Baseball Prospectus 2001
contains Wilton projections for more than
800 hitters. Last week at ESPN.com,
we took a look at what Wilton projected
for the major categories, noting that the system projects a Triple Crown
for Alex Rodriguez and an RBI record for Todd Helton.
Now that Opening Day rosters have been set, let’s take a look at Wilton’s
book projections for the rookies who made their teams’ rosters, starting
with the AL. Next week at BP.com, we’ll have a look at all the players who
missed the cut for BP 2001 and still made Opening Day rosters.
In the American League:
Age TM AB BA OBP SLG EqA
David Eckstein 26 ANA 439 .237 .326 .321 .227
Shawn Wooten 28 ANA 391 .238 .289 .363 .219
Jay Gibbons 24 BAL 440 .293 .360 .480 .285
Jay Gibbons is a Rule 5 pick who made the Orioles’ roster. He’s a
hitter without much defensive value, but he’s a hell of a hitter.
He’s a sleeper Rookie of the Year candidate who needs a trade, preferably
of Delino DeShields, to get him at-bats.
Age TM AB BA OBP SLG EqA
Mike Kinkade 28 BAL 306 .248 .309 .373 .235
Josh Paul 26 CHW 226 .235 .285 .327 .204
Julio Ramirez 23 CHW 412 .235 .286 .350 .216
John McDonald 26 CLE 330 .255 .305 .309 .205
Javier Cardona 25 DET 301 .249 .298 .412 .240
Jermaine Clark 24 DET 431 .262 .351 .350 .252
Brandon Inge 24 DET 370 .227 .278 .357 .215
The loss of Mitch Meluskey sets up an interesting situation in
Detroit, where the Tigers open the season using two catchers with a
combined 40 major-league at-bats coming into the season. Javier
Cardona is the more advanced player, while Brandon Inge is the
better long-term prospect. Neither will make Randy Smith feel better about
losing Meluskey, not this year, anyway.
The other Tiger rookie is Rule 5 second baseman Jermaine Clark. The
Tigers are committed to Damion Easley for the next few years, so
getting Clark ABs will be a problem. He could force his way into the
third-base picture if Dean Palmer‘s shoulder continues to restrict
him to DH.
Age TM AB BA OBP SLG EqA
Dee Brown 23 KC 490 .265 .336 .439 .259
Luis Rivas 21 MIN 497 .266 .314 .374 .229
Brian Buchanan 27 MIN 365 .238 .296 .386 .226
Michael Coleman 25 NY 305 .266 .323 .492 .266 (Cincinnati)
D'Angelo Jimenez 23 NY 276 .268 .346 .280 .253
Scott Seabol 26 NY 428 .238 .290 .390 .230
Jose Ortiz 24 OAK 429 .275 .331 .420 .260
Jose Ortiz is the second-best position-player candidate for Rookie
of the Year (to Ichiro Suzuki), because opportunity means as much as
ability in that fight. As you can see, he doesn’t project as a star this
year, although his peak should be quite impressive.
Age TM AB BA OBP SLG EqA
Anthony Sanders 27 SEA 389 .231 .383 .353 .220
Ichiro Suzuki 27 SEA 455 .312 .368 .459 .287
That’s exactly what the Mariners could use, but just based on early
appearances, Suzuki doesn’t seem real likely to slug .459. He may have a
large first-half/second-half split as he adjusts to baseball on this side
of the Pacific.
Age TM AB BA OBP SLG EqA
Bo Porter 28 TEX 444 .241 .341 .367 .240
Ryan Freel 25 TOR 285 .256 .331 .393 .250
Prospect turned utility player Ryan Freel is almost certainly the
Blue Jays’ best option at second base. Incumbent Homer Bush projects
to a .235 EqA, and none of the organization’s middle-infield prospects is
ready to make the jump to the majors yet.
We’ll check out the NL’s rookie projections later this week.
Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Contact him by
clicking here.
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