We decided to do things a little differently this year.
For the past few seasons, we have published separate top-101 dynasty lists. Largely, these lists have been similar, with the exception of chunky first basemen ranking much higher on Bret’s iteration and Ben giving dramatic boosts to any middle infielder who can run even a little. For the 2017 list, we decided to balance those biases by creating separate rankings, compiling them and then debating minutia for like a month over gchat. Fantasy prospect rankings are nothing if not scientific.
This is an interesting year for said rankings. There’s less premium talent at the top, and even the top-20 gets pretty thin near the end. But there’s more depth than there was last year, with a solid, meaty middle chunk of the list that’s chock-full of OF4s, SP5s and the like. There might not be a ton of prospects who will win you a dynasty league in this year’s iteration, but there are plenty who can help you along the way. Another consequence of that lack of premium talent? We got a little aggressive in trying to predict who the next generation of dynasty studs will be, bumping up some players with extreme risk/reward profiles. If that’s not your thing, feel free to adjust down, but if you can get in on the next Victor Robles or Ronald Acuna, well, you’ll want to.
There are a few list-specific disclaimers to go over before we jump in. Again, these rankings are for fantasy purposes only, and do not directly take into account things like an outfielder’s ability to stick in center or a catcher’s pop time. Of course, these things do matter indirectly as they affect a player’s ability to either stay in the lineup or maintain eligibility. Additionally, home parks need to be factored in, just as when we are talking about a major-league player. We can’t pretend that these prospects operate in a vacuum, unaffected by park factors. Of course, there’s no guarantee that they will reach the majors with their current organization, so while it is not a heavy consideration, it is reflected. Most importantly, the intention of this list is to balance the upside, probability, and proximity of these players to an active fantasy lineup.
Within the list below, you’ll find important information about each prospect, including their potential fantasy value (in dollars) at their peak and the risk factor associated with reaching their projected output. Also, you will find a fantasy overview, which summarizes how many categories each player will be useful in, along with any that carry impact. For this exercise, we defined “impact” has having the potential to be in the top 15-20 players in a given category. For instance, impact in home runs roughly equates to the potential to hit 30, and impact for strikeouts is the potential to punch out 200. Then you’ll see a realistic ceiling and floor for each prospect, purely in terms of rotisserie value. The comments are specifically brief because we’ve already written fantasy-specific comments on each of these players in the individual top-10 lists.
Without any further ado, here is newest batch of the best 101 prospects for dynasty leagues:
Tier One: Future Fantasy Franchise Cornerstones
1) Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 3)
Potential Earnings: $35+
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, R, RBI, SB
Realistic Ceiling: A first-round pick for the next decade
Realistic Floor: Ian Kinsler
2) Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 30)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Christian Yelich with better hair
Realistic Floor: Adam Eaton with better hair
3) Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 27)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R
Realistic Ceiling: 2016 Francisco Lindor with better hair
Realistic Floor: 80% of 2016 Francisco Lindor with better hair
4) Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals (Age: 19, Previous Rank: 34)
Potential Earnings: $35+
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, RBI, SB
Realistic Ceiling: A properly appreciated Starling Marte
Realistic Floor: Byron Buxton if he never reaches his potential
Tier Two: Prospects You Want to Take Home to Mom
5) Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets (Age: 21, Previous Rank: HM)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, SB
Realistic Ceiling: Xander Bogaerts with inverted power/speed
Realistic Floor: Wilmer Flores II: Tokyo Drift
6) Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 14)
Potential Earnings: $30-35
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Vintage Tulo without the speed
Realistic Floor: Jhonny Peralta in Coors
7) Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 24)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor
Realistic Ceiling: That OF2 you’re praying makes it back to you in Round 4
Realistic Floor: Will make us feel dumb for finally ranking him over Clint Frazier
8) Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 22)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: 80% of Josh Donaldson
Realistic Floor: 80% of Adrian Gonzalez
9) J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 6)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in R
Realistic Ceiling: A steady, dependable top-10 shortstop
Realistic Floor: A boring, predictable top-15 shortstop
10) Clint Frazier, OF, New York Yankees (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 23)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: The next Yankee baseball fans turn on
Realistic Floor: The next Yankee Yankee fans turn on
Tier Three: Going Steady
11) Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 5)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP
Realistic Ceiling: The good Chris Archer
Realistic Floor: Righty Carlos Rodon … or a closer
12) Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs (Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $30-35
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in R, HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: The reason Mauricio Rubio spontaneously combusts one day
Realistic Floor: Oh no, is that Josh Willingham’s music??
13) Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 41)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Odubel Herrera, but in Coors
Realistic Floor: Ender Inciarte, but in Coors
14) Franklin Barreto, SS/2B, Oakland Athletics (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 32)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG
Realistic Ceiling: An AVG-driven SS with enough power/speed to make you swoon
Realistic Floor: An AVG-driven OF with enough speed to be useful
15) Nick Williams, OF, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 13)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: An OF3 who flirts with OF1 in his best seasons
Realistic Floor: Ben’s new Garin Cecchini
16) Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 21, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in R, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Scott Rolen without the game-changing defense
Realistic Floor: A consistently borderline top-10 third baseman
17) Lewis Brinson, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 17)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in R, HR, RBI, SB
Realistic Ceiling: Lots and lots of Combo Meals
Realistic Floor: B.J. Upton with more #want
Tier Four: Well Worth the Gamble
18) Jorge Mateo, SS, New York Yankees (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 33)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in SB
Realistic Ceiling: Dee Gordon, minus some AVG and plus a little pop
Realistic Floor: Travis Jankowski with MI eligibility
19) Josh Bell, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 36)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG
Realistic Ceiling: Brandon Belt
Realistic Floor: Brandon Belt
20) Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 21, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Cody Bae-llinger
Realistic Floor: Cody Meh-llinger
21) Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 44)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R
Realistic Ceiling: Who Starlin Castro was supposed to be
Realistic Floor: Starlin Castro
22) Manuel Margot, OF, San Diego Padres (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 31)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in R, SB
Realistic Ceiling: A nice speed-based OF3 with a really high floor
Realistic Floor: An okay speed-based OF5 with a really low ceiling
23) Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 21)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in K, ERA
Realistic Ceiling: A high-K, moderate-WHIP SP3 who occasionally frustrates
Realistic Floor: A high-K, high-WHIP SP5 who frequently frustrates
24) Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 11)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA
Realistic Ceiling: 220-plus strikeouts a year brought to you by modern science
Realistic Floor: The man who makes “The BP 101 Jinx” a thing.
*Note: Reyes ranked at No. 6 before his injury/Tommy John surgery
25) Corey Ray, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 22, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in R, SB
Realistic Ceiling: Did you enjoy peak Charlie Blackmon?
Realistic Floor: Could you live without Kevin Pillar?
26) Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves (Age: 19, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Next year’s Victor Robles
Realistic Floor: A cautionary tale for those who love similarity scores
27) Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 20)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Jay Bruce before everyone hated Jay Bruce
Realistic Floor: Hitting up Eric Thames for Korean restaurant recs
28) Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 99)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Jay Bruce before everyone hated Jay Bruce
Realistic Floor: “A right-handed Brandon Moss” doesn’t sound too great
29) Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 58)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor
Realistic Ceiling: A 20-homer backstop who was worth the wait
Realistic Floor: A 12-homer backstop who wasn’t
30) Robert Gsellman, RHP, New York Mets (Age: 23, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, ERA, WHIP
Realistic Ceiling: The pitcher who finally gets Dan Warthen to warlock status
Realistic Floor: Zack Wheeler without the breakout
31) Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 52)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R
Realistic Ceiling: A pretty solid Hunter Pence sequel
Realistic Floor: Angel Pagan with a less contradictory name
32) Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 69)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in K, ERA
Realistic Ceiling: Carlos Carrasco
Realistic Floor: A candidate to be moved to the bullpen every spring
33) Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 54)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor
Realistic Ceiling: A strong MI option or reasonable starting SS
Realistic Floor: A tolerable MI option or weak starting 2B/3B
Tier Five: Safe and Sound or Risky but Rewarding
34) Jason Groome, LHP, Boston Red Sox (Age: 18, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $30-35
Risk Factor: Extreme
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP
Realistic Ceiling: Jon Lester
Realistic Floor: Left at the altar
35) Anderson Espinoza, RHP, San Diego Padres (Age: 19, Previous Rank: 59)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP
Realistic Ceiling: Could one day be drafted before Clayton Kershaw
Realistic Floor: A letter of apology to Dave Dombrowski
36) Ozzie Albies, 2B/SS, Atlanta Braves (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 64)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, SB
Realistic Ceiling: Who Ben’s been telling you Jose Peraza is
Realistic Floor: Erick Aybar before Erick Aybar was trash
37) Dan Vogelbach, 1B/UT, Seattle Mariners (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 37)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Moon of My Life
Realistic Floor: My Sun and Stars
38) Josh Hader, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 22, Previous Rank: HM)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in ERA, K
Realistic Ceiling: Too blessed (with Ks) to be stressed (about WHIP)
Realistic Floor: Remember Jonathan Sanchez?
39) Zack Collins, C, Chicago White Sox (Age: 22, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: The best version of Brian McCann
Realistic Floor: The best version of Justin Bour
40) Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox (Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP
Realistic Ceiling: Baby Thor
Realistic Floor: Trevor Rosenthal
41) Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 84)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP
Realistic Ceiling: A legitimate, bonafide SP1
Realistic Floor: He’s a Dodgers pitcher, so … hurt?
42) Bradley Zimmer, OF, Cleveland Indians (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 9)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in R, SB
Realistic Ceiling: Enough power and speed that you won’t mind the AVG
Realistic Floor: Looks too much like Eli Manning
43) Mickey Moniak, OF, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 18, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, SB
Realistic Ceiling: We use this comp too much, but better Adam Eaton
Realistic Floor: We use this comp too much, but worse Ender Inciarte
44) Isan Diaz, SS, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Aledmys Diaz (if Aledmys Diaz is real)
Realistic Floor: Marcus Semien
45) Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 87)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, ERA, WHIP
Realistic Ceiling: Jordan Zimmermann before everyone freaked out
Realistic Floor: Whatever happened to Jim Mecir, anyway?
46) Tyler O’Neill, OF, Seattle Mariners (Age: 21, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: The good Marcell Ozuna
Realistic Floor: A Mariners prospect
47) Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Chicago Cubs (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 45)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in R
Realistic Ceiling: Ben and Craig won’t want to talk to Bret about him ever again
Realistic Floor: Bret won’t want to talk to Ben and Craig about him ever again
48) Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 25)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG
Realistic Ceiling: Tapioca pudding
Realistic Floor: A faster-than-normal oil change
49) Kyle Lewis, OF, Seattle Mariners (Age: 21, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: The type of solid all-around OF3 that always gets underdrafted
Realistic Floor: A Mariners prospect
50) Blake Rutherford, OF, New York Yankees (Age: 19, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Such a gosh-darn well-rounded OF3
Realistic Floor: Hanging out with Slade Heathcott and Mason Williams
51) Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Chicago White Sox (Age: 23, Previous Rank: HM)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in ERA, K
Realistic Ceiling: We knew that third pitch would come around
Realistic Floor: We knew he was a reliever
52) Amir Garrett, LHP, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 24, Previous Rank: HM)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, ERA
Realistic Ceiling: A solid SP4/5 who’s death on lefties
Realistic Floor: Way more fun to watch than he is to own
53) Alex Verdugo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R
Realistic Ceiling: The good Gerardo Parra
Realistic Floor: The bad Gerardo Parra
54) Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians (Age: 21, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG
Realistic Ceiling: A top-10 fantasy backstop for many years
Realistic Floor: The new posterboy for ignoring catcher prospects
Tier Six: These Next Rankings Will Shock You!
55) Leody Taveras, OF, Texas Rangers (Age: 18, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Extreme
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, SB
Realistic Ceiling: A five-category OF1
Realistic Floor: The subject of many angry future Bat Signals
56) Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals (Age: 18, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Extreme
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: The full Nomar Mazara experience
Realistic Floor: Gets to meet Nomar Mazara at Rangers FanFest
57) Yusniel Diaz, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 73)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor
Realistic Ceiling: Peak Melky Cabrera (which is more of a compliment than you think)
Realistic Floor: Denard Span (which is more of an insult than you think)
58) Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta Braves (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 39)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K
Realistic Ceiling: The usable version of Matt Moore
Realistic Floor: Andrew Miller’s career path
59) A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics (Age: 21, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in ERA, K
Realistic Ceiling: The optimist’s Sean Manaea
Realistic Floor: A frustrating SP5, who should be more
60) Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 70)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG
Realistic Ceiling: A ham-and-cheese sandwich with a delightful honey dijon spread
Realistic Floor: A room-temperature ham-and-cheese sandwich
61) Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 18, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Extreme
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, HR, R, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: The Prince That Was Promised
Realistic Floor: “You are no son of mine”
62) Chance Sisco, C, Baltimore Orioles (Age: 22, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG
Realistic Ceiling: Yadier Molina (again, fantasy only)
Realistic Floor: Not a catcher, so not worth your time
63) Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, ERA, WHIP
Realistic Ceiling: A legitimate Gerrit Cole replacement
Realistic Floor: Just another right-handed broken dream
64) Sandy Alcantara, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (Age: 21, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in ERA, K
Realistic Ceiling: Look at all those nice things we said about Francis Martes
Realistic Floor: *stares wistfully at Randall Delgado*
65) Cal Quantrill, RHP, San Diego Padres (Age: 22, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Extreme
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, ERA, WHIP
Realistic Ceiling: A no. 2 starter in Petco looks a lot like a fantasy no. 1
Realistic Floor: A draftee who already had TJ? What could possibly go wrong?
66) Franklyn Kilome, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 74)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Extreme
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP
Realistic Ceiling: A top-25 name on this list next season
Realistic Floor: Not even close to this list next season
Tier Seven: There’s Absolutely No Theme Here
67) Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 22, Previous Rank: HM)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Hmm, let’s say Mike Napoli?
Realistic Floor: Subdued Tellez
68) Roman Quinn, OF, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 23, Previous Rank: HM)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in SB
Realistic Ceiling: Jarrod Dyson with playing time
Realistic Floor: There’s a reason Dyson doesn’t play that much
69) Kevin Newman, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 23, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $10-15
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor
Realistic Ceiling: A nice bang-for-your buck MI option
Realistic Floor: An NL-only mainstay
70) Yohander Mendez, LHP, Texas Rangers (Age: 22, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, ERA
Realistic Ceiling: Jose Quintana, were he only as good as most assume he is
Realistic Floor: Simply Yohand Mendez, toggling between roles
71) Jose De Leon, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 35)
Potential Earnings: $10-15
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor
Realistic Ceiling: A solid, safe, dependable SP5
Realistic Floor: We can all sympathize with peaking in our early 20s, no?
72) Brett Phillips, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 51)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor
Realistic Ceiling: A reminder that sometimes these guys face bumps in the road
Realistic Floor: Best known for his haunting laugh
73) Lourdes Gurriel, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 23, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor
Realistic Ceiling: A top-10 second baseman
Realistic Floor: An OF5 who never satisfies you
74) Tom Murphy, C, Colorado Rockies (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 96)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Who we wanted Derek Norris to be
Realistic Floor: Derek Norris
75) Trent Clark, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 66)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R
Realistic Ceiling: An OF3/4 you grab to bolster your AVG
Realistic Floor: Only playable in leagues with neck circumference as a category
76) Willie Calhoun, “2B,” Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 22, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Neil Walker is pretty good, no?
Realistic Floor: A cheap DFS option when he spot starts
77) Luis Alexander Basabe, OF, Chicago White Sox (Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in SB
Realistic Ceiling: Next year’s Ronald Acuna
Realistic Floor: We don’t miss Tyrone Taylor either
78) Jahmai Jones, Los Angeles Angels (Age: 19, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, SB
Realistic Ceiling: Jacoby Ellsbury (minus that MVP-type year)
Realistic Floor: Michael Taylor (the Nationals one)
79) Anthony Alford, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 53)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in R, SB
Realistic Ceiling: 30-plus steals and an AVG that fluctuates wildly with BABIP
Realistic Floor: Useful in those weird-ass leagues that try to factor in defense
80) Ryan McMahon, 3B/1B, Colorado Rockies (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 29)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: Jake Lamb in Coors
Realistic Floor: Mike Olt/Will Middlebrooks/D.J. Peterson, etc
81) Dominic Smith, 1B, New York Mets (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 92)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG
Realistic Ceiling: Eric Hosmer without the steals (don’t @ me)
Realistic Floor: A constant reminder of Bret’s fallibility
82) Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 56)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W
Realistic Ceiling: A fantasy SP4/5 you really wish would get traded
Realistic Floor: A fantasy spot starter you really wish would get traded
83) Albert Almora, OF, Chicago Cubs (Age: 22, Previous Rank: HM)
Potential Earnings: $10-15
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor
Realistic Ceiling: If Jon Jay ate one of those Super Mario mushrooms
Realistic Floor: Jon Jay
Tier Eight: Lottery Tickets, More 2017 Dudes or Guys We Just Like
84) Kevin Maitan, SS, Atlanta Braves (Age: 17, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Extreme
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, HR, R, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: A top-5 name on this list in, like, 2020
Realistic Floor: A Trump press conference
85) Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians (Age: 19, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in WHIP, K
Realistic Ceiling: A strong SP2
Realistic Floor: Falls through a crack in the floor and is never heard from again
86) Matt Thaiss, 1B, Los Angeles Angels (Age: 21, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R
Realistic Ceiling: Freddie Freeman before the power outburst
Realistic Floor: Melky Cabrera at first base
87) Matt Manning, RHP, Detroit Tigers (Age: 19, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Extreme
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP
Realistic Ceiling: See where Tyler Glasnow ranks this year?
Realistic Floor: See where, oh, I don’t know, Hunter Harvey ranks this year?
88) Derek Fisher, OF, Houston Astros (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 78)
Potential Earnings: $10-15
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor
Realistic Ceiling: Who we want Steven Souza Jr. to be
Realistic Floor: There’s a reason we harp on hit tools
89) Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 50)
Potential Earnings: $10-15
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor
Realistic Ceiling: Strikeouts, a high WHIP and lots of bullpen rumors
Realistic Floor: Carson Fulmer
90) Carson Fulmer, RHP, Chicago White Sox (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 65)
Potential Earnings: $10-15
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor
Realistic Ceiling: Strikeouts, a high WHIP and lots of bullpen rumors
Realistic Floor: Robert Stephenson
91) Grant Holmes, RHP, Oakland Athletics (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 57)
Potential Earnings: $10-15
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor
Realistic Ceiling: An SP4/5 who provides bulk strikeouts and wins
Realistic Floor: Your classic back-end A’s starter
92) Justin Dunn, RHP, New York Mets (Age: 21, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in ERA
Realistic Ceiling: Marcus Stroman is suchhhhh a lazy comp, but …
Realistic Floor: A good reliever you don’t care about
93) Trey Mancini, 1B, Baltimore Orioles (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 77)
Potential Earnings: $5-10
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor
Realistic Ceiling: You didn’t really think we’d do this without a C.J. Cron comp, did you?
Realistic Floor: As lame as a running C.J. Cron gag
94) Thomas Szapucki, LHP, New York Mets (Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Extreme
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in ERA, K
Realistic Ceiling: Daenerys Targaryen
Realistic Floor: Viserys Targaryen
95) Bobby Bradley, 1B, Cleveland Indians (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 68)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: 30+ homers and an average you can live with
Realistic Floor: The poor man’s Chris Carter, so … in Triple-A, Japan or Korea
96) Greg Allen, OF, Cleveland Indians (Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $10-15
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG
Realistic Ceiling: Ender Inciarte with more OBP
Realistic Floor: Jarrod Dyson with less speed
97) Lucas Erceg, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 21, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in RBI
Realistic Ceiling: The player we hope Nick Castellanos is
Realistic Floor: A Menlo College Hall of Famer
98) Delvin Perez, SS, St. Louis Cardinals (Age: 18, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Extreme
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in SB
Realistic Ceiling: A top-10 shortstop for a long time
Realistic Floor: A Swiss slalom course
99) Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins (Age: 19, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Extreme
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: A powerful OF2
Realistic Floor: Another reason to overuse the phrase “cold-weather kid”
100) Dylan Cozens, OF, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 22, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: An intriguing source of power/speed
Realistic Floor: A Quad-A guy you talk yourself into one too many times
101) Anderson Tejeda, SS, Texas Rangers (Age: 18, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Extreme
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in RBI
Realistic Ceiling: The next Addison Russell
Realistic Floor: A reason to make this a top 100 next year
The Reed Rule
These two players, linked by surname and not by blood, are not technically prospect-eligible due to service time, but do have fewer than 130 at bats and 50 innings pitched, respectively. They would have ranked as follows:
44.5) A.J. Reed, 1B, Houston Astros (Age:23 , Previous Rank: 12)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI
Realistic Ceiling: A top-15 first basemen, despite the Ks
Realistic Floor: Matt Adams
58.5) Cody Reed, LHP, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 38)
Potential Earnings: $15-20
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in K
Realistic Ceiling: A strikeout-heavy SP3
Realistic Floor: A really good left-handed reliever
Honorable Mention
Kolby Allard, LHP, ATL; Aristides Aquino, OF, CIN; Jake Bauers, 1B/OF, TB; Walker Buehler, RHP, LAD; Jeimer Candelario, 3B, CHC; Matt Chapman, 3B, OAK; Hunter Dozier, 3B/OF, KC; Alec Hansen, RHP, CHW; Tyler Jay, LHP, MIN; James Kaprielian, RHP, NYY; Joshua Lowe, 3B, TB; Adrian Morejon, LHP, SD: Jacob Nottingham, C/1B, MIL; Jorge Ona, OF, SD; Luis Ortiz, RHP, MIL; Harold Ramirez, OF, TOR; Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, TOR; Justus Sheffield, LHP, NYY; Mike Soroka, RHP, ATL; Taylor Trammell, OF, CIN; Tyler Wade, IF/OF, NYY; Forrest Whitley, RHP, HOU
Thank you for reading
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Yep, this is a good list.
The ceilings and floors are always fantastic on these. Personal favorite may be the Jason Groome floor.
It looks like the Dynasty 101 has a slightly different order than the newly drafted/signed player rankings that Bret put out weeks ago. Is this due to commiseration with a co-writer, or change of opinion?
One question though: Why is Tapia 13 on this list but 42 on the baseball prospectus 101? If you really believe that he's either Herrera or Inciarte(but in Coors), shouldn't he be higher than 42? Those are pretty nice players who would be even better in Coors.
Thanks
1) Tapia gets a boost for Coors in this list but is evaluated independently of Coors in the IRL 101
2) Tapia gets dinged a bit for his defense (he's probably a LF) on the IRL 101
3) Bret and I did not contribute to the IRL 101 rankings
Thanks for the list, friends. Great work, as always.
While I found a lot of the comments amusing, a lot of the realistic floors seemed pretty well-off. But I suppose the risk factor has to be mixed into the ceilings/floors as well.
I'll give a few examples-
Almora floor is John Jay. Jay's had a long career now, and had 2 or 3 years as fantasy useful with the Cards. I'd think Almora realistic floor would be AAA guy who gets called up for injury replacement because he can't hit, or is an annual Sept callup.
I'm not going to give any other examples, because after thinking it over some more, it all depends on our perspective for the comps you give. I'm an avid NL only player, so Jay was a useful player for a while. I looked at Jay for a few years as a potential 10-15 HR/SB guy with good avg. For the offensively challenged Almora, that'd be a good career. Whereas a mixed player likely looks down on Jay. or maybe one may look at the last year or two and see Jay's opportunity as an everyday or strong-side platoon is gone and he is just a lefty bench bat for the next 4-6 years.
This list format was not meant for long drawn-out explanations of the ceilings, floors, and risks. If I want to find out why Almora or any other player comps that way, I should just look into it myself.
The floors just seemed optimistic when I read it, and maybe I should just enjoy the thoughtful rankings, the humor, and any I disagree with should cause me to look into why.
Thanks for the work. Enjoy the lists and the podcast and everything.
Nonie Williams, Suely Matias, Estevan Florial, Brandon Marsh, Jesus Sanchez, Brayan Hernandez, Shed Long...any of these kids come close considering the tools?
One suggestion though. While I love the humor, I'd appreciate more the ability to actually understand the ceiling/floor of some of these players.
-Lots and lots of Combo Meals
-The reason Mauricio Rubio spontaneously combusts one day
-Moon of My Life
-Ben and Craig won’t want to talk to Bret about him ever again
-A faster-than-normal oil change
-A ham-and-cheese sandwich with a delightful honey dijon spread
-A Trump press conference
-Looks too much like Eli Manning
I get what you're trying to say. "Lots and lots of combo meals" = high ceiling. But what kind of high ceiling? Are we thinking Matt Kemp here, or Torii Hunter? I'm just using this as an example because I have Brinson and know his comps, but some of the other ones leave me thinking "man, I wish I knew what the comp actually means, because "a faster-than normal oil change" can be good, but it doesn't give me any idea of how good or bad.
Yes the Padres are bad, but they have some pretty good players. A future allstar floor with the red sox (based off your own lists) now has a ceiling of an OF3 on the Padres. Just seems a little off.
In all seriousness, ignoring the "you hate my team" stuff, there's no reason to project Margot as more than an OF3 right now. Yes, steals are great, but Margot doesn't project to be a 40-steal guy. And what do you have outside of that? He's unlikely to be an impact batting average contributor, though he has the potential get on base and hit at the top of the lineup, which is why we gave him impact potential in runs scored. The power doesn't look like it will be a factor and the profile doesn't leave much room for RBI.
With that profile, and really good CF defense, he could certainly be an occasional All-Star. There are plenty of All-Stars who are really good, but not elite, fantasy performers. And we do like him quite a bit, which is why he was ranked in the top-25.
I just find it interesting. I see other sites say 15 HR, 30ish Steals, and a decent avg in the .270ish range. Its hard to peg what is run total will be until we see how myers,renfroe, and others turn out. But put it together and that seems quite a bit like a starling marte lite to me.
"but with the potential to hit .270 and slug 15-18 homers at peak, he could provide Brett Gardner-type fantasy value (the 30-steal version, not the 50-steal version)"
My comp is different but the end result seems the same. I dunno, maybe my thought of what constitutes an OF3 is different. Everyone always has differing opinions, it's what makes this fun, I just see a lot more in this profile.