Notice: Trying to get property 'display_name' of non-object in /var/www/html/wp-content/plugins/wordpress-seo/src/generators/schema/article.php on line 52
keyboard_arrow_uptop
searchcloseSEARCH

Future Shock: Top 101 Prospects

March 3, 2010

Kevin Goldstein has ranked the top 11 prospects in each of the 30 major-league organizations. Now, he ranks baseball's top 101 prospects.

  1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals
  2. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
  3. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers
  4. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
  5. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
  6. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
  7. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
  8. Carlos Santana, C, Indians
  9. Buster Posey, C, Giants
  10. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds
  11. Chris Carter, 1B,  Athletics
  12. Dustin Ackley, OF/2B, Mariners
  13. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays
  14. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Red Sox
  15. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
  16. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Blue Jays
  17. Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers
  18. Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles
  19. Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
  20. Michael Taylor, OF, Athletics
  21. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants
  22. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Rockies
  23. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Rockies
  24. Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies
  25. Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers
  26. Aaron Hicks, of, Twins
  27. Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers
  28. Derek Norris, C, Nationals
  29. Donovan Tate, OF, Padres
  30. Casey Kelly, RHP, Red Sox
  31. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs
  32. Casey Crosby, LHP, Tigers
  33. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves
  34. Wade Davis, RHP, Rays
  35. Miguel Sano, SS, Twins
  36. Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals
  37. Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
  38. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals
  39. Josh Bell, 3B, Orioles
  40. Chris Withrow, RHP, Dodgers
  41. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays
  42. Alex Colome, LHP, Rays
  43. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians
  44. Brett Wallace, 1B, Blue Jays
  45. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves
  46. Ben Revere, OF, Twins
  47. Simon Castro, RHP, Padres
  48. Jennry Mejia, RHP, Mets
  49. Austin Jackson, of, Tigers
  50. Logan Morrison, 1B, Marlins
  51. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
  52. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Diamondbacks
  53. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
  54. Aaron Crow, RHP, Royals
  55. Dan Hudson, RHP, White Sox
  56. Tim Beckham, SS, Rays
  57. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Tigers
  58. Josh Reddick, OF, Red Sox
  59. Mike Leake, RHP, Reds
  60. Drew Storen, RHP, Nationals
  61. Jared Mitchell, OF, White Sox
  62. Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners
  63. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Cubs
  64. James Darnell, 3B, Padres
  65. Wilson Ramos, C, Twins
  66. Michael Inoa, RHP, Athletics
  67. Todd Frazier, 2B, Reds
  68. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Rangers
  69. Reid Brignac, SS, Rays
  70. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Orioles
  71. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Twins
  72. Tyler Flowers, C, White Sox
  73. Zach Britton, RHP, Orioles
  74. Jaff Decker, OF, Padres
  75. Tony Sanchez, C, Pirates
  76. Ryan Kalish, OF, Red Sox
  77. Alex White, RHP, Indians
  78. Phillippe Aumount, RHP, Phillies
  79. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
  80. Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets
  81. Hank Conger, C, Angels
  82. Jason Knapp, RHP, Indians
  83. Wil Myers, C, Royals
  84. Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets
  85. Brandon Allen, 1B, Diamondbacks
  86. Grant Green, SS, Athletics
  87. Ike Davis, 1B, Mets
  88. Zach Wheeler, RHP, Giants
  89. Jordan Walden, RHP, Angels
  90. Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates
  91. Nick Hagadone, LHP, Indians
  92. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Angels
  93. Tim Melville, RHP, Royals
  94. Gabriel Noriega, SS, Mariners
  95. Fabio Martinez, RHP, Angels
  96. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs
  97. Jio Mier, SS, Astros
  98. Ethan Martin, RHP, Dodgers
  99. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Brewers
  100. Jason Castro, C, Astros
  101. Danny Espinosa, SS, Nationals

Thank you for reading

This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.

Subscribe now

Kevin Goldstein

 

Latest Articles

You need to be logged in to comment. Login or Subscribe
leites
3/03
Thanks! Curious why Gabriel Noriega ranked ahead of Jio Mier.
Reply to leites
dianagramr
3/03
As a public service, here are the counts by organization:
Rays 7
Angels 5
Indians 5
Royals 5
Twins 5
A's 4
Braves 4
Cubs 4
Mets 4
Nats 4
O's 4
Padres 4
Rangers 4
Red Sox 4
Tigers 4
Dodgers 3
Giants 3
Mariners3
Pirates 3
Reds 3
WhiteSox3
Astros 2
BlueJays2
Brewers 2
D'backs 2
Marlins 2
Phils 2
Rockies 2
Cards 1
Yankees 1
Reply to dianagramr
derekv
3/03
Well played.
Reply to derekv
sunpar
3/03
Using a quick, simple (and bad) scoring system where Strasburg=101 points, Heyward=100 points, Espinosa=1 point, etc. here are the ranking.

Rays 452
Rangers 305
Braves 277
Twins 267
Tigers 245
Red Sox 230
Nationals 218
Indians 209
Orioles 208
Padres 194
Giants 188
Cubs 181
Reds 170
Royals 165
Rockies 159
Marlins 149
Blue Jays 144
Dodgers 141
Mariners 138
Pirates 135
Athletics 134
White Sox 118
Mets 109
Phillies 102
Angels 100
Yankees 98
Athletics 91
Brewers 86
Diamondbacks 67
Cardinals 64
Astros 7
Reply to sunpar
jessehoffins
3/03
Not very useful. Is logan morrison 50 times better than espinosa? Would you really trade 10 guys in the 80's-90s for strasburg?
Reply to jessehoffins
preams
3/03
I don't know...ten Danny Espinozas for one Strasburg might be a better deal for the team that got Strasburg.
Reply to preams
fawcettb
3/04
Yes, probably.
Reply to fawcettb
ItShouldBeEasy
3/03
I'm really interested in seeing how much each of these teams has spent on the draft + international signings over the past three years. I would expect a strong correlation!
Reply to ItShouldBeEasy
siteanalytics
3/03
Can I add 91 to 134 to get the A's total score?
Reply to siteanalytics
dianagramr
3/03
And here are the counts by position:
RHP 31
OF 19
LHP 12
SS 12
C 10
1B 7
3B 6
2B 3
OF/2B 1
Reply to dianagramr
davejsch
3/03
This is interesting, but not completely suprising. We see a combination of the defensive spectrum and pitching. I wonder how the OF prospects would break down LF/CF/RF now, and when they actually make the bigs.
Reply to davejsch
mikehollman
3/04
Count Z Britton as a LHP
Reply to mikehollman
markjstachura
3/03
What about Jeff?
Reply to markjstachura
offbase99
3/03
My guess is that Matusz at 18 is probably the most controversial selection on this list, although it's consistent with KG's methodology. (Personally, I have him as a no-doubt-about-it top 5, but I understand the upside argument against him.)

The one I'm having a harder time figuring out is how Posey fell all the way to #9.
Reply to offbase99
James282
3/03
Thanks Kevin! So if Morrow ranks above Kyle Drabek on the Blue Jays list, would you consider him a top 15 prospect? Seems like a stretch.
Reply to James282
thesonofhob
3/04
I do believe that Morrow was a pretty decent prospect in his day, but I think you have to evaluate actual major leaguers differently than just prospects. Youngsters already in the Majors have already "made it". Morrow may not have the ceiling that Drabek has (or maybe he does, that's besides my point), but since he's already got major league experience his floor is much much higher considering there is always the chance however small that Drabek could flame out before reaching the majors. So Morrow's expected value is greater than Drabek's even if his potential talent level may be less.
Reply to thesonofhob
thevarmitcong
3/03
Kevin, how often do you argue with KLaw about this sort of thing? I notice, for example, that you have Starlin Castro 37th while Law has him up at 12th. I know you have your reservations, but that's a pretty big disparity.
Reply to thevarmitcong
mikeduin
3/03
Another big one - Kevin has Pedro Alvarez at #6, Baseball America has him at #8, and Keith Law has him at....#35? ...????
Reply to mikeduin
amosap
3/03
I think you guys are reading too much into rankings. To be grouped with the top few dozen prospects in the game is a lot more significant than where you rank among those small handful.
Reply to amosap
Richie
3/03
Dianagram, while you're feeling ambitious, maybe a points system? 100 points for #1 Strasburg, 99 for #2 Heyward, and so on.

Yes, I'm too lazy to do stuff on my own.
Reply to Richie
dianagramr
3/03
Are you suggested an "average rating" by team/position. If so, I would reply "small sample size"
Reply to dianagramr
dianagramr
3/03
and I would also suggest that there might be valleys of difference between slots 1 & 2, than between slots 73 & 74 (for example)
Reply to dianagramr
kgoldstein
3/03
What she said. That's the big thing. I see a question in here about having one guy ahead of another when both are in the 90s. I wouldn't get too worked up about something like that.
Reply to kgoldstein
raygu1
3/03
KG-thanks for the list. I am surprised with how high you rank Dee Gordon. Hopefully, you can answer in today's chat why you rank him so high.
Is 2012 when he should be ready for the bigs?
Reply to raygu1
dianagramr
3/03
Here is the list with team, count, and average rank (the lower the better)

Angels 5 82.0
Astros 2 98.5
A's 4 45.8
BlueJays2 30.0
Braves 4 32.8
Brewers 2 59.0
Cards 1 38.0
Cubs 4 56.8
D'backs 2 68.5
Dodgers 3 55.0
Giants 3 39.3
Indians 5 60.2
Mariners3 56.0
Marlins 2 27.5
Mets 4 74.8
Nats 4 47.5
Orioles 4 50.0
Padres 4 53.5
Phillies2 51.0
Pirates 3 57.0
Rangers 4 25.8
Rays 7 37.4
Red Sox 4 44.5
Reds 3 45.3
Rockies 2 22.5
Royals 5 69.0
Tigers 4 40.8
Twins 5 48.6
WhiteSox3 62.7
Yankees 1 4.0

(yeah, I should probably add standard deviation) :-)
Reply to dianagramr
Robmoore
3/03
What do you think of doing a Top-101 under 25, like you do for each individual team's Top 11?
Reply to Robmoore
modofacid
3/03
I would love to see this
Reply to modofacid
kgoldstein
3/03
A LOT LOT LOT of people are asking this, so it would be bad to say no. I'm trying to figure out the best way to do it, but you'll see it before spring training is over.
Reply to kgoldstein
ruben398
3/03
Ooh, let the Strasburg vs. Mauer vs. Longoria vs. Lincecum debate begin!

Good luck with that list, Kevin. It's going to be a tough one!
Reply to ruben398
aquavator44
3/09
Mauer's 26, otherwise, that's a good debate.
Reply to aquavator44
RFKRFK
3/04
Well, you sort of started the list when you did your "Top 20 of the New Decade" article...
Reply to RFKRFK
hessshaun
3/04
That would be very interesting. There are so many players, I wouldn't mind that being broken up by division or even league. It's like a kid at a candy store. Obviously by division 101 wouldn't be feasible, but you could rank to irrelevancy. It would be interesting to see where the most young talent is versus what we know to be quality divisions.
Reply to hessshaun
crperry13
3/03
Wow. The Astros suck. Still.
Reply to crperry13
ZacharyRD
3/03
Huge props to the people in this comment thread for doing some of the interesting number crunching - that was what I was actually looking for when I opened the article in the first place.
Reply to ZacharyRD
dianagramr
3/03
You are welcome ...

(data analyst by day) :-)
Reply to dianagramr
ZacharyRD
3/03
PECOTA error: Michael Taylor is a Phillie when I click on his name and an A in this article.
Reply to ZacharyRD
NathanJM
3/03
My hunch is that's because the link takes you to his 2009 projection (when he WAS a Phillie). It looks like the team is correct on the 2010 beta cards.
Reply to NathanJM
dpease
3/03
this is correct--we haven't updated the linker to point at 2010 cards yet. will do so soon. thanks.
Reply to dpease
cavebird
3/03
Interesting list. Very different in many respects from many of the other lists. As a Braves fan and devoted fan of the Second Coming, I take offense at Strasburg being ranked higher than Heyward, but as they are the consensus 1-2 everywhere, I guess I can't gripe that much for your getting the order wrong.

I guess the players that surprise me in relation to other lists are Matusz (lower than most places), Chapman (higher than most places), Bumgarner (lower), Domonic Brown (lower), Teheran (higher), Starlin Castro (lower), Revere (higher), Vizcaino (higher), and Hak-Ju Lee (higher). Kevin, do you think that this is due to some philosophical difference between you and other people or entities that issue prospect lists or just individual player evaluations? Since I know the Braves the best, I will note that you, unlike most, rank Teheran and Vizcaino ahead of Freeman. While both have electric stuff, very young pitchers are notoriously unreliable due to injury and other factors. Maybe you are more of an upside guy?
Reply to cavebird
cavebird
3/04
Wow guys, I got hide rated for that? I asked a serious question about his method and reasoning for ranking prospects. I half expected some type of response.

For future reference, if you hide-rated my comment and wouldn't mind, please tell me why so I can no to avoid making such comments in the future.

Reply to cavebird
jjaffe
3/05
Kevin is King Upside. See http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=717 for more about his methodology.
Reply to jjaffe
Richie
3/03
Likewise, much much thanks, Dianagram!
Reply to Richie
jayhook62
3/03
Where would Grant Desme fit on this list?
Reply to jayhook62
louisma
3/03
Well, given that Catholics believe that no one is greater than God, I assume that Desme would be no higher than #2 on this list. . .
Reply to louisma
bsballfoo87
3/03
Rankings are the same as the book; the only changes are that Desme (ranked 66th) has been removed, and Chapman (not in the book) is now on the list.
Reply to bsballfoo87
ramjam36
3/03
Thanks a lot Kevin...much appreciated.
Reply to ramjam36
mymrbig
3/03
What's one of your nicknames again, Velo King or something like that? Seems fitting with your rankings of Teheran, Shelby Miller, Withrow, Colome, Vizcaino, Mejia, and Martin!

Thanks for the list, good stuff.
Reply to mymrbig
benharris
3/04
I believe it's "Velo Whore." Much more entertaining than King, and something only a baseball scout could come up with.
Reply to benharris
bowerpower
3/03
Thanks for the chat today. Those can be just as useful as lists or prospect write-ups.
Reply to bowerpower
rweiler
3/04
The question I really want answered is how was Madison Bumgarner's velocity today?
Reply to rweiler
duffke
3/04
KLaw said it was 87-88 in the second inning today.
Reply to duffke
hotstatrat
3/04
This isn't meant as a criticism - I am absolutely awed by Kevin's work - just an interesting irony . . .

Based on my casual observation of the progress and statistical levels achieved by minor leaguers, the two most surprisingly high ranks in this top 20 are both first-basemen: Carter and Smoak. Yet, Kevin is apparently perceived as being extraordinarily tough on first-base prospects.
Reply to hotstatrat
mymrbig
3/05
Kevin, you should "update" this list on April 1st. Make no changes to the list with the sole exception of dropping Logan Morrison off the list and replace him with whomever his roommate is. That would be fun.
Reply to mymrbig
mymrbig
3/09
To those giving me a negative rating, this was a joke. Logan Morrison was all over KG via Twitter about ranking him #50, so I was suggesting this as an April Fool's joke aimed back at Logan.
Reply to mymrbig
KHolmes
3/09
The Yanks turned two guys on the list (#45 and 49) into regulars - the above seems harsh about their system.
Reply to KHolmes
metsRok
3/13
Am I missing something... why is Chris Sale MIA here?
Reply to metsRok
metsRok
3/13
nevermind :)
Reply to metsRok