As Major League Baseball gets ready to start another decade, who will be the most valuable players for the next decade? To find out, let’s have a fantasy baseball draft, only this one goes by some different rules. Instead of a fantasy scoring system, we’ll base the value on real baseball value, using something like our own WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player). Just as importantly, there will be no trading and no future draft. In other words, if you are one of those people who are scared off by both the inconsistency and inability to depend on the health of pitchers, you best look else where, because just like real-world baseball, you can’t just ignore pitching because it’s risky. You have to take some, or have none.
Now that we’ve got the rules down, let’s start drafting.
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins
2010 Birthday: 27 on December 23
In the last three seasons, Ramirez has been worth just short of 25 wins, and he’s not even entering his prime yet. Sure he’s not a very good shortstop in the field, but when you are talking about a 925-950 OPS every year, who cares?
2. Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks
2010 Birthday: 23 on August 25
Upton showed up on an MVP ballot in 2009, and on a better team, he would have been written on more. Even scarier is that his .300/.366/.532 season is just scratching the surface, because while it was Upton’s third pro season, he was still the sixth-youngest player in the game. Offensively, he remains on a Griffey-esque career path, and I don’t mean Sr.
3. Joe Mauer, C, Twins
2010 Birthday: 27 on April 19
The power that scouts had been projecting for nearly a decade finally showed in 2009, as Mauer had one of the best seasons in the history of catchers. The scary part? He might just be entering his prime. The only question at this point is how man more years can he catch, and the smart money is on him being a first baseman somewhere around the middle of the decade.
4. Tim Lincecum, RHP, Giants
2010 Birthday: 26 on June 15
The winner of back-to-back Cy Young awards, his 2009 year was even better than his 2008, with both his hit and walk rates going down appreciably. Beyond being the best pitcher in baseball, he’s also arguably the one whose health can be counted on the most, as he seems like that one-in-a-decade guy where innings and pitch counts just don’t matter. By the end of the decade, he’ll be pushing 3000 career strikeouts, or more likely, he’ll already be there.
5. Zack Greinke, RHP, Royals
2010 Birthday: 27 on October 21
The 2009 season was a magical year for Greinke, but Lincecum’s slight age advantage and longer track record of greatness gives him the edge. With his non-performance problems seemingly behind him, all systems are go for Greinke, who Royals fans will be able to enjoy for at least three more years.
6. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays
2010 Birthday: 25 on October 7
The best third baseman in the game and just 24, Longoria has developed into a Gold Glove defender at the hot corner, and while his 2009 seasons looks to be a statistical doppelganger of his rookie year, there are indications of growth, primarily more walks and fewer strikeouts, both of which bode well for further growth. From the useless information department, Longoria is a perfect 16-for-16 stealing bases so far in his career.
7. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers
2010 Birthday: 27 on November 17
It amazing to see the Braun has already amassed 974 total bases in his first three pro seasons, a fact made all the more remarkable by the fact that he started 2007 in the minor and played just 113 games for Milwaukee. His athleticism should make him effective for the entire decade, with a slow aging process, and he’s the kind of hitter who can annually put up 200 hits, 80 of them going for extra bases, into his early 30s.
8. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals
2010 Birthday: 22 on July 20
Sure he’s never pitched an inning in the majors, but if you were setting odds, who would be your pitcher most likely to win three Cy Young awards in the upcoming decade? If Strasburg isn’t among your top three, you are only deluding yourself. On a scouting level, this guy is Tim Lincecum with half a foot more height, a better changeup, and a command that’s a full two grades higher than the Giants’ star.
9. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Mariners
2010 Birthday: 24 on April 8
Hernandez delivered his first truly great year in 2009, and with such an early start to his big-league career, he’ll be a 25-year-old free agent after the 2011 season, and in line for the largest contract ever given to a pitcher, maybe even by a wide margin. Younger, and arguably more established than everyone above him, the only reason he ranks a touch lower is the fear of breakdown, as he’s had some minor bumps in the road here and there, while scouts have always loved his stuff, but have also always worried about his mechanics.
10. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals
2010 Birthday: 30 on January 16
The oldest player on this list by a wide margin, but also the best current player in baseball who is showing no signs of slowing down. Even conservatively, Pujols is going to be pushing 3500 hits and 700 home runs by the time I’m writing this piece again ten years from now.
11. Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers
2010 Birthday: 26 on May 9
The youngest player even to hit 50 home runs in a season, Fielder threatened to do it a second time in 2009, and chances are excellent that it will happen at least once more in the upcoming decade. Any purely offensively measurement pegs him as a better hitter than Braun, but with that body, there a chance of a Mo Vaughn-like precipitous decline in his early 30s.
12.Jon Lester, LHP, Red Sox
2010 Birthday: 26 on January 7
This ranking surprised even me, which is shocking considering both the fan base and media coverage of the Red Sox. Still, he’s been among the American League’s Top 10 pitchers for each of the last two seasons, and with a more gaudy won-loss record, would get more attention. He still hasn’t peaked yet, and could have a Cy Young in his future still.
13.Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
2010 Birthday: 21 on August 9
The top position player prospect in the game, Heyward has a chance at opening 2010 in the big leagues, and even if that doesn’t work out, he’ll be in Atlanta well before he can legally have a drink to celebrate his accomplishment. A potential “face of the franchise”-level talent, Heyward hits for average, hits for power, draws walks, and even runs a bit. If that sounds like Dale Murphy, you’re not the first to think that.
14.Adam Jones, CF, Orioles
2010 Birthday: 25 on August 25
It seemed as if 2009 might be Jones’ bust-out campaign, but second-half injuries mean Orioles fans will have to wait until this year. After spending most of his minor-league career as a shortstop, Jones has quickly developed into one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, and like Longoria, more walks and fewer strikeouts in 2009 portend even more offense to come.
15.Brett Anderson, LHP, Athletics
2010 Birthday: 22 on February 1
Eight high school pitchers were selected ahead of Anderson in the 2006 draft, of which seven pitched at Double-A or below in 2009. Orioles right-hander Chris Tillman reached the major last year, but Anderson was among the American League’s top pitchers during the second half of the year, with a 3.48 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning. He’s just getting started.
16.Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates
2010 Birthday: 24 on October 10
Not only were the Pirates awful during the last decade, they were incredibly boring. McCutchen can at least change the latter with his power/speed game, and while his ceiling falls short of MVP level, he could hit 20 bombs and swipe 30 bases annually well into the latter part of the ’10s.
17.Tommy Hanson, RHP, Braves
2010 Birthday: 24 on August 28
Had the Braves opened the season with Hanson in the rotation (which would have been the right decision), we’d be talking about your reigning National League Rookie of the Year. Instead, we’re talking about one of the circuit’s best young arms. The only thing keeping him from ranking higher is that some feel he’s at his ceiling of a consistent 15-18 game winner as opposed to a true ace.
18.Rick Porcello, RHP, Tigers
2010 Birthday: 22 on December 27
Porcello kept his straight fastball in his back pocket during much of 2009, as he learned on the job how to set up hitters and use his defense, but the Porcello everyone saw during the 163rd game of the season, when he whiffed eight Twins over 5 ⅔ IP, was the real deal, and he’s among the best choices around for a 2010 breakout.
19.Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers
2010 Birthday: 26 on September 23
Playing in a more friendly park, Kemp’s numbers would make him a no-brainer, but even with the limits of Chavez Ravine, he might the best candidate for multiple 30-30 seasons in the next decade. His tools and athleticism should lead to a graceful aging process, and if he even ends up in a better offensive environment, he could put up monster stats.
20.David Wright, 3B, Mets
2010 Birthday: 28 on December 20
How great is it to hit .307/.390/.447 and have everyone talk about how bad your year was? That’s what happens when a team as a whole fails to live up to expectations. As big a nightmare as 2009 was, Wright remains one of the games best young talents, and one who is just hitting his prime.
Just missed (in alphabetical order): Pedro Alvarez, Pirates; Elvis Andrus, Rangers; Gordon Beckham, White Sox; Miguel Cabrera, Tigers; Robinson Cano, Yankees; Alcides Escobar, Brewes; Neftali Feliz, Rangers; Yovani Gallardo, Brewers; Bryce Harper, College of Southern Nevada; Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers; Mat Latos, Padres; Jesus Montero, Yankees; David Price, Rays; Anthony Ranaudo, Louisiana State; Carlos Santana, Indians; Grady Sizemore, Indians; Mike Stanton, Marlins; Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies; Justin Verlander, Tigers; Matt Wieters, Orioles; Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals.
A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider 
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Also verrrry surprised about Adam Jones and Andrew McCutchen, and Anderson to a lesser extent. Maybe i'm underrating their speed/power packages and defense, but they seem like they've got a bit too much downside for the list. Over Zimmerman? Yikes.
What would this list have looked like in 1999?
I don't like the replacement level argument at all. Mauer and a (fantasy) replacement level 3B is going to get you more offense than Longoria and a replacement level C. If given the opportunity, you need to take advantage of position scarcity.
Had this list been generated last year, I'm guessing Wieters would have been in the top 10 and now he is lumped with the honorable mentions after what looked like a successful (unless your name is PECOTA) rookie season. Doesn't that expose the flaw in this reasoning?
"To find out, let's have a fantasy baseball draft, only this one goes by some different rules. Instead of a fantasy scoring system, we'll base the value on real baseball value, using something like our own WARP."
I see nothing in there about salary considerations. Values are based on WARP.
You can't expect a performance based analysis including prospects to make perfect sense.
Still, I'd be willing to lay a series of bets that Utley will accumulate more WARP between 2010-2019 than Heyward, Anderson, Montero, Harper, Stanton, Ranaudo, Santana, or Escobar. I might not win all the bets...but I'd win enough to make a fistful of dollars.
Not Joe Morgan
Not Craig Biggio
Not Ryne Sandberg
Not Rod Carew
Utley's decline will probably start around 2013 or 14 and will be annoyingly prolonged, just like most great 2B's. But an "all-decade" player in the 2010's? No way.
What would you like me to do next? :)
Imagine that no one was on a team right now. Now, imagine you had to draft players for your team. What would your draft look like? This is what Kevin's looks like. Make your own draft.
Loved the article, but would have also loved to see the batters and pitchers split up. I understand why that didn't happen, I just think that would be interesting.
In reality, if you were doing a startup draft right now, it's not entirely clear that a time horizon as long as 10 years is what should drive your decision-making, as it would cause you to leave some talent on the table (e.g., Utley, ARod) that should win a lot of games for you in the next 3-5 years (if not in years 6-10).
Also 8 pitchers in the top twenty is probably way too high. Especially when 1 hasn't played in the bigs and two are rookies. I don't know if 8 pitchers don't have the last ten years highest warp totals(i doubt it), but i'm sure pegging them is harder. 10 years is a long time to throw 200 innings a year.
Hanram may project for higher peaks from now going forward, but no one else has a better chance of not sucking than those old guys. I'd draft pujols first, a-rod sometime in the top ten.
He's had a comparable career to Justin Verlander and is 2 years younger.
Regarding Miguel Cabrera (and maybe Pablo too), my hunch is that his body type does not exactly scream "long term", and that while he has been amazing so far, it is not unreasonable to expect a sharp decline within the next 5 years.
Man does 'Monster prospect could easily win MVP/CyYoung" get used too much or what? Ask Mike Moustakas how his MVP career is going.
I would think either he or Roy Halladay was the top pitcher of the decade, and Halladay himself entered the decade with only a 9-7 record and 3.73 ERA.
The point is, it's tough to pick the top players ten years out. I think Kevin did a nice job here.
If I were going to pick a second Giant for this list, it would be Buster Posey, who I believe has a fine chance to become a top all-around catcher.
Next would be Madison Bumgarner, who if he regains his fastball, could become better than Cain.
Pablo Sandoval wouldn't be a horrible choice. He might decline in 2010, but at only 23 he could also continue to improve. As recently as 2006, Pablo was a very mediocre hitter in Low A ball.
Cain could be a dark horse. If 2009 was for real, his color would lighten considerably and he would move closer to the front of the horse. The one significant and hopefully sustainable improvement Matt made in 2009 was his control.
A decade ago, the Giants would have had no one even close to this list.
BA recently said that Posey "draws legitimate comparisons to Joe Mauer... a pure hitter with terrific strike-zone awareness, and his clean, unfettered swing allows him to drive pitches from pole to pole." They also note that his arm strength and accuracy grade well-above-average, and even use the "perennial all-star" tag.
Not saying he should be Top 20 as I realize it's an exclusive list and there are legitimate reasons to include/exclude from that short a list, but I'm a bit surprised he didn't make the "just missed list".
On the other hand: If a similar list had been made 5 years ago for the 'decade' 2005-2014, would you have put Delmon Young on the top 20 list? Probably. Wouldn't have turned out to be a good prediction, but might have been a reasonable position to take at the time.
1. Albert Pujols - 82.8
2. Alex Rodriguez - 72.1
3. Barry Bonds - 66.5
4. Mariano Rivera - 57.8
5. Lance Berkman - 53.9
6. Carlos Beltran - 53.6
7. Chipper Jones - 51.7
8. Jim Edmonds - 50.8
9. Scott Rolen - 50.5
10. Jeff Kent - 49.9
11. Bobby Abreu - 47.1
12. Roy Oswalt - 47.1
13. Javier Vazquez - 47.0
14. Todd Helton - 46.5
15. Jorge Posada - 45.9
16. Miguel Tejada - 45.8
17. Johan Santana - 45.2
18. Manny Ramirez - 44.9
19. Ichiro Suzuki - 44.6
20. Roy Halladay - 44.3
Now, how many of those would you have guessed? And how many do you think anybody could have guessed in 1999? I mean, the best player of the decade had just been picked in the 13th round that spring.
It's a fun topic to think about, but why get so defensive about who's where?
The other take away from this list is that Pujols has to be number one, as bonds basically shows. Pujols is years younger than bonds and has never been anything less than great since hitting the bigs.
In addition to being underrated by more traditional stats, Vazquez has been incredibly healthy.
I've been trying to think who I would have put on this list in 1999. Vlad Guerrero, Andruw Jones, Pedro Martinez, Mike Mussina, J.D. Drew, Eric Chavez, and Nomar are all guys who could have been locks for a list like this. Edgardo Alfonso, anybody?