Fantasy Freestyle: Dynasty Prospects: A Few of My Favorites

We’ve reached that point in the season where the minor leagues start to play their all-star games, and the first-half performers start migrating to their next respective levels, and the recent crop of draft picks starts to matriculate into short-season play, and the world is sunny and beautiful for prospect hounds. I play in a couple dynasty leagues that have mid-season prospect drafts, and I’ve always enjoyed the format. On one hand, it tends to encourage further prospect trading, as managers get faster and looser with their farmhands knowing they can replenish the coffers with recent draftees and J2 signees in short order. And on the other, there tends to be an opportunity to grab some helium guys that can get lost in the shuffle of the race to snag the newest first-rounders. So with that as my backdrop, here’s a list of some personal favorites to either make a play for in trade over the next couple weeks or add to your target list for an upcoming prospect draft.

Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Chicago Cubs (Triple-A Iowa) – I’ve been pining for the day of Vogelbach’s big league debut for what feels like my entire fantasy baseball-playing life, and now that it’s almost here I’m like a little kid three days before his birthday party. After honing his pure hitting skills over the past couple summers, the big man has let loose with leverage this year at Triple-A, pounding out 15 dingers amid 31 extra-base hits already to drive the fifth-highest slugging percentage in the PCL. And yet… there are still dragging narratives about his defense, and how there’s no place for him on the Cubs’ 25-man roster anyway with Rizzo locked up cheap through his prime. Those concerns may just serve you as a helpful value suppressant as you look to acquire him, one last time, before he debuts and evolves into a very valuable fantasy asset. Talent wins out. Maybe not a hundred percent of the time, but a lot of the time. Vogelbach’s bat will force its way into a big league lineup somehow and some way, and once it does he’s going to do a lot of hitting. This is your final warning from me.

Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros (Double-A Corpus Christi) – Martes obliterated A-ball last year en route to a Double-A promotion before his 20^th birthday. A return engagement there this spring began poorly, as he struggled to face the reality that getting high-minors hitters out multiple times in a given start generally requires use of more than two pitches. Given the rapid ascent last year and status entering the year as something of a pop-up stock it’s entirely possible that his early struggles were all it took for his owner in your league to downgrade his value internally. He’s quietly bounced back to produce very solid numbers over the past two months now as the youngest pitcher in the Texas League, and the top two pitches remain every bit as pornographic as they were when I gushed about them last summer. This is one of the highest-ceilinged pitching prospects in the minor leagues, and if you can pick him up at a lower value than that, go get him now while the getting is still good.

Matt Chapman, 3B, Oakland Athletics (Double-A Midland) – There was a spell there in early May when Chapman looked like he was going to be the belle of the ball all year. He came out en fuego in April, ripping seven homers in 22 games and slapping a .980 OPS on the board in his first taste of Double-A pitching. But pitchers in the Texas League adjusted, as they are wont to do, and he’s now down to a .230 clip for the season with a whiff rate north of 30 percent. Last summer I warned of strikeouts and weak fly ball contact as by-products of a swing geared to drive the ball a long way, and those two things have indeed been his undoing of late. But I remain confident in his ability to get to a good deal of his power in games as he advances and makes his own adjustments, to where 25-plus home run seasons are well within his capability. He’s not going to be a fantasy superstar, but in leagues where a hundred prospects are owned he should be among them, as he still profiles as a starting third baseman in 14-team leagues and deeper, and the current down-turn in production may just be all the window you need to acquire him at a significantly cheaper price than that. In OBP leagues he makes for that much more of an interesting target, as he’s going on 675 plate appearances between High-A last year and Double-A this season in which he’s rocked a walk rate north of 11 percent.

Andrew Toles, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (Double-A Tulsa) – Toles is one of the more unique biographies in the minor leagues, as a former third-rounder whose character issues (which later turned out to be more properly classified as medical issues) led to him sitting out all of 2015 after being released by the Rays. Old boss Andrew Friedman gave him another shot last winter, and he has responded by ripping his way through two levels in the season’s first half. Despite a year and a half without professional competition the skill set showed up to Rancho Cucamonga remarkably intact, and judging by ownership rates he remains deep under the radar despite the seventh-best OPS in the Texas League since his promotion. Toles can really hit, and he pairs surprising pop that could ultimately translate to 12 to 15 homers a year with plus speed and the instincts to steal upwards of 30. We’ve reached the point now where he should realistically be owned in all deep leagues with 125 rostered prospects, as the high-minors production has been strong enough to offset the extreme risk profile.

Yohander Mendez, LHP, Texas Rangers (Double-A Frisco) – Mendez is a case study in timing for investing in pitching prospects for fantasy purposes. He’s been on the radar for a long time—check out Mark Anderson’s glowing report on the newly-19-year-old from spring training 2014—but projectable teenaged hurlers in A-ball do not generally make for sound roster-spot usage outside of the deepest of crazy-person leagues. Fast-forward to this past Spring Training, and he still wasn’t quite interesting for those in leagues south of about 20 teams (despite Craig’s best efforts), and even there his history of arm troubles and still-in-A-ball status wasn’t particularly alluring. He was on my follow list though, as he checks most of my pitching prospect investment boxes with an excellent frame, plus changeup that misses bats, and solid command. Well, now here we are about to hit July, and he’s in the process of carving up his second level of the season in the Texas League. The time is right to get in on this if you’re getting in on this (you should get in on this).

Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs (Low-A South Bend) – If you’re looking for a prospect with as much first-half helium as anyone, look no further than Jimenez, who has laid waste to the Midwest League and played himself into consideration for our Mid-Season Top 50 list (spoiler: the prospect team is knee-deep in building our Mid-Season Top 50 list) despite being one of the youngest regulars in Low-A. He’s a physical specimen who sticks out immediately on the field, and his barrel delivery already tantalizes despite some puppy dog qualities to his still-filling-out body. Assuming he doesn’t crater over the next several weeks this is a dynasty league asset in the making, and in shallower and medium-depth leagues with mid-season drafts he should be high on the target lists.

Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (Rk Arizona League) – We were admittedly aggressive in ranking Alvarez 78^th on the BP 101 last winter, and Bret correctly noted the extreme volatility that made him a poor dynasty league asset at the time. There hasn’t been a ton that’s changed since then, insofar as he’s made all of two appearances in the Arizona League since leaving extended spring training. He hit 100 in the first of those appearances, however, and the delivery is extremely loose and free. He was already flashing a plus slider before signing last year, along with utility in a curve and change, and the body is one to dream on given its fluidity and remaining projection. I wouldn’t mess around if’n I were you, and I’d snap him up in any mid-season draft in which he’s available, as there’s potential for serious off-season helium here.

2016 Draftee Bonuses:

Anfernee Grier, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (Short-Season Hillsboro) – Grier hit the ball okay as a sophomore in 2015, but he was still extremely raw as a baseball player. Despite solid strength and top-shelf athleticism neither his power nor speed tools showed much game utility at all just yet, and he wasn’t on many radars heading into the spring. That all changed right quick, as he took several massive leaps forward in converting tools into talent for Auburn, and the outburst landed him a slightly under-slot $1.5 million bonus as the 39^th overall pick in June. That raw power-and-speed combination is among the best in the entire class, and while the hit tool development is likely to be a longer slog than some collegiate bats the payoff could very well be worth it. He won’t be at the top of the queue for any manager working off real-life prospect reports, but as a dynasty league play he offers some of the tastiest upside around.

Brett Cumberland, C, Atlanta Braves (N/A) – Cumberland was one of the best pure bats I saw this spring as a draft-eligible sophomore, but questions about his ultimate defensive home dragged down his real-life prospect stock, and combined with the leverage to return to Cal if necessary for his junior year it drove him into the second competitive balance round. The Braves ponied up nearly double the slot value to secure his services, and it’ll be interesting to see what they do with him defensively. The bat was well ahead of the glove behind the dish in my looks, and there was ample athleticism to where we could see the ol’ Wil Myers treatment if Atlanta ain’t got time for his defensive learning curve. Regardless of the defensive question, the bat makes Cumberland an intriguing under-the-radar target for a later pick in your mid-season draft.