After a lull, I’m doing spots for ESPNews again, and I’ll be on this afternoon at 5:15 p.m. This is actually a phone interview, not a video spot, which I have to think will be a bump for ratings and a salve for weary HD viewers.
One of the questions—we usually discuss topics during the day leading up to the spot—will be about Joba Chamberlain. The Yankees‘ right-hander made the longest start of his career last night, going eight innings and facing 28 batters in shutting down the Indians on four hits and two runs. The inning and batters faced totals are the highest of his career, and the 106 pitches the fifth-most he’s ever tossed as a Yankee.
The question I’ll be asked is, “How much was Chamberlain’s start a gauge to see if he’d stay in the rotation or return to the pen?”
Now, I completely understand why I’m being asked the question. Chamberlain pitched last night, so he’s in the news cycle. Talk about the possibility that he could be sent back to the bullpen seemed to accelerate with each event in the Yankees’ world. Philip Hughes has been effective enough to warrant a spot in the rotation; Chien-Ming Wang has returned from the DL and is best-suited for a starting role; the Yankees continue to get inconsistent work from their relief corps, most recently losing Sunday’s contest when Phil Coke and David Robertson combined to allow the winning run in the ninth.
Moving Joba Chamberlain to the bullpen seems to solve all of these problems. Hughes can stay in the rotation, Wang can get his job back, something he seems ready for based on a 2.25 ERA in three appearances, with seven strikeouts in eight innings since his return. Chamberlain, based on his skill set and track record, would be the Yankees’ second-best reliever after Mariano Rivera and presumably help the team protect leads and tied games in the seventh and eighth innings better than the other options have.
There’s just one problem with all of this: Joba Chamberlain is a fantastic starting pitcher. He’s the team’s second-best starter right now, and there’s a chance that he’ll be the best starter by 2010. His SNLVAR of 1.3 is just a fraction behind Andy Pettitte‘s mark of 1.4 for second on the team, a gap that would likely not exist had Chamberlain not been knocked out of his May 21 start against the Orioles by a line drive. Used exclusively as a starter this year, Chamberlain has a 3.71 ERA in 53 1/3 innings. Last night was his fifth quality start in ten, with one of the others being that injury-shortened outing. Durability is an issue, but it’s as much a created one-the Yankees continue to be hypercautious with Chamberlain-as it is a weakness in his game.
In his career, Chamberlain now has a 3.19 ERA in 22 starts, averaging a little more than 5
The conversation on whether to move a starter to the bullpen begins with whether the pitcher can be a successful starter in the majors. Chamberlain has proved that he can prevent runs with the best of them, so that’s not a problem. While he’s suffered nagging injuries on occasion, he hasn’t had the kind of durability problems that, say, Rich Harden has. By pitching standards, Chamberlain has a good health record, and the kind of record that doesn’t warrant a role change.
The argument that the Yankees need Chamberlain in the eighth inning, that he’d be more valuable there than as a starter, holds no water at all. Pitchers who can throw 190 innings of good baseball are more valuable than pitchers who can throw 75 of somewhat better, somewhat better-leveraged baseball. If the argument was to get 110 innings of high-leverage relief from Chamberlain, I’d be on board with it, but that’s not the job in play. The job in play is throwing 15 pitches in the eighth inning of games where the Yankees are tied or have a 1-4 run lead, without much regard for the opposition, and eventually a job as a save accumulator. The usage patterns of modern relievers don’t allow them to close the gap in a way that makes it logical to convert an effective, healthy starting pitcher to the bullpen.
Proponents of changing his role, including one highly visible and vocal one in New York, are fond of citing Chamberlain’s success as a reliever. Like many pitchers, Chamberlain took well to the simpler task of relief pitching, and has a career ERA of 1.53 in that role, with a 78/19 K/BB in 59 innings. The lesson to take isn’t that Chamberlain is a better reliever than a starter; the lesson is that everyone is a better reliever than a starter. The Yankees bullpen nine months ago was effective with a cast of no-names; there are many, many pitchers who can succeed in the hyperlimited role of the modern relief pitcher, and the Yankees themselves have more candidates than they can count. (This is, to some extent, the problem.) There are precious few who can do the other job, the more important one, which is to start games and throw close to 200 effective innings. The game pays middling starting pitchers what the best relievers get. The game locks up starting pitchers and churns through short relievers. The game drafts starting pitchers and eventually converts some to relief. Relief pitching, by and large, is still the realm of the failed starting pitcher.
Joba Chamberlain isn’t a failed starting pitcher. He’s a very good starting pitcher.
So I’ll answer the question today, and the next time it comes up, and the time after that. Maybe I’ll be answering it on the day Chamberlain wins a Cy Young Award, or helps his team win a championship, or signs a massive free-agent deal. The level of investment some people have in this idea—in the face of the available evidence—will keep the story alive. For now, though, let’s stop focusing on the work Chamberlain did in 2007 as a rookie for a desperate team, and start looking at him for what he’s always been: a starter.
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2. You always see if a top rate starter in the minors can be a top rate starter in the majors. Always, every single time. Especially with how modern relievers are wasted, as Joe notes.
3. The "highly visible and vocal" proponent in New York of moving Joba to the pen is one Mike Francesa, and Francesa's arguments are pretty ludicrous. He said he "has seen how good Joba can be in the pen," but "has not seeen how good he can be as a starter." Well, first you need to (surprise!) actually let him start in order to see how good he is as a starter.
Second, he has been PLENTY GOOD as a starter, as Joe notes. Sure, he has struggled with command, but he has been fine as a starter, and there is no reason he can't improve.
As Joe also notes, relieving is easier than starting, so it's not surprising that Joba was better as a reliever. The issue is why one would advocate wasting his full potential there.
4. This would not be a "debate" if someone named Mariano Rivera had never played for the Yankees. But there is now an obsession with Replacing Rivera.
5. As for the general issue of bullpen roles, first people were fooled by something called a Closer; now they think the 8th inning is magic as well. It's really bizarre.
6. Francesa last week kept citing Chamberlain's 3.97 ERA for 2009, as if that were bad. But it's not bad, and is basically the low range of what people are expecting of him anyway. Francesa discounts Chamberlain's performance as a starter in the latter half of 2008 because he thinks the Yankees were babying Chamberlain. So, apparently, the time Chamberlain spent in the majors pitching to major league hitters as a starter doesn't count.
7. Joe: I thought you told me you don't listen to Francesa?
hatred of the yanks and their coverage is disproportional.
This doesn't mean I'm going to write about specific teams just to generate traffic. I write whatever springs to mind on a given day, and god knows where the inspiration might come from. But I do think the argument that writing about high-profile teams is somehow wrong has been invalidated by the comment counts on articles since September.
You're right, Ira. I'm not sure who would be interested in this sort of thing. I mean, really, this East Coast Bias has gotten ridiculous. Besides Yankee fans, Red Sox fans, Rays fans, Blue Jays fans, Joe Sheehan fans, Joba Chamberlain fans, fantasy baseball players of all stripes, those interested in pitcher usage patterns, those interested in tracking young potential-stud pitchers, those who find the disconnect between mainstream media opinion and proper evaluation fascinating, and people who simply enjoy good baseball analysis and writing regardless of the topic, I can probably only think of several million people who would possibly care.
Mr. Sheehan, I hope you take this to heart. Please stop writing about things that appeal to so many people. I'd be fully in support of an expansive website spin-off of Baseball Prospectus called, "What Irablum Wants to Read About." I'm sure it would be a cash cow for Prospectus Ventures.
Hey, to sweeten the pot, I'll volunteer to write the very first article: "Improving Irablum's Roster in His 5X5 18-owner AL-/NL Keeper League: Backup Corner Infielder Analysis." Bah, I probably shouldn't get everyone all excited about reading such a fantastic piece without a little taste of what I've got so far:
"...and so Praise be to Irablum as per usual, but Ramiro Pena is simply not worth the roster spot at this juncture..."
"...like a bag of moldy tangerines! Instead, Irablum in his infinite wisdom will likely snap Diamondback Josh Whitesell up off the free..."
All joking aside, I hope BP understands the vast potential revenue involved in zeroing in on a target demographic of one. The Irablum Radio Hour, The Irablum BP Annual (stripped of all those pesky players Irablum doesn't care about), the possibilities here are endless and I, for two, would like to see BP take the industry initiative on this one.
Joba Chamberlain is at most the 4th best pitcher on his team. He currently ranks 57th among pitchers in VORP, behind such luminaries as Jason Marquis and Mark DeFelice. This isn't an article about usage patterns or young studs (if this article is the first you've heard about Joba Chamberlain, Joe D., crawl out from under your rock more often).
There's no non-Yankee-centric reason for Joba Chamberlain to be the exlusive focus of an article like this. If there is, then Joe's next article will no doubt be entirely about Josh Outman - whose VORP, incidentally, is also higher than Joba Chamberlain's.
If Joe Sheehan wants to write about the Yankees, that's his prerogative. He's paid his dues, and he can write about any dm thing he wants - and I'll read it, too. But stop pretending this particular article has anything to do with anything important to baseball per se. It's a Yankee piece, written by a Yankee fan, to entertain his subscriber base's Yankee fans. Period.
And I STILL don't care about Joba Chamberlain.
Why is it always Joba that has to go the bullpen? As Joe so astutely notes above, he is a fantastic starting pitcher. He was a starter before the Yankees moved him to the bullpen for two months back in 2007 in an effort to help a porous bullpen at that juncture in time. With Wang healthy now, why is no one is talking about pushing HUGHES to the bullpen? He's younger than Joba, coming off a lost season where he was injured, will probably push the Verducci Effect this year with his IP, which, when coupled with the injury last year, will NOT be good for his future prospects.
And Wang, with 38 wins over the last two years, should at least be given the benefit of the doubt here over a 22 year old uber-prospect. If his mechanics are cleaned up and his sinker is on, he's a great weapon to have in the starting five. The Yankees already have a similar pitcher in their bullpen. His name is Alfredo Aceves.
So the question bears repeating; Why not let Hughes be the 7th or 8th inning guy. You can limit his pitch counts
to 20-25 pitches per appearance and keep his IP low and in line with what theworkload of a 22 year old kid should be. He can hit 95-96 on the gun when he's throwing with maximum effort too, and has a great curveball to offset that
heat.
With Pettitte most likely gone next season you have Hughes work his arm strength back to being a starter during the offseason and you leave him there for the duration of his career.
Why keep yo-yo'ing Joba around when the solution is right in front of their face?
Looking at the six starters, I'd actually like AJ Burnnet in the pen the most. But that contract certainly makes that unlikely. At this point keeping Wang in the pen makes the most sense, but I'd like to see what he could do as a high leverage reliever throwing that 95mph sinker rather than a long-man. Then let Wang convert back to a starter next year when Pettitte is likely gone.
I also think it's not right to jerk Chamberlain around back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen. He's switched roles twice now in season.
"I'm a starter."
that being said, the idea that joba is more valuable as a reliever is hilarious and it amazes me that it still gets talked about.
Joba the reliever was never required to pitch two days in a row. If he pitched two innings one game, he was then allowed to take two days off. Would he have been as effective if he was treated like a normal reliever?
Meh, sometimes people are just crazy.
I definitely think the Yanks need to keep Hughes in the rotation as well, whether at the major league level or at AAA. Every reason that Joba should remain a starter applies to Hughes as well. Hell, I still think Hughes ends up as the more effective starter with a longer career. The last thing the Yanks need to do is mess with his development.
I'm kinda liking the idea of Wang as a reliever, at least until the inevitable AJ Burnett injury. Plus, if everyone does stay healthy, maybe the Yanks can work Wang into the rotation during the heat of July and August to help keep Joba and Hughes fresh.
There are worst problems to have then trying to fit six pitchers into a five man rotation.
When the best guy (starter) struggles, you go to the next best guy available if the game's close. Sometimes that includes the next day's probable starter. If it's a blowout, you use your mop-up guys. If you have tough back-to-back games, maybe you save your starter for tomorrow, but you bring in a good pitcher. You don't bring in a closer--you don't have enough quality pitchers for a closer.
Now this is also the reason HS pitchers get abused, but that's a different story. Aside from the reckless managers, I think you use your best guys most often and in highest-leverage situations in high schools across America.
Not that he is struggling anyway, with a 3.19 ERA in 22 career starts.
As for your phrasing "career whip" as a starter, again, he doesn't have much of a "career" as a starter yet. Give him time.
Yankees announced today that Wang will start Thursday's game with Phil Hughes going to the bullpen. Hughe's actual role has not yet been defined, however, so it will be interesting to see exactly what role they give him.
"Yeah, Andy, remember that time you were really great and I was a lousy backup catcher playing too much and I got three World Series rings thanks in part to you? That was cool. Anyway, we need to talk..."
and until we find one we are vulnerable. I'm more than aware Chamberlain was a rookie when he ascended to that role, but I don't think Melancon and Robertson have that kind of stuff and I can't stand watching Veras pitch. This debate, from our side of things, is not about is Chamberlain more valuable as a starter or reliever; it never has been really. I don't want to jerk the guy around either, but we need him to setup more than we need him to start right now. And I'm perfectly willing to go with that strategy down the road as well. Mariano is the greatest closer who ever lived in my opinion. When he steps aside we will have a Grand Canyon like void to fill. I know Pettitte is all but gone after this year and that Burnett is a bit older than our core, but I'd rather pay big money to a proven starter than $17M a year to Frankie Rodriguez. We can groom our own can't we? And by no means am I dismissing the other side of this debate despite being ridiculed and insulted for what I and many others believe. There's a reason this debate won't die; it's pretty even for and against after nearly a year of talking about it. Nobody is 100% right. If our starter doesn't pitch seven innings we stand an excellent chance of coughing up the game before Mariano can pitch. Right now, since we are scoring 10 runs a game it's not much of a factor, but in the playoffs...all due respect to the folks who want Chamberlain to start. He's great wherever they put him. I don't need to be right; I just want to win it all. I don't really believe there is a right and wrong answer here until we have to hand the ball to a less than dominating reliever with the season on the line. I hope it never comes to that, but you know it will...
As for this comment:
"I want him to succeed Mariano."
Why? Seriously. It's a waste of resources. It would be like having ARod move over to first base when he can still play third.
A-Rod isn't that good a third baseman. He's better than he was a few years ago, but he's still not very good. I do think that there is a statistical bias in that Yankees face more left handed hitters than most teams, but three years of below average numbers don't lie. He's not really comfortable there.
I guarantee they would much rather have him making the starts he's been giving them as opposed to splitting time in the bullpen with Motte, Franklin, Perez, etc. This remains true even AFTER last season, when their bullpen was one of the worst and most costly in recent memory.