Championships Above Expected
NYY	25	6.0	5.3	9	3.7
OAK	15	4.0	3.6	4	0.4
BAL	14	3.8	3.4	3	-0.4
BOS	13	3.6	3.2	4	0.8
MIN	7	2.5	2.2	2	-0.2
DET	6	2.3	2.0	2	0.0
CHW	5	2.1	1.8	1	-0.8
CLE	5	2.1	1.8	0	-1.8
LAA	5	2.1	1.8	1	-0.8
TEX	3	1.7	1.5	1	-0.5

The Yankees achieve more championship shares using this method because they’ve had a .586 winning percentage 25 out of 62 times. Their 3.7 championships above expected are still the highest, but it’s less of an outlier than using the meritocratic method and it underscores the importance of earning access to baseball’s aristocracy each year. 

How about those A’s? They look a lot more deserving of their four championships now. Those terrible seasons like the one they just suffered through no longer bog down their championship shares. As for the Rangers, they’re only half-a-championship behind schedule.

Aristocracy—NL Teams 1961-2023
Team	.586 WL% Seasons	Ping Pong Balls	Championship Shares	Championships	Championships Above Expected
LAD	16	4.2	3.8	5	1.2
ATL	15	4.0	3.6	2	-1.6
CIN	12	3.4	3.1	3	-0.1
STL	10	3.0	2.7	5	2.3
PIT	8	2.6	2.4	2	-0.4
SFG	7	2.5	2.2	3	0.8
PHI	5	2.1	1.8	2	0.2
CHC	4	1.9	1.7	1	-0.7

This will not shock Atlanta fans, but given that they’ve dominated the sport nearly uninterrupted for three decades, they deserve nearly four championships by now. The Cardinals’ 2.3 championships above expected are second behind the Yankees. That won’t shock Atlanta fans either.

Aristocracy—1962 Expansion Teams
Team	.586 WL% Seasons	Ping Pong Balls	Championship Shares	Championships	Championships Above Expected
HOU	8	2.6	2.3	2	-0.3
NYM	7	2.5	2.1	2	-0.1

Aristocracy—1969 Expansion Teams
Team	.586 WL% Seasons	Ping Pong Balls	Championship Shares	Championships	Championships Above Expected
WSN	5	2.1	1.6	1	-0.6
MIL	5	2.1	1.6	0	-1.6
KCR	3	1.7	1.3	2	0.7
SDP	2	1.5	1.1	0	-1.1

Milwaukee and San Diego both should’ve had a championship by this point.

Aristocracy—1977 Expansion Teams
Team	.586 WL% Seasons	Ping Pong Balls	Championship Shares	Championships	Championships Above Expected
TOR	4	1.9	1.2	2	0.8
SEA	1	1.3	0.8	0	-0.8

The Mariners have just one .586 winning-percentage season—their 2001 campaign in which they finished 116-46. The biggest flaw of this model is that it doesn’t give extra credit for winning 21 more games than necessary to reach the threshold. Then again, they lost in the ALCS to the 95-win Yankees, so make of that what you will.

Aristocracy—1990s Expansion Teams
Team	.586 WL% Seasons	Ping Pong Balls	Championship Shares	Championships	Championships Above Expected
COL	0	1.1	0.4	0	-0.4
MIA	0	1.1	0.4	2	1.6
TBR	6	2.3	0.8	0	-0.8
ARI	2	1.5	0.5	1	0.5

The Marlins and Rockies are the only two franchises that have never had a .586 winning percentage. Naturally, Miami has two trophies anyway.

Aristocracy—Most Overdue Teams
Team	Championships	Championship Shares	Championships Above Expected
CLE	1.8	0	-1.8
ATL	3.6	2	-1.6
MIL	1.6	0	-1.6
SDP	1.1	0	-1.1

If the Rangers hadn’t won the World Series this season, they would’ve been fourth on this list, just behind Atlanta and Milwaukee. Meanwhile, the wait continues for Cleveland.

Aristocracy—Most Oversatiated Teams
Team	Championships	Championship Shares	Championships Above Expected
NYY	5.3	9	3.7
STL	2.7	5	2.3
MIA	0.4	2	1.6
LAD	3.8	5	1.2

The Yankees, Cardinals, and Dodgers are frequently among baseball’s best. Their reward for sustaining success is more championships than deserved. As for the Marlins, they won their rings fair and square no matter what any model says.

The 1997 World Series in particular stands out as the most unjust result ever—historically speaking. The 92-70 Marlins, in their fifth year of existence (fourth with a postseason) and first season above .500 knocked out Cleveland in seven games. Lights-out closer José Mesa gave up a game-tying sacrifice fly in the bottom of the ninth, two outs away from ending their drought. Two innings later, Edgar Rentería singled home the World Series-clinching run with the bases loaded and two outs.

Whether you use a democratic, meritocratic, or aristocratic lens, the result should’ve gone the other way. But it didn’t. Sometimes fairness, balance, and what is deserved according to laws and governance win the day. Other times, Liván Hernández just has the best month of his career at the right time. Did the Rangers win the 2023 World Series because of Adolis García and Corey Seager or were they historically due? It depends on your perspective of the game itself.