We’ve done it, Internet. We’ve compiled a Big List of Players just for you.
Craig and I have spent the past six weeks breaking down each division, forming individual top-30 U25 dynasty rankings and comparing those lists with some witty (read: tired) commentary in each installment. We’ve also been debating each list on TINO, with the help of Dear Leader Bret Sayre and Mauricio Rubio, and have fielded many questions and concerns on Twitter and via the comments section, too.
Now, Craig and I have combined forces to form a collaborative top-150 list meant to give dynasty leaguers a concrete view of where we think each player’s value lies at this point in time. This is a great exercise because it forced Craig and I to defend players we love and form cogent arguments (a new experience, to be sure) against players we dislike, and I know I’ve personally changed my evaluations of a few prospects and post-prospects through this process.
That being said, we’re still going to provide you with a few tidbits of our own personal feelings about these rankings, and we strongly encourage you to ask us questions in the comments below. We still disagree on some of these players, but overall I think we’ve come to a happy, reasonable consensus.
As always, players will have to be born after April 1, 1988, to qualify, and just like with the preseason lists, there is of course an element of subjectivity that comes with these rankings. But unlike the preseason lists, these rankings are all about fantasy.
Dynasty U25 Top 150 Rankings, No. 101-150
- 101. Jonathan Schoop, 2B/3B, BAL
- 102. Mike Olt, 3B, CHC
- 103. Jonathan Villar, SS, HOU
- 104. Derek Norris, C, OAK
- 105. Devin Mesoraco, C, CIN
- 106. Marcell Ozuna, OF, MIA
- 107. Max Fried, SP, SD
- 108. Henry Owens, SP, BOS
- 109. Kohl Stewart, SP, MIN
- 110. Kolten Wong, 2B, STL
- 111. Wily Peralta, SP, MIL
- 112. Jose Quintana, SP, CHW
- 113. Brad Miller, SS, SEA
- 114. Yasmani Grandal, C, SD
- 115. Mike Zunino, C, SEA
- 116. Tim Anderson, SS, CHW
- 117. Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, BOS
- 118. Albert Almora, OF, CHC
- 119. Matt Wisler, SP, SD
- 120. Michael Pineda, SP, NYY
- 121. Jameson Taillon, SP, PIT
- 122. Hunter Harvey, SP, BAL
- 123. Wilmer Flores, INF, NYM
- 124. Michael Choice, OF, TEX
- 125. Blake Swihart, C, BOS
- 126. Joey Gallo, 3B, TEX
- 127. Raimel Tapia, OF, COL
- 128. Austin Meadows, OF, PIT
- 129. Dan Vogelbach, 1B, CHC
- 130. Tyler Glasnow, SP, PIT
- 131. Braden Shipley, SP, ARI
- 132. Rymer Liriano, OF, SD
- 133. Jorge Soler, OF, CHC
- 134. Sean Manaea, SP, KC
- 135. Delino DeShields, Jr, OF, HOU
- 136. Matt Davidson, 3B, CHW
- 137. Gary Sanchez, C, NYY
- 138. Lucas Sims, SP, ATL
- 139. Jake Marisnick, OF, MIA
- 140. Danny Duffy, SP, KC
- 141. Nathan Eovaldi, SP, MIA
- 142. Drew Hutchison, SP, TOR
- 143. Josh Bell, OF, PIT
- 144. Mike Foltynewicz, P, HOU
- 145. James Paxton, SP, SEA
- 146. Casey Kelly, SP, SD
- 147. Matt Barnes, SP, BOS
- 148. Stephen Piscotty, OF, STL
- 149. Brian Goodwin, OF, WAS
- 150. Domingo Santana, OF, HOU
Also Considered: Miguel Almonte (SP, KC), Henderson Alvarez (SP, MIA), Tyler Austin (OF, NYY), Jesse Biddle (SP, PHI), Jorge Bonifacio (OF, KC), Lewis Brinson (OF, TEX), Tyler Chatwood (SP, COL), J.P. Crawford (SS, PHI), D.J. Davis (OF, TOR), Avisail Garcia (OF, CHW), Alen Hanson (INF, PIT), Zack Lee (SP, LAD), Ryan McMahon (3B, COL), Rafael Montero (SP, NYM), Jake Odorizzi (SP, TB), Jarrod Parker (SP, OAK), D.J. Peterson (3B, SEA), Rick Porcello (SP, DET), Eduardo Rodriguez (SP, BAL), Luis Sardinas (SS, TEX), Dan Straily (SP, OAK), Vincent Velasquez (SP, HOU), Allen Webster (SP, BOS), Mason Williams (OF, NYY), Nick Williams (OF, TEX)
Ranking Ben Feels Best About: Brad Miller
I don’t think Brad MIller is a very good baseballer and I am happy we ranked him as such. I still think Nick Franklin has the better fantasy career. Craig, to his credit, did not fight me on this.
Ranking Craig Feels Best About: Danny Duffy
I love this ranking because Ben didn’t want him on the list and I made it happen anyway. He’s got his flaws—WHIP is going to be an issue—but the strikeouts will matter, and while he might only be a no. 4 fantasy starter, he’s that right now, with a little room to grow (if not the probability that he will).
Ranking Ben Feels Worst About: Michael Pineda
If he stays healthy, he’s going to make us look really dumb for this ranking. If he doesn’t—which is where the safe money lies—we might be dumb for even putting him this high. Guys like Pineda are among the toughest to rank from a fantasy POV, so all we can really do is hedge our bets. I also loathe putting Danny Duffy on this list, but you can’t win ‘em all.
Ranking Craig Feels Worst About: Kolten Wong
I’ve never been a believer, and while I know he can hit, I think it’s ultimately an empty average with a few stolen bases thrown in. I think his best-case scenario is a back-end top-10 second-sacker, and while that’s useful, I don’t value it much in a list like this.
Ben’s Toughest Omission: Nick Williams
Williams was on this list, but then we were all like, “zomg, we totally forgot Billy Hamilton.” Sure, Williams may lack some degree of baseball awareness (or any awareness in general) but I’m a true believe in his easy plus hit tool, and I think there’s more power here than people realize. He could be a very fast riser up lists like this next year.
Craig’s Toughest Omission: Nomar Mazara
The case just isn’t there to be made, considering he’s a level below Williams and not producing a ton at the moment, but I do believe Mazara has the best blend of power and hit tools of the Hickory/Myrtle outfielders. It was tough to leave him off this list but distance from the majors and a lack of overwhelming production made it unavoidable.
Thank you for reading
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Additionally, I don't think grouping him with Mesoraco or Ozuna is overly high praise.
I'd also put Wisler ahead of Fried. I agree that Fried has a higher ceiling, but Wisler is sailing through the minors and should be contributing to the Padres very soon, but Fried is dealing with injury and is still at least a year away.
The question remains as to whether Eovaldi's command, nee, success (at this level) is sustainable. If Eovaldi develops his changeup is an open question and one that we have no real inroads to. So too, if he develops a changeup would Folty's ceiling improve.
You say "a tad more" when it comes to the changeup, a pitch he's using 3% of the time. He's going to need it to be better, and to actually use it to be a 2/3 for any extended period. I'm hopeful that he continues his run of success, but this ranking wasn't based on 8 starts in 2014. It includes his prior history.
Eovaldi's sample size may be small, but he is throwing 65.4% First strikes and is throwing 60.3% of his pitches in the strikezone, the highest in baseball. These things stabilize quite quickly. So, the control is better and the command has looked good so far. I heard he was working on the change-up in spring training, but I agree, we need to see it more. I mean you have Wily Peralta up at 111, and how is he different than Eovaldi? A slightly better GB-rate in a hitters park?
As for Peralta, his GB% is far more "real" to me than Eovaldi's which is 11% higher than his previous career high. Understanding that some stats stabilize quickly, unless there is something that has changed in his repertoire or otherwise, I'm not assuming that Eovaldi is just magically striking out two more batters per nine innings.
Peralta's breakout I can justify because he started using the slider more often last year, and increased his strikeout rate in the second half of last season, and has thus far kept it up.
There's also the chance that difference between those two rankings is overstated based on the numbers. 111 and 141 just aren't that far apart.
As for Eovaldi - I've been high on him ever since he was an 11th round pick for the Dodgers, but he is currently fastball/slider and the slider is above-average but not quite plus. His strikeouts per nine are up about two over last season, and I don't think that's sustainable without the presence of a third pitch or the sharpening of command on his slider. If he does do either of those things though, the improvement should be for real. Added consideration: he was an 11th round pick because he underwent Tommy John in high school. TJ generally has a 5-year honeymoon period, but after that the risk returns. That being the case, if Eovaldi has to undergo another surgery, it would be his second and thus more risky. It's not high level concern, but it's not getting ignored either.
As a very generalized pecking order, I tend to look at it this way:
Star MLB player
Good MLB player
Star prospect
Average MLB player
Good prospect
Average prospect w/ upside
Fringe MLB player
Average prospect w/high floor
Harvey has two phenomenal pitches and is developing a third. How far that changeup comes will play a large role in him reaching his real life and fantasy ceiling, but he already suffers in terms of value in fantasy in that he's a pitcher, which in general are more replaceable.
So yes, timevalue matters right now. Harvey could have any number of things happen in his development but we're likely looking at 3 years away at least. While his ceiling rightfully makes him part of the discussion, 3 years of non-production is a lot, and Schoop should provide above-average power at a position without much.
Personally, I was never as high on Tapia or Anderson and have always been high on Gallo. I'll let Craig speak for himself.
Also, the difference between Anderson and Tapia at this stage - just numbers wise - is very small. You're talking about a difference of 11 spots, and that far down, 11 spots is just a marginal preference.