Doing a midseason prospect list is an exercise in managing hype and dealing with insufficient information. Half-seasons mean small sample sizes, and while I'm speaking to scouts on a daily basis, I'm often dealing with two or three looks instead of four or six. And then there is the information we don't have. So many of these players have earned midseason promotions, and that half-season at a new level will provide valuable information that for now we just have to do without. So, with the understanding that several changes between now and the official Top 101 in the offseason will take place, here's a snapshot of the Top 50 prospects in baseball. For eligibility purposes, players needed to still be in the minors as of July 1. Draftees from 2012 are not included.
Have a Kindle? Additional commentary on Kevin's Midseason Top 50 is available in The Call-Up 2012, our just-published midseason update to Baseball Prospectus 2012.
1. Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers (Preseason #4)
2. Wil Myers, OF, Royals (Preseason #19)
3. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles (Preseason #6)
4. Oscar Taveras, OF, Cardinals (Preseason #23)
5. Manny Machado, SS, Orioles (Preseason #8)
6. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Mariners (Preseason #14)
7. Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians (Preseason #17)
8. Travis d'Arnaud, C, Blue Jays (Preseason #16)
9. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Tigers (Preseason #71)
10. Billy Hamilton, SS, Reds (Preseason #22)
11. Mike Olt, 3B, Rangers (Preseason #45)
12. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pirates (Preseason #9)
13. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Marlins (Preseason #80)
14. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets (Preseason #30)
15. Javier Baez, SS, Cubs (Preseason #66)
16. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves (Preseason #5)
17. Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins (Preseason #12)
18. Archie Bradley, RHP, Diamondbacks (Preseason #37)
19. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Diamondbacks (Preseason #21)
20. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Royals (Preseason #47)
21. Bubba Starling, OF, Royals (Preseason #27)
22. Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins (Preseason #33)
23. Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees (Preseason #40)
24. Jorge Soler, OF, Cubs
25. Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets (Preseason #25)
26. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Blue Jays
27. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Mariners (Preseason #35)
28. Jackie Bradley, OF, Red Sox
29. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals (Preseason #10)
30. Jorge Bonifacio, OF, Royals
31. Austin Hedges, C, Padres (Preseason #94)
32. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates (Preseason #13)
33. Matt Barnes, RHP, Red Sox
34. Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Angels
35. Jacob Turner, RHP, Marlins (Preseason #15)
36. Mason Williams, OF, Yankees (Preseason #99)
37. Luis Heredia, RHP, Pirates (Preseason #42)
38. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies (Preseason #20)
39. Carlos Martinez, RHP, Cardinals (Preseason #31)
40. Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Astros (Preseason #73)
41. Daniel Norris, LHP, Blue Jays (Preseason #54)
42. Anthony Gose, OF, Blue Jays (Preseason #68)
43. Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals (Preseason #69)
44. Rymer Liriano, OF, Padres (Preseason #52)
45. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals (Preseason #26)
46. Trevor May, RHP, Phillies (Preseason #51)
47. Zach Lee, RHP, Dodgers (Preseason #70)
48. Chris Owings, SS, Diamondbacks
49. Matt Davidson, 3B, Diamondbacks
50. Dan Straily, RHP, Athletics
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Is it safe to assume defense is a significant factor in your ratings?
Therefore, if Bogarts was a SS his projected offensive skills would make him a considerable talent. But the further down the defensive spectrum he gets, the more he has to hit like Oscar Taveras to remain elite. So, this must mean that Bogarts' bat doesn't project as likely to become a first-division starter anymore if he can't play an elite defensive position.
(Just kidding, really. One counter-example does not an argument make, and Bogaerts doesn't have Braun's speed, for one thing. But you never know.)
However, it appears that 2012 draftees weren't eligible for the list. Add those players in, and May falls off.
Also, if I recall (from the podcast), I believe KG finalized this list a few weeks ago. It could be that the list became just a tiny bit stale as BP held on to it while finalizing the remainder of it's Call-Up product.
THE UNIVERSE MAKES NO SENSE.
For the record, I have no problem with the $4 supplementary product (other than frustration over it only being accessible on the Kindle platform). However, Joe Hamrahi (link below) promised that the list would be available here "as soon as we can publish it after the ebook is available."
Were this the case, the list would have been published on Monday. It seems to me, however, that the BP pageviews were kept high on Monday and Tuesday with the trading deadline content, so the decision was made to hold off on publishing this list so as to drive fresh traffic to the site. And while that is a perfectly reasonable business decision, it wasn't what had been promised. I recommend being a little more careful in what you promise.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?type=2&articleid=17651#118176
For the record, I'm playing devil's advocate. I don't care either way.
However, I'm not sure I'm responsible for considering every possible alternative to ensure 100% certainty. If I was wrong, I'd be happy for someone at BP to clarify, and I'll gladly apologize and retract my comment.
1. Olt some 30 spots ahead of Adams. Same age, one level down, vastly worse strikeout numbers.
2. Where's Eddie Rosario? His power is down, however he seems to be getting positive reviews at second, and has improved his strikeout/walk rate.
Are there extended reports within the book?
I'll definitely pickup a copy so I can learn more.
not ashamed
http://www.magcloud.com/
In other news, I have three of the top 10 (Myers, d'Arnaud, Castellanos) on my AL Scoresheet team. *flexes for Ryan and John*