As part of last week’s Prospects on the Bubble series, we looked at hitters who had played full seasons at advanced Class-A as 17- or 18-year-olds. A number of readers asked about pitchers who have done the same thing, and the results (using a minimum of 100 innings pitched) are significantly less impressive in terms of both quantity and quality.
The hitters group was headlined by Hall of Famers Cal Ripken Jr. and Roberto Alomar and featured three others—Tim Raines, Ivan Rodriguez, and Gary Sheffield—who posted career WARPs over 50 and had legitimate Cooperstown cases themselves. The amount of major-league success achieved by the precocious pitchers pales in comparison, as only Dwight Gooden was able to earn more than 50 career WARP.
Pitchers <= Age 18 with >= 100 IP in Advanced Class A Since 1979
|
Yr |
Org |
League |
Results |
||
|
1979 |
18 |
LAA |
CAL |
||
|
1980 |
18 |
BAL |
FSL |
||
|
1980 |
18 |
PHI |
CAR |
||
|
1981 |
18 |
BAL |
FSL |
||
|
1983 |
18 |
NYA |
FSL |
||
|
Dwight Gooden |
1983 |
18 |
NYN |
CAR |
|
|
1984 |
18 |
BOS |
FSL |
||
|
1984 |
17 |
SDN |
CAL |
||
|
1986 |
18 |
LAN |
CAL |
||
|
1988 |
18 |
LAN |
FSL |
||
|
1992 |
18 |
LAN |
CAL |
||
|
1994 |
17 |
LAN |
CAL |
||
|
Kym Ashworth |
1995 |
18 |
LAN |
CAL |
|
|
1995 |
18 |
LAN |
CAL |
||
|
1998 |
18 |
SLN |
CAR |
||
|
2000 |
18 |
SFN |
CAL |
||
|
2000 |
18 |
BAL |
CAR |
||
|
2003 |
18 |
LAN |
FSL |
CAL = California League; CAR = Carolina League; FSL = Florida State League.
Miller and Pivaral succumbed to shoulder injuries, while Ashworth and Sequea simply didn’t develop, but the other 13 pitchers all reached the major leagues. Not surprisingly, that 23.5 percent attrition rate is significantly higher than that of the position players (4.5 percent) examined in last week’s article.
|
Yrs |
Results |
||
|
Gooden |
16 |
52.0 |
|
|
Rijo |
14 |
38.6 |
|
|
Martinez |
14 |
20.8 |
|
|
Davis |
13 |
15.7 |
|
|
Witt |
12 |
10.9 |
|
|
Ankiel |
3 |
5.3 |
|
|
Smith |
8 |
3.9 |
|
|
Oliveras |
4 |
0.6 |
|
|
Williams |
6 |
0.2 |
|
|
Mitchell |
5 |
0.2 |
|
|
Sierra |
1 |
0.1 |
|
|
Knackert |
2 |
-0.1 |
|
|
Gorecki |
2 |
-0.2 |
For the pitchers whose ascensions were not ended prematurely by injuries, were there any indicators in their age-18 seasons that foretold their future success?
Gooden (2.68), Rijo (3.53), and Ankiel (4.76) posted the top three strikeout-to-walk ratios in the group, but two pitchers who ranked among the top five in career WARP, Martinez (1.24) and Witt (1.34), ranked last and third-from-last, respectively. Martinez and Witt both pitched in the high-offense California League, a much less forgiving environment than the Carolina and Florida State Leagues. Given the disparities between the leagues, perhaps it’s better to look at each pitcher’s performance relative to league average:
|
|
|
|
Statistics Relative to League Average |
||||||||
|
Yr |
League |
H/9 |
HR/9 |
BR/9 |
SO/9 |
BB/9 |
SO/BB |
||||
|
Witt |
1979 |
CAL |
-23% |
-20% |
-9% |
-13% |
-43% |
-9% |
-21% |
-1% |
-22% |
|
Davis |
1980 |
FSL |
-17% |
-25% |
0% |
-13% |
+36% |
0% |
-9% |
+24% |
+20% |
|
Smith |
1980 |
CAR |
+20% |
+20% |
+25% |
+30% |
+5% |
+25% |
+11% |
+16% |
+33% |
|
Oliveras |
1981 |
FSL |
-19% |
-13% |
-4% |
-2% |
-36% |
-4% |
+5% |
-7% |
-2% |
|
Rijo |
1983 |
FSL |
+46% |
+47% |
+22% |
+13% |
-10% |
+22% |
+20% |
+40% |
+98% |
|
Gooden |
1983 |
CAR |
+35% |
+42% |
+13% |
+33% |
+27% |
+13% |
+85% |
-25% |
+48% |
|
Sierra |
1984 |
CAL |
-18% |
-8% |
-2% |
-11% |
-21% |
-3% |
-4% |
+13% |
+10% |
|
Mitchell |
1984 |
FSL |
+8% |
+7% |
+15% |
+8% |
-58% |
+15% |
-12% |
+28% |
+23% |
|
Martinez |
1986 |
CAL |
-18% |
-24% |
-16% |
-12% |
+55% |
-16% |
-2% |
-25% |
-21% |
|
Knackert |
1988 |
FSL |
-11% |
-1% |
-3% |
-8% |
+7% |
-4% |
-23% |
+9% |
+15% |
|
Gorecki |
1992 |
CAL |
-1% |
+4% |
-12% |
+7% |
-48% |
-12% |
+20% |
-56% |
-23% |
|
Ashworth |
1994 |
CAL |
-2% |
+6% |
+4% |
+10% |
+14% |
-5% |
+3% |
-41% |
-27% |
|
Ashworth |
1995 |
CAL |
+14% |
+14% |
-4% |
-9% |
+14% |
-3% |
-1% |
-35% |
-25% |
|
Ankiel |
1998 |
CAR |
+23% |
+25% |
+21% |
+23% |
+14% |
+21% |
+66% |
+13% |
+90% |
|
Williams |
2000 |
CAL |
+33% |
+29% |
+25% |
+30% |
+38% |
+25% |
+8% |
+16% |
+29% |
|
Sequea |
2000 |
CAR |
-31% |
-25% |
-6% |
-2% |
-27% |
-2% |
-9% |
-15% |
-21% |
So much for that. Even when compared to league averages, Witt and Martinez rank toward the bottom in nearly every category, while pitchers who experienced less major-league success (Smith, Williams, etc.) are found near the top.
* * *
As pitchers get closer to the major leagues, one would expect the predictive value of their performances to become more reliable. With that in mind, let’s look at players who threw at least 100 innings as either 19-year-olds in Double-A or 20-year-olds in Triple-A, a group that consists of 35 distinct pitchers and 43 seasons:
Pitchers Who Have Accumulated >= 100 IP in Double-A at Age 19 or Triple-A at Age 20
|
Yr |
Org |
League |
Results |
||
|
1979 |
20 |
PHI |
AA |
||
|
1979 |
20 |
MON |
AA |
||
|
1979 |
20 |
NYN |
IL |
||
|
1979 |
19 |
OAK |
PCL |
||
|
1979 |
19 |
OAK |
EL |
||
|
1979 |
19 |
OAK |
EL |
||
|
1979 |
19 |
CHA |
SL |
||
|
1979 |
19 |
KCA |
SL |
||
|
Rich Barnes |
1980 |
20 |
CHA |
AA |
|
|
Mike Morgan |
1980 |
20 |
OAK |
PCL |
|
|
1980 |
19 |
PHI |
EL |
||
|
Roy Smith |
1981 |
19 |
PHI |
EL |
|
|
Storm Davis |
1981 |
19 |
BAL |
SL |
|
|
Francisco Oliveras |
1982 |
19 |
BAL |
SL |
|
|
1983 |
20 |
CHN |
AA |
||
|
1983 |
19 |
SFN |
TL |
||
|
Mark Grant |
1984 |
20 |
SFN |
PCL |
|
|
Jose Rijo |
1985 |
20 |
OAK |
PCL |
|
|
John Mitchell |
1985 |
19 |
BOS |
EL |
|
|
1986 |
20 |
CHN |
AA |
||
|
John Mitchell |
1986 |
20 |
NYN |
IL |
|
|
1990 |
19 |
OAK |
SL |
||
|
1992 |
20 |
LAN |
PCL |
||
|
Rick Gorecki |
1993 |
19 |
LAN |
TL |
|
|
Rick Gorecki |
1994 |
20 |
LAN |
PCL |
|
|
1995 |
19 |
TOR |
SL |
||
|
Jose Pett |
1996 |
20 |
TOR |
IL |
|
|
1997 |
20 |
TOR |
IL |
||
|
1999 |
20 |
ATL |
IL |
||
|
1999 |
19 |
BAL |
EL |
||
|
1999 |
19 |
SEA |
EL |
||
|
1999 |
19 |
DET |
SL |
||
|
2000 |
20 |
CHN |
IL |
||
|
Ryan Anderson |
2000 |
20 |
SEA |
PCL |
|
|
2001 |
20 |
CHN |
PCL |
||
|
Jerome Williams |
2001 |
19 |
SFN |
TL |
|
|
Jerome Williams |
2002 |
20 |
SFN |
PCL |
|
|
2003 |
20 |
ARI |
PCL |
||
|
2003 |
19 |
LAN |
SL |
||
|
2005 |
20 |
SFN |
PCL |
||
|
2010 |
19 |
HOU |
TL |
||
|
2011 |
20 |
ATL |
IL |
AA = American Association (AAA); IL = International League (AAA); PCL = Pacific Coast League (AAA); EL = Eastern League (AA); SL = Southern League (AA); TL = Texas League (AA).
Not surprisingly, the majority (91 percent) of the players to perform as 19-year-olds in Double-A or 20-year-olds in Triple-A reached the major leagues. Ryan Anderson and Jose Pett fell victim to chronic injuries, while Alan Webb found himself pitching in the independent Northern League by the time he was 21.
This group produced two sure-fire Hall of Famers in Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez, as well as Roy Halladay, who could find himself enshrined in Cooperstown with a few more Cy Young-caliber seasons. Several pitchers are still active, but as things currently stand:
Career WARP for Pitchers Who Have Accumulated >= 100 IP in Double-A at Age 19 or Triple-A at Age 20
|
Group |
Ct |
Notables |
|
|
>= 50 Career WARP |
2 |
6% |
Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez |
|
10-49 Career WARP |
6 |
17% |
Jose Rijo, Roy Halladay, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Cain, Jon Garland |
|
0-9.9 Career WARP |
20 |
57% |
Mark Davis, Mike Morgan, Edwin Jackson, Jerome Williams, Jordan Lyles |
|
< 0 Career WARP |
4 |
11% |
Julio Teheran, Rick Gorecki, Ruben Quevedo, Matt Riley |
|
DNP Major Leagues |
3 |
9% |
Ryan Anderson, Jose Pett, Alan Webb |
The statistics produced by the pitchers in this group were largely irrelevant, not unlike those found in the advanced Class-A hurlers studied earlier. Six of the seven pitchers who struck out more than 8.5 batters per nine innings earned a WARP of at least 7.5, a group consisting of Pedro Martinez (67.8 WARP), Rijo (38.6), Zambrano (27.7), Cain (18.8), Davis (9.3), and Jackson (7.5). You can download a spreadsheet (.xls) that details each player’s performance here (.csv).
* * *
What can pitcher performance relative to league and age tell us? As it turns out, very little. Pitchers who get promoted early have a reasonable chance of reaching the major leagues, as their youth will afford them plenty of opportunities assuming their arms don’t fall off, but the predictive value of the numbers they produce is close to null. Every now and then, a Matt Riley will strike out more than a batter per inning with a shiny ERA and won-lost record as a 19-year-old in Double-A, while a Roy Halladay will struggle with his command as a 20-year-old in Triple-A.
Development is about making adjustments and responding to the adjustments made to you, and every player has his own developmental schedule. Carlos Zambrano was a valuable major-league contributor by the time he was 21, but Halladay wasn’t worth more than a single win above replacement until he was a 24-year-old in his fourth big-league season. At age 23, Zambrano spun a 4.9 WARP season, while Halladay went 4-7 with a 10.64 ERA in 67.2 major-league innings and wasn’t much better in Triple-A. Whose career would you prefer?
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I also didn't recall the Yanks have a young pitching prospect in the mid-80s named John Mitchell, and it turns out he was a Met. What happened to him?
Mitchell's strikeout rate plummeted when he got to AAA and it didn't improve in the big leagues. He became a victim of a numbers game in New York, as his stuff was less than that of other young hurlers (Gooden, Cone, Fernandez, etc.) they had on the roster. He pitched reasonably well for the Mets (4.08 ERA, 125.2 IP), but they dealt him to Baltimore after the 1989 season. He still couldn't strike anyone out in the AL, so he was back to the minors (and independent leagues) after 1990.