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These guys are actually pretty good, so we don’t have to waste time with an introduction.
For 2015
Kris Bryant, Cubs
Ever heard of him? Bryant is the consensus no. 1 fantasy prospect in baseball after a season in which he hit .355/.458/.702 in Double-A and then wasn’t much worse in Iowa. The 23-year-old can hit for massive power, has the potential to hit for a decent average and will even throw in a few steals early in his career. He’s not a perfect prospect: he strikes out a lot, he’s not a great bet to hit above .275 with regularity and he could be an outfielder. But he has the best combination of upside and floor in the minors when it comes to a fantasy bat, and even if he moves to the outfield (or, god forbid, first base) he’s a potential monster. It’s not hard to see him amassing in excess of 300 PA in 2015 and finishing as a top-100 player as soon as 2016.
Maikel Franco, Phillies
We’ve spent so much time picking apart the flaws in Franco’s profile; he’s not an adept defender at third, he thinks he can hit everything, he doesn’t walk enough; that it’s easy to overlook what’s attractive about the package here. A 6+ potential power tool and a 5+ potential hit tool in Citizens Bank Park? Thank you sir, I’ll have another. Franco has hit somewhere between “respectably” and “really well” at every MiLB level, he’s 22, he should see substantial time in the majors in 2015 and he’ll at least start his career at third base. The reason Franco thinks he can hit everything is generally because he has to this point, and I’m ok with gambling on a player with natural bat speed and bat-to-ball ability. That being said, there’s a lot of room between .280 with 25 homers at third and .260 with 18 homers at first, which seem equally plausible outcomes.
D.J. Peterson, Mariners
From a fantasy perspective–not a scouting perspective–Franco and Peterson have pretty similar final products to offer. Peterson is another guy with a penchant for punishing baseballs, perhaps giving up a bit of natural bat-to-ball ability to Franco but making up that ground with a more sound approach. The problem here is that we’re not evaluating Franco and Peterson in a vacuum; we’re judging the latter knowing he’s in an org that’s failed miserably at developing hitters (with apologies to Kyle Seager), calls a power-suppressing park home and has a long-term solution at the position at which Peterson profiles best, third base. If he’s traded, Peterson could be a lucrative third base option for the first few years of his career. If he stays in Seattle, he’s probably a second-division first baseman, and that’s a bummer. There’s a lot of room between .280 with 25 homers at third and .260 with 18 homers at first, which seem equally plausible outcomes.
Garin Cecchini, Red Sox
Hahahaha did you really think I was going to stop talking about Cecchini? I never will. The Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez signings mean his future isn’t in Boston, which is a bit of a bummer considering the offensive environment in which he could’ve developed. But maybe, just maybe, the Sandoval and Ramirez deals precipitate Cecchini’s move out of town, which at this point is a good thing for his fantasy value. Scouts still don’t agree whether there’s a legit first-division starter or a fringy second-division guy here, but in OBP leagues he’s going to be good, and he still has a chance to be relevant in 5×5 leagues, too. He doesn’t profile as a star, but ignore him at your own peril.
Jacob Lamb, Diamondbacks
At a certain point, when a player keeps on hitting his way through the minors, we need to be willing to change our initial perceptions about said player. We’re entering that territory with Lamb, who put some “yeah but that’s the Cal League” doubts to rest by crushing Double-A in 2014, then somewhat holding his own in the majors. There are contact and approach issues that mitigate some of Lamb’s upside, but he’s got pop, plays in a good ballpark for power and has a chance to see semi-regular time in 2015. In an ideal developmental world he accumulates at-bats in Triple-A for most of the year, but he’ll be interesting if he’s pressed into service. Then again, that sounds a lot like …
Matt Davidson, White Sox
Hitting .199/.283/.362 is maybe not so great, especially not when it comes in Triple-A as a 23-year-old. Yet before we move Davidson to “We Hardly Knew Ye,” let’s give him the benefit of the doubt. He’s just one year removed from crushing the same level that just crushed him, and while there have always been concerns about his hit tool, he’s an adjustment away from at least being able to hold his own. Conor Gillaspie is the only thing that stands in his way at the MLB level, which is a kind way of saying nothing is standing in his way at all. He’s one of my favorite post-hype prospects for 2015, as you’ll get him for free and he could provide a modest reward by mid-season.
Others: Christian Villanueva, Cubs; Cheslor Cuthbert, Royals; Patrick Kivlehan, Mariners; Giovanny Urshela, Indians; Kyle Kubtiza, Angels; Ryan Rua, Rangers
2016 and Beyond
Miguel Sano, Twins
Take everything you knew about Sano heading into 2014 before his Tommy John surgery and apply it to Sano now. Nothing’s changed in his profile, and while a year of lost development time and an elbow boo-boo aren’t good signs, they’re hardly deal breakers, either. Sano is more athletic than you’d assume, with a natural physicality and attitude that tells you he knows he’s going to do very bad things to baseballs when he’s at the plate. The AVG is in question, but the power isn’t, and he’s as good a bet as anyone in the minors to blossom into a perennial 30-homer threat. Even with the surgery under (above?) his belt, there’s a good chance that power come while Sano plays third base, making him an extraordinarily exciting potential fantasy asset. If someone has prospect fatigue and wants to jump ship for a less-blemished product, jump all over that.
Joey Gallo, Rangers
A year ago, some of the sport’s more embarrassing fantasy analysts couldn’t even pronounce Gallo’s name. Viewed as a boom-or-bust prospect who was far more likely to bust, Gallo’s power was legendary, but so too was the breeze created by his massive swings-and-misses. Gallo started to assuage some of those fears in 2014, laying waste to High-A as a 20-year-old before hitting for prodigious power and a lower average in Double-A. What was especially heartening was the more refined approach Gallo showed in Myrtle Beach. Yes, that was largely wiped away once he reached Frisco, but given how aggressively he’s being pushed that’s no surprise. Gallo can strike out in a third of his at-bats and still be a devastatingly effective fantasy player at the MLB level because he has the most raw power in the minors; we’re talking about Bryce Harper-, Giancarlo Stanton-type pop here. Odds are he needs to spend a good amount of time in the upper minors, but the upside is a top-50 fantasy player, even if a very ugly floor still exists as a possibility, too.
Rafael Devers, Red Sox
Devers is shiny and new. He has never been bad at professional baseball, and so it’s very, very easy to love him. You know better than to get carried away after 300 PA in Rookie Ball, but now everyone’s ranking him so high and he has so much promise and he’s never failed you. Devers is going to fail you at some point. He’s not a perfect prospect, he’s not a lock to stay at third base, he’s a million years away. Devers is already on the short list of third basemen with the highest fantasy upside in the minors, though, and that’s pretty neat for an 18-year-old.
Ryan McMahon, Rockies
I feel like I shouldn’t even be speaking about McMahon; he belongs to Craig Goldstein; but I’ll see if I can do his profile justice here. He’s got big natural power, a potentially above average hit tool and is a lock to stay at the hot corner. Reverse the hit and power tools and that sounds a lot like the guy Colorado has at third base right now, but McMahon is still in the low minors, and we have a long time before we need to worry about a logjam. The ETA is probably 2017 or 2018, but McMahon has top-10 fantasy third baseman potential, which, according to Craig and Bret Sayre, only puts him 70 or 80 slots behind Forrest Wall.
Hunter Dozier, Royals
Dozier crushed it in High-A as a 22-year-old in 2014 but found Double-A to be a more daunting challenge. His prodigious natural power wasn’t fully on display, as he hit just nine homers all year, and the disparity in his AVG between Wilmington (.296) and Northwest Arkansas (.209) make it difficult to project that number, too. Unfortunately, the latter more accurately represents Dozier’s hit tool at present, but there’s still the potential for him to hit around .250 with a solid OBP and 20-plus bombs, which is valuable in today’s offensive environment. The upside isn’t huge here, but he could still be the second-best infielding Dozier in the AL Central.
Brandon Drury, Diamondbacks
Whoa, a guy put up good stats in the Cal League and now everyone likes him! Yes, that petty sarcasm belies Drury’s ability on a baseball diamond, but his overall solid game is more exciting IRL than it is for fantasy purposes. He’s not devoid of upside, and if Drury is to serve as Arizona’s third baseman of the future he’d benefit from great contextual factors. Still, we’re a year-plus away from that happening, and there’s actually a fair amount of competition in the org. If you love Drury and don’t like Garin Cecchini, we’re not boys.
Rio Ruiz, Braves
Another questionable defender, Ruiz lacks the plus offensive profile of some of the others names on this list, which is why he finds himself near the bottom here. The hit tool is promising at times and he’s got a bit of natural pop, but one of those skills is going to need to take a substantial step forward if the fantasy profile is to become more interesting. The .293/.387/.436 line from 2014 looks pretty, but in the Cal League it’s more “solid” than “outstanding.” More like Rio de Janeiric, IMO.
Colin Moran, Astros
Moran has received more early negative reviews than the Double Down Dog, and if you look at any of his MiLB stats other than AVG, it’s not tough to see why. Forget about draft pedigree here for a second: a player who’s not a lock to stick at third base, doesn’t offer much power and is getting slammed left and right for being a “low-energy” player isn’t a great buy. He might get to call Houston home for a minute or two before Carlos Correa kicks Jed Lowrie to third, but that’s not enough to get him close to top-100 fantasy prospect status. The Marlins were smart to spare themselves further indigestion, and if someone is attracted to the name value in your fantasy league, follow suit.
Others: Eric Jagielo, Yankees; Renato Nunez; Michael Chavis, Red Sox; Nick Delmonico, Brewers; Wyatt Mathisen, Pirates; Ti’Quan Forbes, Rangers; Patrick Wisdom, Cardinals; Mitch Nay, Blue Jays; Jeimer Candelario, Cubs; Victor Caratini, Cubs; Drew Ward, Nationals; Jhoan Urena, Mets; Gilbert Lara, Brewers, Gavin LaValley, Reds
We Hardly Knew Ye
- Kaleb Cowart, Angels
- Dante Bichette Jr., Yankees
- Richie Shaffer, Rays
- Zack Cox, Marlins
- Josh Vitters, Cubs
Thank you for reading
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