Dynasty Dynamics: Rebuilding in TDGX

Flags Fly Forever. This is a well-established sleep aid concept at Baseball Prospectus, and it’s what caused me to get very aggressive when The Dynasty Guru Experts League was founded two years ago. This 20-team, 5×5, 35-keeper (including 10 minor league slots) expert dynasty league was created by Bret Sayre to pit knowledgeable, dedicated dynasty league fanatics against each other, as well as provide us with plenty of column material for years to come.

Without rehashing too much of my #TDGX history, let’s just say this: I went for it all in 2014 and I fell flat. Based on the original draft, in which I selected ninth, I ended up with an exciting but old team. Robinson Cano was my first pick. Curtis Granderson, Hunter Pence, Justin Verlander, and David Wright all fell to me at spots where they became irresistible. My farm system was just so-so, but I had good, young second-year players and bounce-back candidates, and I knew my team could compete.

And compete it did … for a time. In fact, I appeared so well positioned that in May of that year, I traded away a cadre of young players for Carlos Gonzalez (and Vincent Velasquez), doing the deed with J.P. Breen. Within a few months, Gonzalez was on the shelf with a season-ending knee injury, a bunch of my other assets were hurt and I plummeted in the standings. I finished the 2014th season in 10th place.

That’s not really what bothers me, though. If you’re going to fail, fail fast. What bothers me was my half-assed attempt at contending last season, in which I tried to make one more push with my aging core (are we not doing phrasing) before realizing my efforts were futile. The result? You guessed it: another 10th place finish, and a firm understanding that I need to tear this thing down in a hurry.

So, that’s what I did this offseason through a flurry of moves that have totally transformed my roster. The end result: six significant deals and plenty of roster cuts that have left just 18 of the 40 players who were on my team when 2015 ended on my roster today. The trades:

That’s 13 players out and 19 players in, for those of you counting at home. And while I lost some very legitimate talent (Pence, Granderson, Verlander, Wright, etc.) I also went a long way toward restocking my farm system. Some of the players I dropped to make room for this influx of talent include: Brayan Pena, Jimmy Rollins, Daniel Nava, Ryan Raburn, Josmil Pinto, Nolan Reimold, Chase Utley, Ackley, Luis Sardinas, and CC Sabathia. Things were bad, guys.

Once the draft rolled around, I was able to further bolster my young ranks. Selecting 11th overall (ah the curse of being bad, but not awful in dynasty), I nabbed these players:

You might be surprised to see that I didn’t go even younger, but a) the pickin’s after my second-round pick were mighty slim and b) as you can see from the trades I was able to make, players like Canha and Madson can easily have (modest) trade value in this league.

In waivers so far this year, I’ve further bolstered my ranks (sort of) by winning bids for Dioner Navarro ($0), Jarred Cosart ($5) and Steven Geltz ($0). A 2016 championship is not in my future.

Add it all together, and here’s what my roster looked like when last season ended vs. what it looks like today

Yes, that’s a bad, bad 2016 roster. A roster that’s going to net me a bottom-three finish in 2016, which is sort of the point.

But my farm system? At this point I own: Aaron Judge, Jesse Winker, Jose Peraza, Jeff Hoffman, Willson Contreras, Jake Thompson, Amed Rosario, Billy McKinney, Brandon Drury, Garrett Whitley, Michael Fulmer, Tom Murphy, Rymer Liriano, Chance Sisco and Jordan Patterson. With the exception of Whitley and perhaps Hoffman, all should be contributors by mid-2017.

Add that to my young group of post-prospect guys like Taylor, Lamb, Pompey, Norris, Velasquez, Folty and Skaggs, and I have something I totally lacked when 2015 ended: young depth with upside.

I realize this is not the sexiest of rebuilds so far. I have yet to land any incredible dynasty-league assets, and when the arguable headliner of your overhaul is Aaron Judge or Josh Reddick, you’ve still got some work to do. But if I’m reasonably trying to compete in 2018, I’m not sure who I gave away that I’ll miss. Maybe Hunter Pence. Maybe Mike Leake. Maybe Justin Verlander. But you sort of have to squint to see it.

There’s also one facet to this rebuild that we haven’t mentioned yet; I haven’t dealt either of my best assets in Robinson Cano or Carlos Gonzalez. It’s not for lack of trying — and I’ve whined many times about my troubles trading Cano — but it still gives me plenty of ammunition. Each of those studs should be able to net me several enticing young players. If they can’t, odds are Cano will still be a top-12 second baseman and CarGo will still be a top-40 outfielder when I want to compete again in two seasons.

The first stage of my rebuild—amassing young talent and overhauling the bottom of my roster—is complete. Moving forward, I’ll look to combine some of the young players I’ve acquired and some of my remaining veterans to move up a rung in the dynasty world and target some real blue-chippers. That’s easier said than done, but with a deep farm system and five or six remaining attractive MLB players, I’m confident. If nothing else, this is more interesting than finishing in 10th again.