On Tuesday afternoon the Blue Jays‘ general manager, J.P. Ricciardi, said that while he’s not shopping the pitcher, he will listen to offers for ace Roy Halladay. This is the only sensible approach. Ricciardi’s team was one of the six best in baseball last year, and never really appeared in a race for a post-season berth. It’s one of the seven or eight best teams in baseball this year…and is nevertheless the fourth-best team in its own division. It’s likely to be fourth-best in its division next year. Despite some young talent on hand, the competition level of the AL East means that Ricciardi has to try and build the best team in baseball, and his current core, even with Halladay and some young players, won’t become that team. Trading Halladay is his way to do what the Rangers did by trading Mark Teixeira, and accelerate the construction of a championship-caliber roster.
There’s no question that Halladay is a Teixeira-type player, arguably even more valuable. While his stat lines don’t show durability, a number of his recent injuries have been flukes rather than reflective of fragility. If he’s not the best pitcher in baseball, he’s on the short list for the honor. Like Teixeira at the time of that trade, Halladay is signed through next season, making him an even more attractive trade option than, say, CC Sabathia was a year ago.
Now, you’d normally try and figure out which teams have the prospects and the motivation to make an offer for a pitcher such as Halladay. This is complicated slightly by the fact that three of those teams-the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays-reside in the AL East with the Jays. It’s not out of the question to suggest that Ricciardi would deal Halladay within the division, but it’s probably in his mind to send him out of the AL East-and perhaps out of the AL altogether-if he can. None of those three teams has a burning need for a starting pitcher, though Halladay would front all of their rotations, and all could assemble a package that would rival what the Braves assembled when they traded for Teixeira. Outside of the division, you’d look at the Rangers, in a dogfight in the AL West and in dire need of a true number-one starter, with staggering amounts of pitching in their system. The Cardinals and Braves could assemble competitive offers, but both teams have such dire need for a bat that trading for Halladay would likely be off of their radars. The same goes for the Giants, and to a lesser extent the Marlins. Certainly every team in baseball could use a Roy Halladay, but some would be better off allocating resources elsewhere.
Let’s run at this from another direction. What if a team offered the Blue Jays not its very best prospects, but offered it the kind of payroll relief that would pay off for years to come? What if a team took Vernon Wells off of its hands?
When the Blue Jays signed Vernon Wells after the 2006 season, it was very clearly a case of buying high. The center fielder was coming off his age-27 season, his fifth as a full-time player, and just his second of those with an OBP above .340. Wells’ core skills showed him to be a good-not-great player, whose value was buoyed by excellent defense in center field, but lacking the on-base skills to be a true middle-of-the-order anchor, and with speed that was more perceived than actual (he was at 53/15 SB/CS to that point in his career). The contract was doomed the moment it was signed, massively backloaded to make it affordable to the team, but ensuring that Wells would eventually be an albatross. Here’s what’s left on it after this year:
2010: $12.5 million + $8.5 million share of signing bonus
2011: $23 million
2012: $21 million
2013: $21 million
2014: $21 million
That’s five years and $107 million, or about $11 million less than what’s left on Johan Santana‘s contract. It’s just a bit less than what Sabathia will make in those years. It’s more than what’s left on the laughingstock contracts signed by Alfonso Soriano and Barry Zito. If it’s not the worst contract in the game, it’s certainly in the discussion, and it threatens the Jays’ payroll for the next half-decade. Wells has rarely been worth $10 million in a season; the chance that he’ll be worth $21 million in any remaining season of his career is basically nil, and there’s some chance he won’t be worth that much in all five years combined. Just to look at one data point via MORP, PECOTA projects Wells to be worth $14.3 million… in those five seasons combined.
As you would expect from a player who wasn’t terribly fast entering his thirties, Wells’ range in center field is declining. The Jays will soon have to choose between making Wells a below-average center fielder or an average to average-plus corner man. Should they move him, though, his bat will be even more a relative handicap. Wells’ career line of .282/.330/.475, given the era and park in which he’s played, would be adequate in a corner. There’s not much reason to think he can match those numbers going forward, however. He hasn’t had an OBP of .350 or a SLG of .500 since that 2006 season that earned him the ridiculous contract. Give their young core, the number of expiring contracts they have and their likely path after a Halladay trade, Wells could be consuming a third of the payroll by Opening Day 2011 while hitting like a fourth outfielder.
How much would it be worth to a team to bite that bullet? If Wells were worth $14.3 million while making $107 million, Halladay would have to be worth more than $90 million in the next year and a half to balance it out. That’s probably not reasonable. What is? Halladay has been worth 3.7 WARP in a bit more than a half-season, while missing a couple of starts along the way. PECOTA projected him to be worth 5.2 wins, or about 2.7 to date. Let’s split the difference and suggest that Halladay is worth about three wins to whatever team trades for him-a conservative estimate given that he’d probably be replacing sub-replacement performance-and five wins next season. That’s eight all told, which means the marginal value of each win would have to be about $12.5 just to make taking on Wells’ contract a breakeven proposition, and before considering Halladay’s salary and any prospects required to close the deal.
You can’t get there. The peak of the marginal-win graph was $4.5 million back in 2006, as published in Baseball Between the Numbers. I can make a case for pushing that number higher, to about $5.5 million, maybe $6 million at the outside, given the increased industry revenues and the possibility that individual teams may have steeper curves. Teams with particularly weak outfields, such as the Braves or Mets, would potentially see a boost from adding Wells that a typical team wouldn’t. These bumps could make Halladay and Wells worth something shy of $50 million to their new team, or about $40 million less than the expected loss on Wells’ deal. I cannot get to the value of Wells’ contract; I’m stretched to get to half.
Now, you can play with the numbers, push Halladay’s projection higher, push Wells’ projection higher, maybe estimated high marginal revenues (if a team with a lot of room to grow, such as the Rangers, were to acquire him and reach the postseason). Still, I think it’s fair to say that the economic case for taking Vernon Wells in a Roy Halladay deal is weak, and again, this ignores the probably need to include at least some talent in return.
This actually strengthens the case for the Jays trying to do this kind of deal. Wells is a massive albatross, a roadblock to the construction of a championship team-he’s clearly not good enough to build around-and a payroll sink. Virtually no single prospect they can get back in a deal is going to provide more value than the $20 million a year they would get back by dumping Wells into a Halladay trade. A package of prospects that hits, like the one the Rangers got for Teixeira, could make up that value; of course, sometimes you try to make that trade and you get Carlos Gomez and nothing.
All of this sidesteps Vernon Wells’ no-trade clause, which may be the largest barrier to a deal. Then again, if you offer Wells a chance to go with Halladay to a contender, he might be willing to waive it. He has no option year to guarantee, and given how bad his contract is, no team is going to extend it just for the privilege of taking it on. If this type of deal were available, you’d probably have to rely on Wells wanting to play for a winning team, wanting to go with Halladay to a contender, and to not be perceived as the player who blocked a positive-if likely unpopular-step for the Jays.
Given all of this, which teams would come to the forefront in bidding for Halladay?
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The Mets: One of the wealthier teams in baseball, they clearly have the cash to invest in assuming Wells’ contract, and with both the injury to Carlos Beltran and the absence of other major league outfielders around, they’ll get more value from adding him than just about any other team. Halladay would join Santana to become the most dangerous one-two punch in baseball since Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson in 2001. The trade would vault the Mets back into the favorite spot in the NL East, and quite possibly make them the only viable challenger to the Dodgers in the NL. They’d have to include Fernando Martinez even if they took Wells back, which would be a killer. -
The Phillies: Not typically listed with the bluebloods, the Phillies are a high-revenue, big-market team coming off a championship, and playing in a relatively new ballpark. Halladay would be exactly what they need, given the drop-off in their rotation after Cole Hamels. Wells is a less-perfect fit, as they have a set starting outfield, although as we’ve seen, middling AL outfielders can go to Philadelphia and become very big contributors. If nothing else, Wells would enhance their bench and provide off-season options, such as trading Jayson Werth for pitching help. The Phillies seem more likely to make a traditional deal centered on one of their outfield prospects, Michael Taylor or Dominic Brown, and some young pitching. -
The Red Sox and Yankees: Any time a great player becomes available, these two teams will be mentioned. In this case, while any team could use a Halladay, and both could probably assume the obligation to Wells, neither seems a likely destination. The Sox already have more starting pitchers than they know what to do with, and have plenty of outfielders. The Yankees don’t have quite the same starting pitching depth, but it’s a strength, and they made so many financial commitments through the early 2010s last winter than another may be unlikely. Throw in that Ricciardi is probably motivated to trade Halladay to any other team, and neither seems like a strong player in this race. -
The Rangers: I like this one myself. At some point the Rangers will have to convert their prospect depth into major league players, and this is one way to do that. They would probably have to deal one of Derek Holland or Neftali Feliz, but then they could pull from further down their list and create a stronger package than anything most teams could assemble. If taking Wells had to happen, they could use him in the same way they’ve used Marlon Byrd this season, turning him into a fourth outfielder who plays a lot, and making sure he never talks to Julio Borbon about approach at the plate. A roster deep in young players would allow them to take the payroll hit for a while.
Every team in baseball could use Roy Halladay. Just one will end up with him. That team is probably going to be one with a deep farm system, but a willingness to be creative and to solve the organization’s single biggest problem might go further than a long list of prospects. A contract as damaging as Wells’ is rare-it is what people thought the Alex Rodriguez contract was-and it’s so bad that the Jays actually have to consider the idea that trading it away, rather than acquiring prospects, is the end goal of shopping Roy Halladay.
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As for Halladay's destination, the overwhelming favorite still has to be "he stays put"
Of course the Mets. Isn't their 3rd order wins lead insurmountable even without Halladay? No reason for them to empty their farm. Prospects wise, they have the least to offer, it would seem. The Phillies have a far deeper farm system, but they probably have no desire to acquire Wells or Rios. Werth and Victorino are both cheaper and more productive than Wells, and he's not coming in to be a $20M bench player.
However, I hadn't considered the underlying financial problems with the Rangers organization. You make a good point. It's even more relevant if they have to take on Wells contract on top of Halladay.
If they could get Halladay and ONLY Halladay, how much would that change the Rangers revenue? How many more fans come to the ballpark and spend money? I know several Rangers fans who are hungry for a truly competitive team.
I think you're right in most of your points.
[A tangent: In my opinion, the Mets should go the other way and conduct a fire sale of their own. They're not going to win anything as currently constituted, and think of how many amazing prospects they could get if David Wright was on the market?]
BP's recently updated (7/5) Depth Charts currently predict that the Braves will win the NL East, with the Mets in second, and the Phillies in third. Of course, to get such a counter-intuitive result, the model assumes that the Braves and Mets will both score runs like offensive juggernauts (446 and 444 runs, respectively) between now and the last day of the season, which would be a monster improvement on their current first half numbers (352 and 360 runs scored, respectively). They will also both (continue to) pitch great, and only allow 307(!) and 344 runs, respectively, between now and game 162. The Phillies, meanwhile, are predicted to copy their pitching performance from the first half (395 RA as of today, 396 RA for the rest of the season), while hitting much worse (435 Runs scored as of today, 366 RS for the rest of the year).
That has to be even more unlikely than Omar Minaya doing white flag trades (and admitting mistakes like Oliver Perez).
Last year he was on pace for his avg season I would say, but was cut short 200~ab's due to various injuries.
Yea this year he has struggled tremendously but I still believe he can regain some of his old form.
That said, I fully expect the Cards, Rangers or Chisox to be the ones landing Halladay. They all have far better prospects to deal to Toronto and all three have proactive front offices.
Can you imagine if a team picked up not only a pair of Cy Young caliber seasons in Halladay, but also 2-3 years of league-average outfield play in Wells for nothing more than a couple of prospects and payroll relief? The entire Toronto front office would get bounced on their collective ears trying to justify that and rightfully so.
Wells may well be a mistake, no reason to compound that error by also pissing away the best starter in baseball. Better to work around the Wells mistake by acquiring a plethora of good cheap talent for Halladay than to surrender both Wells and Hallady and just start from scratch.
Of course, given that Wilpon lost a quarter of a billion dollars with Bernie Madoff, I don't think the Mets are real contenders to add that much payroll.
Here's why: for the next 15 months, they (BoSox/Yankees) have Halladay. The Jays aren't going to be competative in those 15 months regardless of the package they get. After those 15 months though, any prospects they have and that they land in the deal are possibly going to be coming into their own and the Jays will be on the upswing. This is at the exact time that anchor of a contract to Wells is further weighing down the BoSox and Yankees.
The Blue Jays play screw your neighbor where the kill-shot hits at just the perfect time.
The Yankees have had some awful contracts to deal with in recent years. While it didn't kill them, the huge contracts inexplicably altered Cashman's construction of the non-Big Contract portions of the roster. Depth has reared its ugly head at various times this decade because of poor choices at backup C, backup 3B, outfield, the bench, and the bullpen. The Yankees have put all their eggs in a handful of very highly paid baskets and patched the rest of the roster together.
The Sox haven't had this kind of contract beyond the debatable pain of Manny's albatross contract. It wasn't a killer because the rest of the roster is reasonably balanced, with depth and youth everywhere. The biggest salary on the roster this year is $14m to JD Drew. Only three others make $10m or more. Compare that to the Yankees, with SIX guys paid more than Drew and nine above $10m. To quantify the difference in depth, the Sox pay their 20th highest paid player $1m, more than the Yankees pay theirs ($0.5m). All of which would lead me to be very surprised if the Sox are players in this one. The extension contract for Halladay and the Wells albatross would both be significant deviations from the Epstein era.
I don't know if I like the deal from the Yankees perspective, as the opportunity cost of having Wells in your outfield for the next five years is high and they're not desperate for a starter, but depending on what they have to give up in prospects, I must admit, the thought of adding Halladay for the next 1 1/2 years is tempting...
The mistakes are made. Those are now sunk costs, and it would be foolish of the Jays to reward Ricciardi for pretending they didn't happen.
Joe's exactly right. Halladay is the only opportunity the Jays will ever have to get out from under the Wells contract, and they should work their hardest to do just that.
I like Doc going to the White Sox, or Rangers(in order of my personal preference). That said, neither Kenny Williams, nor Jon Daniels seem likely to take on Wells contract, but stranger things have happened. The Rangers have better prospects to deal, and it would certainly give them the wherewithal to stay in the race, if not make them the favorite. Never underestimate Kenny Williams though, especially since the Sox are in much better shape, financially.
In the end, this may be much ado over nothing. Toronto, may not part with Halladay, unless they have their socks knocked off(which would include dumping Wells contract, of course).
As for Wells, trading him now would be at his value low point. He started the year off horribly, and has been known to be somewhat streaky in the past. And by somewhat, I mean extremely. See his MLVr's over the last three years: .144, -.131, .117. Or, if you prefer VORP: 59.5, 4.4, 30.2 (missed about a third of the season). He has gotten off to a brutal start to the season, currently sitting at a 741 OPS, but he has the ability (and track record) to bump that up close to 100 points by year's end. If he does that and keeps that as a steady level next season, he will have much more value in any potential trade.
Also, a minor pet peeve, but I don't like it when people say "won't happen." I always think to myself, "how the heck do you know?" It might be unlikely to happen, or maybe it doesn't make sense to you, but unless you can predict the future, you're not adding anything to the discussion by simply saying, "No."
This is why I give you people money.
Here's the version I favor: Halladay to the Mets, in exchange for Wells to the Mets. Period.
Why should the Mets have to give up anything beyond the $20M per year? It's essentially a cash deal, where the Mets pay the Jays $100M for Halladay and Wells. When you phrase it that way, it doesn't sound as stupid for the Jays, and it's obvious that giving up any prospects on top of the cash would be way too much to ask.
It would be fascinating to watch the Commissioner's Office responsd to such a proposed deal. On the one hand, they'd hate it for being a pure cash transaction, and terrible PR. On the other, as a cautionary tale to teach owners the evils of big contracts, it's matchless.
Brandon Wood may be the best hitter left in the minors, and is stuck behind Figgins and (weirdly) Aybar. Also, Sean Rodriguez is stuck behind Kendrick. I'm sure they have a young pitcher or two to throw in, and they certainly have the money (and the need!) to use Halladay for 2009 and 2010.
With Scutaro hitting free agency and Rolen planning his next major injury, two young power-hitting infielders is exactly what Toronto needs in the middle of the lineup. If Marcum (and McGowan?) can get healthy, the Jays already have a great rotation even without Halladay.
Rodriguez has played 471 career games at SS if Wood needs to shift over to 3rd (he's played over 100 games there). A 2010 lineup including Rios, Hill, Lind, Wood, Snider, Rodriguez? Nice. Add JP Arencibia and Overbay would hit 9th! This lineup could hit any pitcher in the AL. Rotation of Romero, Marcum, McGowan, Richmond, and Cecil? Not too shabby.
That Ibanez contract remains a bad decision, but it looks like a good decision (because Ibanez is performing well), so they'll probably be more willing to ignore the wiser voices once again with Wells.
Wells could be expected to play better in the NL (like Ibanez has) but ~$123M for 1.5 seasons of Roy Halladay, pro-rated, is obviously wholly insane. It's a fun discussion, but who could afford to pay $82M a year for one (nonbulletproof) pitcher?
The Phillies would surely be right to part with any of their top prospects to land (just) Halladay, maybe all of them. This is not a team built to last, as even their one great player plays the wrong position for extended success. And in that sense, Ibanez fits right in too.
-Or swap him for Juan Pierre. Manny won't be around forever.
-Or swap him to Citi Group for naming rights to Rogers Centre. Canada Sucks Field, anyone?
The gap between payout and expected value, per MORP, is $93 million for 2010-2014 (tack on a few million for 2009 if you want). I'm pretty sure either that or the Zito deal circa 2008 is the highest figure in history for that calculation. $93 million isn't the Ollie Perez deal, or Juan Pierre's, or Gary Matthews'. It's all three in one. It breaks the known scale for "bad contracts."
That's why the proposal is remotely viable for the Blue Jays. I'm not saying this is going to happen; I'm saying that it could, and it's a deal that would make all the sense in the world for them.
Or just swap Wells straight up for Barry Zito in a pass-the-trash deal, and then try to get some real prospects back for Halladay?
The possibilities are endless.
Run at it a different way. What if we called it "Halladay and Wells for C prospect and Albert Pujols"? "Halladay and Wells for C prospect and Joe Mauer"? "Halladay and Wells for C prospect and Grady Sizemore"?
Hell, "40 starts of Halladay and Wells for C prospect and Halladay"?
If the Jays get out from under the Wells deal, they become players for any top-tier FA. Not guaranteeing they can get them, but looking at the trade that way has to make a difference, right?
And Cleveland and Toronto are about equally close to the East as to the Central so they could switch divisions. Toronto's average distance would go down slightly from 705 miles per team to 681 miles per team if they switched to a Cleveland-less Central division. Cleveland is actually closer to the other East teams than Toronto, but would see a slight increase from 515 miles per team to 641 miles per team.
So it isn't crazy from a geographic distribution. But obviously it wouldn't happen since MLB decides divisions. But I also don't think Wells and Halladay for nothing can happen either.
And all the people who claim that this article is baseless because of Wells ability to improve, that was addressed. You have to remember that they are in the AL East and have a significantly smaller margin for error than any other division in baseball. If you could build a team with a Wells' type of contract, surely he isn't a top 5 pick if you are just pulling positional players from the AL East.
They also have to deal with their economy vs. the dollar. As if they need another reason to make life in the AL East more difficult.