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Reportedly acquired RHPs James Shields and Wade Davis from the Rays for OF-R Wil Myers, 3B-R Patrick Leonard, RHP Jake Odorizzi, and LHP Mike Montgomery. [12/9]
After a home run-heavy 2010 season, Shields changed his approach. He began pitching backward, a strategy that played to his strengths (his ability to throw strikes with his impressive secondary offerings) and downplayed his weaknesses (his fastball). The shift led to a breakout 2011 season and a solid 2012, though he did struggle at times throughout the first half. His best asset is his durability. He’s never been to the disabled list during his big league career and is as close as it gets to a safe bet to top 200 innings annually. In addition to the on-the-field value as a no. 2 starter, Shields receives high marks for his qualitative value as a tireless worker and good teammate. He’s under contract through the 2014 season.
Davis moved to the bullpen last year after two full campaigns in the Rays rotation. His results improved, but it’s unclear how much of the improvement stemmed from improved velocity versus a changed mindset. Davis attacked batters with a three-pitch mix—a fastball that touched into the upper-90s, a curveball, and a cutter—and that resulted in better interplay. The Royals’ plans for Davis are unknown. An options-laden deal has him under contract, potentially, through the 2017 season.
One of the unfortunate parts of any trade, particularly this one, is the need for instant gratification. Shields and Davis are solid pitchers capable of helping the Royals win. Whether the Royals should have made this trade is debatable, but do not confuse that argument by making Shields and Davis into punch lines. They’re better than that. —R.J. Anderson
Reportedly acquired OF-R Wil Myers, 3B-R Patrick Leonard, RHP Jake Odorizzi, and LHP Mike Montgomery from the Royals for RHPs James Shields and Wade Davis. [12/9]
From a prospect perspective, this deal is expensive, but let’s not buy stock in the narrative that suggests the Royals traded away their entire farm system for the goat in the box. The Royals received a major-league haul which might turn to sand in two years, but the return was of major-league quality; Shields was one of the hotter names on the market this off-season. That’s not to suggest that Shields was the best fit for the Royals needs in the present, just that he was a hot commodity that a queue of teams were salivating to acquire and the Royals were the ones to pull it off. Call it a foolish and short-sighted trade executed to save the jobs of the front office and placate an angry fan base that would rather win 77 games than 72, but the Royals did in fact acquire the level of pitcher they sought out to acquire. But at what price?
The main target in the trade was Wil Myers, the top prospect in the Royals’ system and a top 10 overall prospect in baseball. I’ve been watching Myers since he signed, starting in the fall instructional leagues and at every stop along the way. The skill-set is very impressive with plus grades on both the hit tool and the power; the arm is another plus tool, which gives him a weapon in the outfield. Myers isn’t a sacred cow of the prospect world, though, despite being named Player of the Year by multiple publications. First of all, he’s a corner outfielder, which can be found in more abundance than no. 1 starters or premium up-the-middle talents. He’s highly respected and every organization would gladly put a uniform on his back, but a Jurickson Profar or Dylan Bundy he is not.
Secondly, and most importantly from a scouting standpoint, Myers doesn’t project to be a superstar, at least as far as I’m concerned. Again, highly skilled and one hell of a prospect, but the offensive tools aren’t so crazy that Myers was considered untouchable or a slam-dunk MVP candidate at the highest level. A realistic projection might peg him as a first-division talent or perhaps as an All-Star in his peak years. The tools aren’t so loud or the holes not so small, however, that Myers will develop into the next Mike Trout or hit the ball so hard and so often that he can cure incurable diseases with his offensive stroke. He’s ripe with new-car smell and his sticker price is through the roof, but the reality is that Wil Myers is more likely to be a major league regular than he is a superstar.
The secondary prospect in the deal is Jake Odorizzi, a steady and surefire major league arm with a back-end starter floor and a slightly-better-than-back-end starter ceiling. The arsenal is solid-average across the board with some command hiccups that can retard said arsenal and cause it to play down. He’s athletic and competitive and will probably pitch in the majors for a very long time, but this isn’t a top-of-the-rotation arm, and he isn’t going to miraculously turn into one just because he now belongs to the Rays. He’s not in the same class as Myers, but a case can be made that he is in the back-end of the top 100 prospects in the game.
Patrick Leonard is a nice low-level bat to dream on, but he’s not a likely impact player at the highest level. He has good raw pop, but the hit tool doesn’t project to be above-average, so the profile doesn’t pack a big punch. Without an enormous ceiling, he’s more like a pleasant catnap than a fantasy dream, but he could develop into a usable player, which is the ultimate goal of the process.
Mike Montgomery was once the top prospect in the Royals’ system, but he fell apart in 2012 and ended up back at the Double-A level, where he looked very bad. His future is far from written, and a change of scenery and approach could benefit the southpaw; the hole he was digging for himself was being shoveled by his own mind and his own approach. It’s unlikely that he regains his once highly projectable form, but I wouldn’t rule out a major league role in some capacity at some point in his future. The raw arm is too good not to extract some major league value.
I’m not saying I would make this trade or that it wasn’t executed to save jobs or that a few extra wins won’t matter when you need 15 extra wins to compete, but I am saying that the Royals’ system can handle the hit. The system is very deep and features several impact-level prospects that are organizational currency, just like Myers and Odorizzi. Perhaps they will mature and cash out at the major league level or perhaps they will be used in a trade to acquire players of equal or greater value in order to help the major league team. This is why depth is so vital to the overall process, because even if this trade explodes in the Royals’ faces, they still have a healthy crop of talent growing towards the major league sun. —Jason Parks
(For more in-depth information on Myers, Odorrizi, and Montgomery, check out the recently released Royals Top 10 Prospect List.)
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Even if Myers isn't a star, you're trading six relatively cheap years of an above-average regular and occasional allstar who's big league ready. The return still seems mighty light, especially when you factor in the rest of what the Royals gave up and what they got back
I can't help but think of the Jesus Montero trade last winter when such displeasure was voiced amongst fans and similar expectations were placed on a seemingly big league ready prospect because of a potentially potent bat. Obviously any judgments on Montero, whom hit in a hellhole and was 22, would be wildly premature and I'm not saying that Myers can't do better of course, but from an offensive tools standpoint Montero was rated by most if not all publications/prospect evaluators just as highly as Myers currently is. It's a formidable challenge to produce as an above-average regular, especially from the jump, no matter how high your hit/power tools are rated/projected and a .260/.298/.386 line or anything close to it from a corner outfielder wouldn't cut it.
I'll take Montero.
Because this package should have brought more--MUCH more--than it did.
I normally might try to say that the Royals deserve the benefit of doubt -- maybe they know something we don't -- but there's absolutely nothing in Dayton Moore's trade history that indicates he knows anything at all that somebody else doesn't.
Moore made this trade for two more years of being a baseball GM. He won't get another job after this debacle of a trade. He is the Omar Minaya of the American League.
From Tampa Bay's standpoint, it will probably work out for them in the long run, but this would have been a good year for them to go for it all. I don't see New York or Boston winning 95 games this year, probably not even 90. Is Toronto now the divisional favorite?
http://www.eseduce.com/social-anxiety-disorder-trap-zack-greinke-societys-indifference/
Being anti-social basically means having an underdeveloped conscience and a general disregard for the rights and concerns of others.
Having social anxiety means feeling discomfort in social interactions due to over-sensitivity to the perception that they are judging you.
They are wholly and dramatically and extremely different things. This is an oversimplification, but: anti-social people don't care at all about what other people think, while those with social anxiety care way too much about what other people think.
Just to put this joke to bed, I'll rephrase it.
"Maybe the only reason Greinke developed was that his social anxiety disorder interfered with his ability to interact with bad Royals coaches :)"
The question is what Myers will do. If Myers is excellent, it's a huge loss; Myers is cost-controlled for a long-time. Even if he's just good, there's a lot of (performance-cost) profit to be made.
If the Royals don't contend in the next two years, it would be very hard to win this trade. Like a lot of people, I view this as an effort by Dayton Moore not to get fired; I'm not too convinced it will work. But I also agree that full garment-rending sobbing may not quite be called for.
Now check out the return TB got for Garza two years ago. Obviously Archer, Guyer, or Hak-Ju Lee could be closer to making a splash this season but as of now there has been virtually no favorable MLB impact of that trade yet for the Rays.
The Rays analytical skill set has thus far been built on 1) strong amatuer drafting enhanced by having high first-round picks for several years, 2) savvy, trades for non-stud prospect types (Zobrist, Joyce), and 3) playing the fungible market for relievers and serviceable first basemen. While the sample size is small, TB has yet to prove the ability to successfully convert medium-term valuable expiring assets like Garza and Shields (and eventually Price) into major pieces of a contending club.
They may very well turn out to do just that, but it's not a slam dunk and only time will tell.
Regarding the TB trade, people said the Cubs made a mistake.
You make the point that many of their previous prospects aren't panning out -- but that actually would make the trade worse as it means there's no chance the Royals compete next year.
The best case scenario for this trade for the Royals is that Hosmer and Moose hit like crazy -- and so the extra wins Shields and Davis bring on the pitching side have any real relevance.
This trade shows one of three things:
1) Possibly unjustified confidence in their young talent to mature in the next 1-2 years
2) A belief that if they don't win next year they are all fired
3) An intense desire to break over .500 for no apparent reason
Does anyone actually think that the Royals were just Shields and Davis away from being a contender in either 2013 or 2014? That's what this comes down to. If the Royals can compete when they have Shields, then fine - give up the prospects you need to, to compete. But if you think they're further away (like I do) then it doesn't make sense to put your chips in now, so to speak.
In addition, the idea that KC can't possibly compete this year is ridiculous. Even though "fluke" is written all over it, who amongst all of us geniuses pegged Baltimore for a wild card spot last year? With five playoff teams and the addition of a bunch of games against Houston this year, why not give it a shot? The Whitesox, Indians, and Twins aren't exactly entrenched contenders either. It's the weakest division in the AL. Should they wait for the experts to give them the "contender" stamp of approval before going for it?
Hell, if Hosmer OR Moose rebound, Escobar retains his offensive improvment, and you have Salvador Perez for a full season it is not a bad lineup at all when you already have Gordon and Butler.
Personally, I think the Rays player evaluation and roster management skills are outstanding and they have a much better track record than their KC counterparts. There is a good chance of TB coming out ahead after five years. I just think there is an overreaction to the negative side when looking at this deal from KCs perspective.
"ESPN's Keith Law called the deal a "heist" for Tampa Bay , and some chat board posters engaged in the inevitable potshots by force of habit. Friedman is revered among the armchair know-it-all crowd, and Kansas City GM Dayton Moore is a convenient punching bag, and this latest deal helped perpetuate that narrative.
If the five email responses I received from baseball executives late Sunday night are any indication, the reaction within the baseball industry is more nuanced.
"
http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story/_/id/8731880/baseball-executives-chime-their-thoughts-multiplayer-trade-involving-tampa-bay-rays-kansas-city-royals
If he is only a 2 win pitcher (ironically putting him alongside another Royal based on 2012 numbers, Bruce Chen), then your marginal upgrade is so minimal that I question if it is worth it.
The problem, is that Shields was worth less than 1 WARP last season and now at age 30, I question if he will ever improve beyond that.
I love the concept of the deal for the Royals....but they got the wrong starting pitcher. The Reds gave up less in prospects last off-season (Alonso, Grandal, Boxberger, and Volquez) and they managed to land a younger, cost-controlled, starting pitcher in Mat Latos from the Pardes.
Obviously this value is totally unquantifiable, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It certainly makes sense that a team with a lot of younger pitchers (Chen excluded) could benefit a lot from the presence of a veteran who has had success fulfilling his potential.
Not that anyone has to agree with that valuation, but food for thought.
Whether the Royals should have made this trade is debatable, but do not confuse that argument by making Shields and Davis into punch lines. They’re better than that. —R.J. Anderson
A Shields and a Davis do not just grow on trees no matter what weenie numbers are thrown out there. Is it Kershaw and Broxton (circa Cy young)? No, but that doesn't mean they suck.
This is why depth is so vital to the overall process, because even if this trade explodes in the Royals’ faces, they still have a healthy crop of talent growing towards the major league sun. —Jason Parks
Again, if someone who works in this avenue says the Royals can afford the deal, who cares? They are dealing from a position of depth and other teams are not simple because they do not have the embarrassment of riches.
In the grand scheme, the Royals are taking on roughly $9 million for a front line starter and a solid RP who might be more than that. That increases to roughly $16 next year. In what universe is that a rip off? Any team with a decent operating revenue would take that in a second.
Finally, as a fan of the game, I would like to say that I'll take this deal, any day of the week, over the "salary dump".
It's just a really well-executed salary dump.
They may be messing it up.
I know, I know. WILL MYERS. But I think that the analysis of his value here is pretty accurate. He will be good - he may be VERY good for a while. But he was not the kind of guy you hang on to at all costs, because he's going to be the savior of your franchise. If I thought that he was, I'd be screaming, too - and I suspect that is the knee-jerk reaction of a lot of Royals fans, because that's how he has been sold (or perhaps oversold). Would I have liked to have kept him? Sure. But folks are treating him like he was/is a guaranteed future Hall of Fame player. Time to dial that back a bit - or a lot.
The two questions for me that will determine the ultimate outcome of this trade are these: 1) Does Shields sign an extension at a reasonable rate to keep him in KC for another 2-3 years, and 2) is GMDM finished making moves now?
The Royals cannot afford to keep trotting Luke Hochevar out there every 5th day. He can look brilliant 3-4 times a year, and like a batting practice pitcher 10-12 times a year. So does Moore keep him, hoping yet again that he will find some consistency, does he give rotate guys he currently has in the #5 spot (including Davis), or does he go out and spend some more on a guy like Dempster? The Royals can also not afford to trot Jeff Francouer out there for 140 games if what we saw last year is the REAL Francouer. So what is Moore going to do about that now?
He can probably convince ownership to spring for one more deal - maybe. So do you sign another arm, or try to find a guy who can reliably hit and play right field (or left field, and move Gordon to RF)?
They can suck up a year of Frenchy, given the rest of the lineup. Plenty of small market teams win 90 games with one or more Frenchy-sized holes in their lineup. TB the last several years and the Padres a couple years ago both spring to mind. Small market teams can't go .500, let alone win 85+, with a MLB roster full of #5 starters.
Trying to stay positive, but it's hard. I agree with the post above that Myers should have brought a pitcher as good as Shields with more time left under the Royal's control or a better pitcher with only two years left. I think the Davis/Odorizzi is too even call with both under control for a significant timeframe and the jury is out Montgomery. Plus, I too wonder about the motivation to "just do something" to try and save jobs.
As with all major trades like this, only time will tell.
As a tongue-in-cheek comment, maybe this done by Moore to save Frenchy's starting spot.
This deal might not make them a playoff team. But bringing Myers up in 2013, getting a couple wins out of him per year until Butler is gone and Gordon is almost gone, then seeing him blossom in 2016 on a team that still has no pitching? That would not have gotten them anywhere either.
I think more scorn should be tossed on Moore for the Ervin Santana move--that $12 million is money he could have spent on a better SP on the market....or just set on fire for a better return. That move (and keeping Hochevar) causes a "payroll pinch" and backs them into a corner where they have to make a desperate move like this. But this desperate move might be the first reasonable one Moore has made in a few years.
To add to above, Royals also have 2 solid starters coming back from injury. Santana is like Sanchez last season - a roll of the dice. Moore is determined not to run out of starters again.
That said, it still isn't a great deal for the Royals. Givng Ryan Dempster a 3rd year, keeping Myers and binning Francouer is a better plan, as would be trading for and extending Dickey.
And yes, I do agree that getting someone like Dempster and swapping Franceour for Myers would've been better.
Also, Turner isn't what we thought he was. Shoulder injuries have taken their toll.
On the flipside, Myers is supposed to be ready next year and the Rays scored the least runs in the AL East while preventing the least runs in the AL East.. i.e. they needed to improve their offense and had some run prevention to spare.
As far as "continuing the way they have", they no longer trade prospects for middling veterans the way they did in the 80s. They've put a lot of emphasis on the farm system and for all the "Evil Empire" talk, a good chunk of their roster is homegrown (Jeter, Rivera, Pettite, Cano, Gardner, Hughes, etc.) No, they don't have a farm system like the Rays but their organization isn't in complete disarray like the Red Sox are either.
Some suggest that writing the big check for a FA would have prevented this. But no one has pointed out that we have a huge problem in KC that goes back to the early '90s labor tension when Glass was (after Ewing's death) a non-owner caretaker but one of two stridently anti-labor attack dogs for the owners. That still lingers with agents and any historically aware player, or one who is made aware by his agent. Add to that the chill of a free agent looking at the Royals and doubting their commitment to winning...It may NOT be that KC WON'T sign a free agent, but CAN'T get one worthy of #1-2-3 SP status.
Second, we went through years of having 1 or 2 major league players on the field alongside many AAA and AAAA types. Now, there are major league players at every position (incl/ DH) except RF and 2B. The pen has been outstanding. The need is for multiple SPs.
If management can't show Butler, Gordon, Alcides, Cain, Moose, Hosmer and Perez that they are committed, "six yrs of control" suddenly become 3 1/2 to 4 1/2...remember Greinke? So let's not only NOT count 6 yrs of control for Myers and Odorizzi, let's say that there are another 10 to 30 years of "control" at stake for those 7 legit regulars listed above. Will they stay?
The first long-term contract signed from this point forward among those 7 players that extends one (or more) of them from bailing out changes the equation of this trade DRASTICALLY. And that's a huge factor in the long-term competitive scenario that not one analyst I've seen has mentioned. Fan comments in KC are all over the place, many of them just negative knee-jerk reactions. Even on BP here, there is well-reasoned affirmation for the Royals' end as well as doubt. But the trade will pan out or fail in the long run for its cascade effect on our ability to retain those seven players named above ...and others.