Direct Links to Individual Player Reports
| Henry Owens | Joe Ross | Eduardo Rodriguez |
| Tyler Glasnow | Jameson Taillon | Max Fried |
| Courtney Hawkins | Nick Castellanos | Kevin Pillar |
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LHP |
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DOB: 07/21/1992 |
Height: 6’7’’ |
Bats: L |
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MLB ETA: 2015 |
Weight: 210 |
Throws: L |
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Current Team: High-A Salem |
Date(s) Seen: 07/11/2013 |
Date Filed: 7/18/2013 |
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Have Video? No |
How Acquired: 1st round sup; 2011 |
Filed By: Jason Parks |
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Mechanics |
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High ¾ slot; high leg; stays in the delivery and maintains a good line; arm drags a bit and he struggled to get over and finish pitches; stride was shorter than expected from 6’7’’ limby body; good release; looked easy enough. |
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#1 Pitch |
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Fastball worked 90-92 (T 93) early; dipped to 88-91 (T 92) by third inning; arrived softer than gun reading; lost angle when he didn’t get over it; missed arm-side and high; movement didn’t stand out; occasional sink when spotted low; would flatten out; didn’t see power pitch; body and arm should allow for more consistent velo; should be 91-93 from left side. Grade: Present 5/Future 6 |
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#2 Pitch |
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Changeup was best secondary offering; thrown with very good arm speed at 77-79; consistent in delivery; good sink and some fading action to the arm side; should be plus pitch; effective against LH/RH; more feel for CH than FB. Grade: Present 5/ Future 6 |
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#3 Pitch |
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Curveball took several innings to find its way; loose rotation and early break at 73-74 mph; was flipping the pitch; lacked bite or depth early on; found better shape later on the game when it worked 75 and was thrown for strikes; offered more vertical depth; didn’t have confidence in the pitch and deferred to CH in sequence. Grade: Present 4/Future 5 |
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Other |
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Consistent velo from windup and stretch; 92 mph on slide step; 1.35 to plate with runners on first; command was below average; could end up fringe-average or slightly better; lost his angle and worked up/arm-side; struggled to get over and finish; battled without best breaking ball; showed some pitchability; consistent pace. |
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Overall |
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Extreme length; arms/fingers/legs; drags the arm and brings a high leg, which he struggled to get over; FB was average at best; showed some velocity potential but it often arrived soft and flat; not as steep as height would suggest; CH was very good; good sink and some fade; confident pitch; CB flashed average later in the game; worked as a 3 early on; command was below; could find average; lots to like but lacked top-of-the-rotation stuff; has some physical projection left; could see FB tick up a bit; could be a 6/6/5 type with 5 command if everything comes together. OFP Grade: Role 5; no. 4 starter Risk Factor: Moderate |
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***
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RHP |
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DOB: 05/21/1993 |
Height: 6’3” |
Bats: R |
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MLB ETA: Late 2015/Early 2016 |
Weight: 185 |
Throws: R |
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Current Team: Low-A Fort Wayne |
Date(s) Seen: 07/14/2013 |
Date Filed: 07/18/2013 |
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Have Video? Yes |
How Acquired: 2011 First-Year Player Draft, First Round (25th Overall) |
Filed By Nick J. Faleris |
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Mechanics |
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“Phone booth” step into leg lift; clean 3/4 arm slot with easy action and minimal recoil; clean tempo, hits his checkpoints; arm can drag but generally repeats; builds momentum through motion; velocity generated through quick arm and good torque, hip/shoulder separation; gets out over front side; solid balance throughout; athletic; moves well on and off mound. |
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#1 Pitch |
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Fastball: 93-95 (T97); held velo through six innings, with multiple 95s in final inning; primarily worked up in the zone; solid control with some east/west command; arm-side life and some heft; difficult to square due to late action; will throw two- and four-seam variations; projects. Grade: Present 60/Future 65/70 |
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#2 Pitch |
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Slider: 84-85 (T87); inconsistent offering; shows tilt, flashes some bite; trouble throwing for strikes; primarily bury pitch; threw infrequently after struggling early; tendency to yank out of zone; no feel for release. Grade: Present 40/Future 50 |
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#3 Pitch |
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Change-up: 84-85; turns over, mirrors two-seam action; flashed plus; some arm-speed deception; matches fastball slot and trajectory; had to feel for pitch early but adjusted and used as primary secondary throughout outing; induced soft contact flies, rollover grounders; flattens up in zone; broad command to halves, not quadrants; good present/future pairing with heater. Grade: Present 50/Future 55/60 |
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Other |
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Impressive out of the stretch, keeping sub-1.3 seconds to the plate without sacrificing velocity or quality of changeup; raw stuff should have produced more strikeouts (five through six innings) but lack of breaking ball allowed hitters to key in on one plane; could work a little faster with a little more intensity on mound; worked almost exclusively belt up with fastball; build starting to mature but maintains projection; chance for another bump in velo and overall stuff; medical history (shoulder). |
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Overall |
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Fastball/changeup combo has potential to produce lots of groundballs; breaking ball lags, but still flashes; easy motion with no trouble maintaining stuff through six innings on a hot afternoon; improving consistency from earlier looks but will need to continue to tighten and repeat mechanics; working higher in the zone than earlier looks—needs to work north/south more effectively, especially when slider isn’t there; starter profile due to potential for three-pitch mix and durability; command and breaking ball need a step forward before tackling higher levels; incremental improvements could lead to jump in stuff and OFP; remains high risk due to current profile and shoulder injury in past 14 months. OFP Grade: 55; no. 3/4 Starter Risk: High |
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***
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LHP |
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DOB: 4/7/93 |
Height : 6’2 |
Bats: L |
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MLB ETA: Mid 2014 |
Weight: 200 |
Throws: L |
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Current Team: Bowie |
Date(s) Seen: 5/31 |
Date Filed: 7/18 |
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Have Video? No |
How Acquired: International Free Agent; Venezuela 2010 |
Filed By: Zach Mortimer |
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Mechanics |
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¾ arm slot; 3B side of rubber; slightly crossfire; small leg kick; easily repeatable delivery; smooth mechanics; low-effort delivery. |
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#1 Pitch |
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Fastball: Velocity: 90-93 (T95); command plus; arm-side run. Commands well to both sides of the plate; attacks right-handed batters in on the hands; velocity dips further into games. Grade: 50/60 |
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#2 Pitch |
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Slider: Velocity: 84-86; command average, but will leave elevated; tight spin sharp break with depth. throws to both sides of the plate; crowds right-handed batters; will leave elevated when tiring. Grade: 45/55 |
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#3 Pitch |
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Changeup: Velocity: 83-86; command solid-average; arm-side life that can be considered fade, but is thrown too firmly a majority of the time; mixes in sparingly; developing trust in pitch; uses in correct sequences. Grade: 40/50 |
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Other |
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High volume fastball usage; body could benefit from good weight added to lower half; crowds right-handed batters with heavy dose of inside FB/SL; advanced understanding of pitching. |
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Overall |
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Strengths: Potential plus FB; plus pitchability; solid-average command profile. Weaknesses: Lacks plus secondary offering; minimal projection. Overall, Rodriguez has a plus fastball and understands how to use it on both sides of the plate. He may lack a plus secondary offering, but he has plus command/pitchability and will be able to pitch for many years in the back of a rotation. OFP: 50; no. 4 starter. Risk: Low |
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RHP |
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DOB: 8/23/93 |
Height : 6’7 |
Bats: L |
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MLB ETA: 2015 |
Weight: 195 |
Throws: R |
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Current Team: West Virginia |
Date(s) Seen: 6/27 |
Date Filed: 7/17 |
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Have Video? No |
How Acquired: Fifth Round; 152nd overall, 2011. |
Filed By: Zach Mortimer |
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Mechanics |
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¾ arm slot; 3B side of rubber; long levers; fast arm; effort in delivery; falls off to first-base side; plus posture and momentum; repeats delivery. |
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#1 Pitch |
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Fastball: Velocity: 92-95 (T96); command average; extreme downward plane; attack pitch used early and often; will throw to both sides of the plate. Grade: 60/60 |
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#2 Pitch |
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Curveball: Velocity: 75-78; command developing, currently fringe-average; sharp downward break; tendency to overthrow in strikeout situations; shows feel to throw early in count for strikes. Grade: 50/60 |
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#3 Pitch |
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Changeup: Velocity: 83-86; command developing, currently below average; average fade as it approaches hitting zone when thrown at lower velocity; shows feel; still very raw as he throws it to firmly a majority of the time. Grade: 35/50 |
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Other |
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Attacks with fastball; big strong frame; room to add mass in lower half; uses supreme size to create sharp plane and induce groundballs. |
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Overall |
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Strengths: Fastball; curveball; physical frame. Weaknesses: present changeup; command profile; present pitchability. Overall, Glasnow has the size and stuff to be an effective starting pitcher. He understands how to attack with the fastball early in the count. His curveball is one that flashes the ability to miss bats, but is currently inconsistent. He shows feel for a changeup, but that is in the early stages of development. OFP: 55; no. 3 starter. Risk: High |
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RHP |
Pittsburgh Pirates |
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DOB: 11/18/91 |
Height : 6’6 |
Bats: R |
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MLB ETA: Mid 2014 |
Weight: 235 |
Throws: R |
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Current Team: Altoona |
Date(s) Seen: 6/22 |
Date Filed: 7/17 |
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Have Video? No |
How Acquired: First Round; 2nd overall, 2010. |
Filed By: Zach Mortimer |
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Mechanics |
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¾ arm slot; middle of rubber; lengthy arm action; arm will travel toward first base in back of arm stroke; inconsistent release point; fast arm; maintains posture and balance. |
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#1 Pitch |
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Fastball: Velocity: 93-96 (T97; command below average; arm-side run and sink; heavy; causes many broken bats and tough to lift. Grade: 70/70 |
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#2 Pitch |
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Curveball: Velocity: 80-82; command fringe average; hard two-plane break. violent offering that misses bats when commanded down in the zone; trusts it as a strikeout offering much more than early in the count. Grade: 60/70 |
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#3 Pitch |
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Changeup: Velocity: 85-89; command below average; shows fade at lower velocity. crude offering that is consistently thrown too firmly; will develop into a usable pitch, but I do not trust arm action to allow it to be a bat-missing offering. Grade: 30/40 |
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Other |
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Attacks with fastball; high volume of fastballs; prototypical big strong physical frame; competitor. |
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Overall |
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Strengths: Plus-plus fastball; plus-plus curveball; pitching mentality. Weaknesses: Fringy command; below average changeup. Overall, Taillon is one of the only pitchers in the minors who can boast two plus-plus offerings. The arm action does not allow me to project the future command or changeup as average. OFP: 60; High no. 3 starter. Risk: Low |
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***
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RHP |
San Diego Padres |
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DOB: 01/18/1994 |
Height: 6’4” |
Bats: L |
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MLB ETA: 2016 |
Weight: 185 |
Throws: L |
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Current Team: Low-A Fort Wayne |
Date(s) Seen: 07/11/2013 |
Date Filed: 07/18/2013 |
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Have Video? Yes |
How Acquired: 2012 First-Year Player Draft, First Round (7th Overall) |
Filed By Nick J. Faleris |
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Mechanics |
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Simple step-in with solid balance throughout; 3/4 slot consistent across arsenal; free and easy arm; some inconsistencies in release and moving through hip rotation negatively affects command and can tip secondaries; nice and tall through delivery but extends and gets over front side, creating angles but keeping arm/shoulder free of recoil and unnecessary stress; solid body control considering long limbs and maturing build; moves well off of mound; athleticism to tweak mechanics and implement instruction. |
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#1 Pitch |
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Fastball: 90-92 (T95); dropped to 88-90 in second inning and back to 90-92 for the remainder of outing; worked primarily off of two-seam with effort to work bottom “U” of strike zone; four-seam mostly elevated ahead in count; two-seam comes with arm-side action and some bore to LHH; four-seamer relatively straight; inconsistent command of both variations, with lapses tending to come periodically in clusters; more velo to come; at present, core accelerates through hip rotation faster than CH/CB, tipping fastball to hitters. Grade: Present 50/Future 60 |
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#2 Pitch |
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Curveball: two shelves, 76-78 and 72-73, each coming 1-to-7; mid-to-upper-70s bender shows depth and good shape; low-70s version used as a “change of pace” offering, sacrificing bite for exaggerated depth and variation on trajectory; command comes and goes, knocking utility and “now” grade, but pitch projects very well; effective dropping into strike zone and as a chase; utilizes lesser torque through core than in case of fastball, tipping pitch as secondary offering; arm speed consistent with FB. Grade: Present 55/Future 70 |
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#3 Pitch |
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Changeup: 81-82; good deception out of hand; turns over and creates late fade; improved feel from last look; improving ability to throw to both sides against RHH and LHH; third potential better-than-average offering; as with curve, lesser torque through core than in case of FB, tips pitch as a secondary offering; arm speed consistent with FB. Grade: Present 45/Future 55/60 |
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Other |
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Stuff was better than his line for the outing; some defensive miscues extended first inning and forced pitch count up early; good poise on the mound in spite of tough outing; already flashing front-end arsenal that, in time, should come out more consistently; long to plate in the stretch (1.45 to 1.55, generally), would benefit from periodically implementing a slide step; highly projectable frame with athleticism; will get stronger and the combination of additional strength, athleticism and an easy arm action could mean a jump in stuff past projected grades; may need to clean up tipping of fastball. |
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Overall |
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Potential for front-end profile with elite stuff, durable build, and easy, repeatable mechanics; inconsistencies in release and command right now, but plenty of time to clean up; raw stuff is impressive, as is poise and approach; showed feel for sequencing and ability to work backward; high level of comfort with three offerings and showing continued progress from previous looks; top-tier combination of now stuff, projectability; athleticism, and effortless arm; can make it look very easy; still high risk due to delta between current profile and full realization of potential, but could be special if everything clicks. OFP Grade: 60/65; no. 2/3 Starter Risk: High |
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***
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CF |
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DOB: 11/12/93 |
Height: 6’3 |
Bats: R |
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MLB ETA: N/A |
Weight: 220 |
Throws: R |
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Current Team: Winston-Salem |
Date(s) Seen 4/26-4/28 and 6/14 |
Date Filed: 7/17/13 |
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Have Video? No |
How Acquired: First round, 13th overall in 2012 |
Filed By: Zach Mortimer |
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Physical/Health |
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Muscular build; thick lower half; may be shorter than listed; shorter arms; minimal projection; high-maintenance body that has the potential to add bad weight. |
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Hit Tool |
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Starts hands high and moves them into hitting zone with more movement than I would like to see; toe tap with stride can get him out on front foot; pulls hips and body out of the zone early; minimal bat-to-ball skills; will expand zone both horizontally and vertically; does not recognize secondary offerings. Grade: Current 20/Future 30 |
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Power |
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Plus raw power; naturally strong forearms/wrists; creates torque in swing by anchoring weight on back leg; will collapse backside to increase power potential; will not actualize power based on lack of contactibility. Grade: Current 60/60 |
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Glove |
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Below average reads off of the bat; struggled coming in on balls; limited top-end speed creates a natural lack of range; will have to move to a corner. Grade: 50/50 |
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Arm |
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Solid-average arm strength; throws on a line; made correct throwing decisions; uses entire body to create the most effective throws. Grade: 55/55 |
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Baserunning/Speed |
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4.37-4.41 out of the box; swing does not allow him to get out of the box well; second gear is only average; size will always be an issue and could cause him to lose a step. Grade: 45/45 |
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Other |
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Strengths: Raw Power; Arm Strength. Weaknesses: Overall hit tool; inability to stay in centerfield; physical frame has minimal projection. |
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Overall |
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Courtney Hawkins is a prospect being challenged by the Chicago White Sox. He is placed in High-A only a year after being drafted. In my opinion, the problems are being amplified by him being placed in the challenge assignment, but his overall skill set would struggle anywhere. Hawkins’ carrying tool was his power, and he will not have enough contact ability for it to matter. Grade: 30; organizational player Risk: n/a |
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***
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OF |
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DOB: 3/4/1992 |
Height: 6’4 |
Bats: Right |
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MLB ETA: 2013 |
Weight: 210 |
Throws: Right |
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Current Team: Triple-A Toledo (International League) |
Date(s) Seen: 6/25/13 through 6/28/13 |
Date Filed: 7/18/13 |
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Have Video? No |
How Acquired: 2010 Draft, Supplemental 1st (44th overall), Detroit Tigers |
Filed By: Mark Anderson, Jr. |
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Physical/Health |
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Bulked up since prior viewing; long arms and legs but well proportioned overall; very strong; has maintained flexibility in upper body despite bulking up; very impressive physically with room to develop more. |
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Hit Tool |
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Very natural; it all looks easy for him; excellent base with lower half; remains balanced throughout swing; quiet and simple load that he repeats well; head stays almost perfectly still from trigger all the way to contact; excellent bat speed; bat-to-ball skills are superb; works right-center to left field line with ease; tremendous overall feel for the game in the batter’s box; tracks the ball very well; recognizes spin and can stay back; handles velocity well; can hit in all parts of the zone; will expand zone at times but can still make hard contact; likes to swing and will be aggressive but picks his spots; showing more patience and desire to find the pitch he can do the most damage with; improved approach has resulted in even more hard contact than before; only polishing remains to further refine pitch selection and consistency; could hit major league pitching at an average level right now; potential .300-plus hitter. Grade: Present 5/Future 7 |
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Power |
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Really starting to show in games; consistently drives the ball hard to all fields; loves to work right-center to center with lots of power; line-drive swing; natural strength and bat speed translate to contact and allow for “that sound” off the bat; shows ability to drive the ball out of the park to the opposite field; still learning to turn on the ball and get into it; pull-side power will come with experience and final polishing of offensive game; doesn’t loft the ball a ton but line drives are hit plenty hard enough to get out; potential for 35-plus doubles and 20-25 home runs a year at his peak; hit utility gives him a strong chance of maximizing his raw power. Grade: Present 5/Future 6+ |
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Glove |
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Converted infielder; still very raw defensively; can get the job done most of the time; doesn’t look pretty during execution; jumps are consistently a half tick late; routes have too much shape and are rarely direct to the spot; appears to track the ball fairly well in the air and doesn’t hesitate a lot; looks unsettled when under the ball; seems very unsure of himself defensively; glove position is inconsistent and often awkward on the catch; nuances like pre-positioning his body for throws are still lost; lacks range due to unimpressive speed; can’t help but feel a bit nervous when the ball is hit in his direction; currently needs a lot of work in the field; even with significant work, doesn’t have projection for more than fringe-average. Grade: Present 3+/Future 4+ |
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Arm |
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Raw arm strength is above average; still struggles with consistent outfield throwing mechanics; gets caught in old throwing habits at times and kind of slings the ball; will show occasional throw with good mechanics, good velocity and some accuracy, but those are rare; more often throws lack zip or accuracy; works hard pre-game on throwing mechanics; arm could play average long term. Grade: Present 4/Future 5 |
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Baserunning/Speed |
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Not a graceful runner; running can look difficult for him at times; clearly tries hard but his body just won’t let it happen; doesn’t get out of the box well or get underway well in the outfield; has instincts on the bases but lack of raw speed impacts execution; speed is a marginal part of his game; all negative impacts will manifest defensively rather than offensively; any speed projection is negative as his body thickens with physical maturity. Grade: Present 4/Future 3+ |
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Other |
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Gritty, gamer type of player; baseball rat; plays the game hard at all times; works hard to improve; has tremendous natural aptitude with a bat in his hands; can make adjustments an implement new lessons instantly at the plate; lacks similar aptitude/instincts defensively; looks like a dirtbag type of player with rugged appearance and no batting gloves; quiet, confident kid that is very hard on himself at the plate. |
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Overall |
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Offensive potential carries the profile and could make him a star; potential .300 hitter with budding power; should hit in the middle of a championship lineup; natural offensive gifts are a joy to watch and could manifest into an offensive monster; struggles defensively; instincts for the outfield are lacking and though the arm has raw strength it doesn’t play with poor mechanics for the position; defensive development may never come; baseball rat with excellent makeup; offensive profile will overshadow defensive shortcomings. Grade: 6+; Above average regular/potential All-Star Risk Factor: Low |
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***
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OF |
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DOB: 1/4/1989 |
Height: 6’0 |
Bats: Right |
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MLB ETA: 2014 |
Weight: 200 |
Throws: Right |
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Current Team: Triple-A Buffalo (International League) |
Date(s) Seen: 6/14/13 through 6/16/13 (with Double-A New Hampshire) |
Date Filed: 7/18/13 |
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Have Video? No |
How Acquired: 2011 Draft, 32nd Round, Toronto |
Filed By: Mark Anderson, Jr. |
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Physical/Health |
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Compact; strong; well built; limited physical projection; average athlete. |
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Hit Tool |
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Track record of hitting is extensive; simple swing; very quiet pre-pitch routine with limited stride, small load and consistent head and hand position; gets the bat to the hitting zone consistently; regularly on time to the zone; very balanced overall; handles velocity; feel for contact is exceptional; will occasionally get too confident in his ability to hit and swings at pitches he can’t drive, resulting in some weak contact; sprays the ball; line-drive stroke; mature in the box; potential plus hit with contact-heavy approach and limited ability/desire to work counts. Grade: Present 5/Future 6+ |
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Power |
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Gap power to all fields; line drives from line to line; doesn’t make serious impact on the ball but can drive it some; limited home run potential at the highest level; bat speed does not stand out; swing is contact oriented and not necessarily conducive to big power; could hit 25-plus doubles with consistent playing time; could come into slightly more power with improved willingness to look for pitches to hammer. Grade: Present 4/Future 4 |
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Glove |
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Surprised with ability to handle center field at a passable level; projects better on a corner; success in center field was result of instincts rather than raw speed; could handle the position on an infrequent basis at the major-league level; decent jumps; routes are crisp and to the spot; looks comfortable and confident; plays hard and will sell out to make plays; average glove overall with versatility for all three spots. Grade: Present 5/Future 5 |
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Arm |
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Showed average arm strength in three-game sample; deep throws from center field required a fair amount of arc to reach target; accuracy was good; arm doesn’t hold him back defensively but it is not a true asset either; arm fits best in left field. Grade: Present 5/Future 5 |
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Baserunning/Speed |
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Not a burner; average home-to-first; gets out of the box well and shows max effort at all times; good instincts on the bases; can look a little choppy down the line but gets the job done in the end; aggressive taking extra bases and not afraid to try and make things happen; could steal 10-15 bases annually; speed plays up on defense because of instincts. Grade: Present 5/Future 5 |
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Other |
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Hard-nosed player; gamer type; knows the game; plays with energy; shows intelligence and is a quick learner on the field; intangibles stack up well and enhance the overall tool profile. |
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Overall |
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Hit utility is very impressive; knack for getting the barrel to the ball; doesn’t have a ton of power but hits it hard enough to pick up some doubles and avoid the slap hitter tag; offensive profile will be batting-average driven but has natural feel for the craft to make it work; defensive ability is a little surprising with potential to handle center field in a pinch; ability to play center field helps the overall profile; arm and speed are average; speed can play up at times thanks to instincts; heady player; plays the game hard; manager’s dream in terms of effort; fourth outfield floor and could carve out a career as a solid second-division guy. Grade: 5; Second-Division Regular Risk Factor: Moderate |
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Doug Thorburn gave his mechanics pretty high marks earlier this year (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19539) so I was just curious whether:
a) you guys saw different things because you saw him on different outings (maybe he's regressed) or
b) if the two of you saw the same mechanics and differ on how they impact his projected future? (or some combination i guess).
Thanks.
Number 1 the "ace"
Number 3, not "ace" but a guy you're happy to have on the mound every 5th day
number 5, the long reliever you settle for because you need a fifth starter
A number one ace type is rare. Big stuff and command of it.
A number two guy, a near ace, has some fairly obvious flaw, usually in the command area or secondary pitch problem. Fairly minor but troubling.
A three or a four are pretty close. Maybe a guy like Biddle, who strikes out lots of minor league guys and has lots of promise but doesn't throw 95 or have great command. But good enough to look like a solid innings eating starter. Nothing wrong with that.
A guy who project to a 3 or 4 can be a pretty good prospect.
And these numbers can change fairly quickly if a guy improves command or a secondary pitch or adds some MPH to the heat. And that stuff happens often enough to not let a projection of a three or four to get worked up about.
Good comments regarding this issue. It helps to try to define terms in your head when reading the prospect stuff.
About Hawkins, he is obviously way over his head right now. Assuming he repeats high A next season, what would prevent him from growing his game? In other words, what makes him a lost cause instead of just a kid struggling in his first pro season at a level not commensurate with his lack of polish?
Thanks
Oh, and by the way, pitch/fx data makes it pretty clear that human beings are incapable of judging vertical movement on fastballs. Anything in a scouting report about fastball movement other than an assessment of armside run is a description of an illusion, reverse-engineered from effectiveness, and actually derived from command and deception.