Earlier this month I published a piece introducing SEAGER—a new metric for evaluating swing decisions that attempts to reward hitters not just for spitting on the pitches they should, but also for not letting pitchers sneak pitches by them in areas and counts where they can do damage. It’s named after Corey Seager because of his mastery of this approach, commonly referred to by scouts as “selective aggression”.
To demonstrate how it works, I wanted to point out some tangible examples that stand out for how differently they look viewed through the SEAGER lens compared to our traditional public metrics used for judging plate discipline, chiefly O-Swing percentage, or chase rate. The largest differences between the metrics broadly fall into two categories. The first are players typically seen as free-swingers—those who chase outside the zone more than the league average. While chase rates and walk percentages say these players are undisciplined, SEAGER sometimes sees the eagerness to swing as the cost of doing business for a damage-focused, aggressive approach—when it’s not reckless. The second are players (or teams) who are said to have an excellent eye at the plate, but whose patience is bordering on passivity that undermines their abilities. These hitters are letting too many chances pass them by.
Two teams stand out for how many of their hitters fall into one of those two buckets: the Houston Astros and the San Diego Padres. Both rosters were chock full of some of the best hitters in the game—some of whom have been voted All-Stars many times over. On pure talent alone, a quick glance suggests these lineups should have performed similarly in 2023. On one hand you have Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, Jr., etc. and on the other you have Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, etc. Both teams should have raked! Of course, we know that’s not quite what happened: the Astros held up their end of the bargain, finishing in the top five in runs scored while the Padres were, maddeningly, at times, closer to average, finishing with only the 13th-highest run total.
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